Tag Archives: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

2009-03-16 USER

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Mar)

Survey -30.80
Actual -38.23
Prior -34.65
Revised n/a

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Mar)

the

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Mar)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Jan)

Survey $45.0B
Actual -$43.0B
Prior $34.8B
Revised $34.7B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -$148.9B
Prior $74.0B
Revised $86.2B

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TIC ALLX (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 1 (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 2 (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 3 (Jan)

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Industrial Production MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -1.9%

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Industrial Production YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.2%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Feb)

Survey 71%
Actual 70.9%
Prior 72.0%
Revised 71.9%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Feb)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Survey 9
Actual 9
Prior 9
Revised n/a

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 1 (Mar)

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Mar)


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2009-01-15 USER

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Producer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -1.9%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey -1.1%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • PPI -1.9% m/m and now -0.9% y/y; core +0.2%; consumer goods category -2.6% m/m
  • Pipeline pressures continue to plunge: core intermediate goods -3% m/m and core crude -2.2%
  • Lots of Asian indicators suggesting price pressures will continue to plummet, especially in manufacturing
  • Japan machine tool orders – 72% y/y
  • Taiwan exports -42% y/y
  • Korean GDP -16% annualized in Q4!

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10)

Survey 503K
Actual 524K
Prior 467K
Revised 470K

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Continuing Claims (Jan 3)

Survey 4620K
Actual 4497K
Prior 4611K
Revised 4612K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 10)

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims up 54k to 524k as number reverts back to pre-holiday levels
  • Continuing claims drop 115k to 4497k; as duration of unemployment lengthens, this number may become more volatile as individuals exhaust their claims (unless benefits are extended, which might happen)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Jan)

Survey -25.00
Actual -22.20
Prior -25.76
Revised -27.88

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Jan)

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Philadelphia Fed (Jan)

Survey -35.0
Actual -24.3
Prior -32.9
Revised -36.1

 
Karim writes:

  • Philly Fed improves from -36.1 to -24.3, but remains well into contraction territory
  • Employment component falls from -28.6 to -39.1

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Jan)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Jan)


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2008-12-15 USER

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Dec)

Survey -28.00
Actual -25.76
Prior -25.43
Revised n/a

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Dec)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Oct)

Survey $40.0B
Actual $1.5B
Prior $66.2B
Revised $65.4B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual $286.3B
Prior $143.4B
Revised $142.6B

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TIC ALLX (Oct)

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TIC TABLE 1 (Oct)

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TIC TABLE 2 (Oct)

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TIC TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Industrial Production MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -0.6%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 1.5%

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Industrial Production YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.5%
Prior -4.5%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Nov)

Survey 75.6%
Actual 75.4%
Prior 76.4%
Revised 76.0%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Nov)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Nov)


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2008-11-17 USER

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Nov)

Survey -26.00
Actual -25.43
Prior -24.62
Revised n/a

 
Remains depressed.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Nov)

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Industrial Production MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 1.3%
Prior -2.8%
Revised -3.7%

 
Routine bounce back of a volatile series.

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Industrial Production YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1%
Prior -5.7%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Oct)

Survey 76.5%
Actual 76.4%
Prior 76.4%
Revised 75.5%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Oct)


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2008-10-15 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.1%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 313.50
Prior 314.50
Revised n/a

 
Down a tad, but the lower band of the range holding.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 1514.20
Prior 1345.80
Revised n/a

 
Refi machine seems to be functioning.

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 10)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)

Survey -10.0
Actual -24.6
Prior -7.4
Revised n/a

 
Much lower than expected as the world economy slows.

Karim says:

  • Drops from -7.4 to record low of -24.6.

  • Orders drop 25 points, shipments drop 9 points, workweek drops 4 points.

  • Employment modest improvement from -4.6 to -3.7

  • Bulk of labor force adjustment seems to be in hours.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

Karim says:

  • Headline -0.4% and core +0.4%

  • Intermediate stage -1.2% and core -0.3%

  • Crude stage -7.9% and core -9.4%

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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Producer Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey 8.6%
Actual 8.7%
Prior 9.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still up big year over year.

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Sep)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
This is breaking out as well.

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.2%
Prior -0.3%
Revised -0.4%

 
Lowe than expected partly due to lower gasoline prices.

Karim says:

  • -1.2% m/m and -0.6% m/m ex-autos; modest downward revisions to back months.

  • -1.3% ex-gas.

  • All you need to know is only 2 components to rise m/m were health care and gasoline!

  • Furniture and clothing were each down 2.3%; the drop in furniture the most since Feb 2003.

  • And this before the 15% month to date decline in equities in October.

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

 
Looking like recession levels.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.9%

 
Also, lower than expected.

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Business Inventories MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

 
A little lower than expected.

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Business Inventories YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.4%
Prior 6.5%
Revised n/a

 
Working their way higher but not out of control.


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2008-09-15 USER

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Sep)

Survey 1.0
Actual -7.4
Prior 2.8
Revised n/a

 
Down and worse than expected but still off the lows.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Sep)

 
Employees and new orders up, while prices paid and received numbers moderated.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Sep)

 
Capex and Tech spending up.

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Industrial Production MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -1.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
A lot worse than expected and prior month revised down.

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Industrial Production YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.5%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

 
Not looking good. Ex autos still down .6 month over month.


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