Tag Archives: ABC Consumer Confidence

2008-06-10 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-10 US Trade Balance

Trade Balance (April)

Survey -$60.0B
Actual -$60.9B
Prior -$58.2B
Revised -$56.5B

A bit of a backup due to petroleum prices but gradually getting smaller as CB’s and Monetary authorities have cut back their rate of accumulation of $US financial assets.

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2008-06-10 Trade Balance Ex Petrol

Trade Balance Ex Petrol (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.411B
Prior -$26.284B
Revised n/a

This has been quickly reversing and offsetting the higher prices paid for crude oil imports.

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2008-06-10 Trade Balance ALLX

Trade Balance ALLX (Apr)

Lots of interesting data here, as, in general, exports continue to increase at emerging market type rates.

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2008-06-10 IBD TIPP Consumer Confidence TABLE

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jun)

Survey 40.0
Actual 37.4
Prior 40.3
Revised n/a

Inflation taking a bite into optimism.

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2008-06-11 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (June 8)

Survey -47
Actual -45
Prior -45
Revised n/a

A little better but still low due to weak equities and high inflation.


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2008-06-03 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (May)

Survey 14.6M
Actual 14.3M
Prior 14.4M
Revised n/a

Very weak, as was transportation in general, but more than made up for by other factory orders, see below.

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2008-06-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (May)

Survey 10.8M
Actual 10.5M
Prior 10.6M
Revised n/a

As above, very weak.

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2008-06-03 Factory Orders YoY

Factory Orders YoY (Apr)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.4%
Revised 1.5%

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2008-06-04 Factory Orders Ex Transportation

Factory Orders Ex Transportation

Survey n/a
Actual 389154
Prior 378303
Revised n/a

Upside surprise, and non-transportation up very strong.

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2008-06-03 Factory Orders MoM

Factory Orders MoM (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 1.5%

More upside surprises.
No recession, and this was before the fiscal package kicked in.

With domestic demand not this strong, could be even larger increases in exports as foreigners continue to spend their now unwanted hoard of USD over here.

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2008-06-03 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 1)

Survey -51
Actual -45
Prior -51
Revised n/a

Even this indicator had an upside surprise.

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2008-05-27 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-27 S&P-CaseShiller Home Price Index

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 172.2
Prior 175.9
Revised 176.0

Still moving lower. The sample is the 20 largest metro areas which were the regions hit hardest by the speculative bulge.

Broader measures don’t show this kind of depreciation.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Mar)

Survey -14.2%
Actual -14.4%
Prior -12.7%
Revised n/a

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS US HPI

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 159.2
Prior 170.6
Revised 170.6

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS US HPI YoY%

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY% (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.1%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Apr)

Survey 520K
Actual 526K
Prior 526K
Revised 509K

April up and higher than expected, March revised down some.

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2008-05-27 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey -1.1%
Actual 3.3%
Prior -8.5%
Revised -11.0%

As above.
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2008-05-27 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (May)

Survey 60.0
Actual 57.2
Prior 62.3
Revised 62.8

This is what an export economy looks like.

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2008-05-27 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

Survey 1
Actual -3
Prior 0
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-05-27 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (May 25)

Survey -49
Actual -51
Prior -49
Revised n/a

As above. Consumers are getting squeezed by inflation, while exports boom.

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2008-05-20 US Economic Releases

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Whether the ‘definitions’ call the food and energy price hikes ‘inflation’ or not, they are still problematic.

There are two choices for government: try to sustain aggregate demand or try to reduce aggregate demand.

Currently, the policy is to say ‘inflation’ is not a problem and try to sustain aggregate demand, as evidenced by the tax rebates and Fed rate cuts.
(NOTE: I don’t think rate cuts add to demand, but the Fed does.)

And as oil climbs in price, markets discount lower rates from the Fed (markets also think lower rates add to demand).

And, for another fiscal example, Obama speaks of tax cuts for the middle class so people can pay for their food and energy. Adding to demand like that will drive prices up further.

Supply responses aren’t particularly price sensitive in the short run; so, crude could go up a lot more before something like pluggable hybrids in sufficient quantities cut demand for gasoline by the 5-10 million bpd necessary to break the rise in crude prices.

