Tag Archives: Case-Shiller

Conference Board/C-S

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Karim writes:

Conference Board survey weaker than expected

  • Falls back from 54.5 to 53.1 with both current conditions and future expex declining
  • Labor differential (Jobs plentiful less Jobs hard to get) falls from -40 to -43.6, near lows for year
  • Cash for clunkers runs its course as plans to buy an auto in next 6mths falls from 5.3 to 4.4, lowest since March
  • Plans to buy a home in next 6mths falls from 3.0 to 2.3

Case-Shiller rises 1.6% in July, 3rd monthly advance in a row.

  • Of note is the 3mth period through July 2008 were the best 3mths for home prices last year, so seasonals may be suspect
  • Also, foreclosures about to ramp up again, creating additional supply-link below has some good data/charts

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2008-12-30 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Sinking.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Falling back, even with low fuel prices.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still way down.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still negative.

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (-)

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still heading south as foreclosures continue to take their toll.

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (-)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (-)

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Actual –
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Revised –

 
Remains very low.

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Consumer Confidence (-)

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Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Not much to be confident about.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (-)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (-)


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2008-09-30 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.10%
Prior 1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.20%
Prior -1.00%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.00%
Prior 1.20%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.20%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 30)

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jul)

Survey -16.00%
Actual -16.35%
Prior -15.92%
Revised -15.91%

 
Down year over year, but the rate of decline has slowed.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)

Survey 166.90
Actual 166.23
Prior 167.69
Revised 167.71

 
Decelerating rate of decline.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.88%
Prior -0.52%
Revised n/a

 
From this angle it looks like the declines have moderated and could soon be over as inventories shrink and incomes continue higher.

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Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Sep)

Survey 53.0
Actual 56.7
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and remaining above 50. Employment moved up to 49.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Sep)

 
Employment gapped up to 49?

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Sep)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 46.0
Prior 43.0
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and working its way out of the hole.

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Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Survey 55.0
Actual 59.8
Prior 56.9
Revised 58.5

 
Even this is moving up some though from very low levels, and as of September 23.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Sep)


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Data Review

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thanks, a few quips below:

Karim writes:

  • Conference Board survey falls from 62.8 to 57.2 (lowest since 1992)

  • Both present situation and expectations decline

Labor conditions, plans to buy home and plans to buy auto all fall to new cycle lows

Tough living in an export economy.

  • 1yr inflation expectations jump from 6.8 to 7.7

Inflation rips as non-residents outbid us for your output, as all our funds are spent on food and fuel.

  • Case Shiller Home price index accelerates rate of decline, down 6.7% q/q and 14.1% y/y

Narrow index of 20 metro regions, with 4 or 5 biggest spec boom/bust regions doing most of the damage.

  • New home sales rise 3.3% in April; mths inventories fall from 11.1 to 10.6

Coming back from unsustainably low levels give the US population and income growth.

Actual homes in inventory fell to the lowest levels since July.

  • Jan-March sales data revised lower by cumulative 5.5%

Tough first quarter with record low consumer sediment :) behind us.

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2008-03-25 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-25 S&P-CS Home Price Index

S&P-CS Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7
Prior 184.9
Revised 185.0

2008-03-25 S&P-CS Composite 20 YoY

S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (Jan)

Survey -10.5%
Actual -10.7%
Prior -9.1%
Revised -9.0%

Still falling.  January/Winter numbers.  Lagging indicators.

Just kicked in in March.

2008-03-25 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Survey 73.5
Actual 64.5
Prior 75.0
Revised 76.4

Down sharply, a lagging indicator, and subject to sharp reversals.

2008-03-25 House Price Index MoM

House Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.6%

Was still heading south in January.

2008-03-25 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

Survey -5
Actual 6
Prior -5
Revised n/a

Quite a few March numbers are looking up.

2008-03-25 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -31
Prior -31
Revised n/a

Another March number that shows some signs of life after a rough winter.

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2007-12-26 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-26 S&P-Case Shiller Home Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 192.9
Prior 195.6
Revised 195.7

2007-12-26 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Oct)

Survey -5.7%
Actual -6.1%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

2007-12-26 S&P-Case-Shiller 20 MoM%

S&P/CS 20 MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.42%
Prior -0.84%
Revised n/a
% Change -69.05%

2007-12-26 Home Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller TABLE

Survey 1
Actual -4
Prior 0
Revised n/a

It’s a big city index and has been down more than broader measures. Biggest drops have come in Miami, Las Vegas, Detroit, and Los Angeles. Also, these are October numbers – old news now.

2007-12-26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey 1
Actual -4
Prior 0
Revised n/a

2007-12-26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing TABLE

Redmond Manufacturing TABLE

Some weakness and higher prices.

2007-12-26 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -23
Prior -17
Revised

This was when CNBC was still gloomy. Now that CNBC has turned a bit more optimistic, maybe the number will turn up as well.

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