And by that time the pass throughs to the rest of the economy (yes, including housing and wages) will be well entrenched.

The other choice for government is to cut aggregate demand. This means tax hikes or spending cuts, and a deep, ugly recession to hopefully cut demand for gasoline that way. Looks even more painful and less promising, if that’s possible.

I have suggested cutting demand for gasoline with a ‘non-price’ policy of setting the national speed limit at 30 mph for private transportation. This is a conceptual extension of policies mandating mpg, etc. It will cut gasoline demand by perhaps 5 million bpd and if adopted world wide more than that, but has yet to even enter the national debate.

So it will be a debate between adding to aggregate demand and cutting aggregate demand – like choosing whether you want to get shot with a revolver or an automatic.

The days are numbered for current bias to add to demand – the limits of ‘inflation’ tolerance aren’t far away. We are only now probably seeing the pass through from $60 crude. There is much more to come, and for several years. And in hindsight, the current policy of adding to demand will at best be considered an error of judgment.


2008-05-20 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-20 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-20 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey 6.7%
Actual 6.5%
Prior 6.9%
Revised n/a

This all either gets passed through to all other prices (inflation) or real terms of trade deteriorate further – both unpleasant at best.

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2008-05-20 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 3.0%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

The pass through has started and has long way to go just based on current energy prices.

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IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (May)

Survey 37.8
Actual 40.3
Prior 39.2
Revised –

Add one more to the ‘better than expected’ list.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (May 18)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior 2.9%
Revised –

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2008-05-13 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-13 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.8%
Revised 2.9%

Alarming to the Fed.

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2008-05-13 Import Price Index YoY

Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey 15.0%
Actual 15.4%
Prior 14.8%
Revised 14.9%

Alarming to the Fed.

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2008-05-13 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Apr)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

As expected, but composition surprised on the upside.

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2008-05-13 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.4%

Way better than expected, and prior revised higher as well.  Consumer alive and well.

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2008-05-13 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.5%

Another pleasant surprise that means Q1 GDP gets revised up a bit more.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (May 11)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -46
Revised –

[comments]


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2008-04-29 US Economic Releases

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2008-04-29 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Feb)

Survey -12.0%
Actual -12.7%
Prior -10.7%
Revised n/a

Was still heading down in February.

2008-04-29 S&P-CS Home Price Index

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 175.9
Prior 180.7
Revised 180.8

Same.

2008-04-29 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Apr)

Survey 61.0
Actual 62.3
Prior 64.5
Revised 65.9

Surveys show most everyone believes we are in recession, even though we aren’t
that’s how export economies feel.

2008-04-29 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Apr 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -41
Prior -40
Revised n/a

Same.


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2008-04-22 US Economic Releases

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  • Existing Home Sales
  • House Price Index
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
  • ABC Consumer Confidence

2008-04-22 Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 4.92M
Actual 4.93M
Prior 5.03M
Revised n/a

2008-04-22 Existing Home Sales MoM

Existing Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -2.3%
Actual -2.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

Better than expected.
Might really be a bottom forming.

2008-04-22 House Price Index MoM

House Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.0%

Up? Who would have thought?

2008-04-22 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Survey -1
Actual 0
Prior 6
Revised n/a

2008-04-22 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index TABLE

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index TABLE

Yes, another number better than expected and not looking so bad?

Fiscal package kicking in soon as well.

Prices firm through the slowdown, wonder what they might do if the economy stabilizes?

2008-04-22 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Apr 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -40
Prior -39
Revised n/a

Still constant negative news on TV.

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2008-04-15 US Economic Releases

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  • Producer Price Index
  • Empire Manufacturing
  • NAHB Housing Market Index
  • ABC Consumer Confidence

2008-04-15 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

2008-04-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

2008-04-15 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey 6.2%
Actual 6.9%
Prior 6.4%
Revised n/a

2008-04-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.8%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

2008-04-15 Producer Price Index TABLE

Producer Price Index TABLE

Inflation ripping.

From Karim:

Headline/Core divergence continues

  • Headline up 1.1% m/m and 6.9% y/y

  • Core up 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y

  • Food (+1.2%) and gas (+1.3%) lead the way up, computers (-3.2%) and passenger cars (-0.2%) lead the way down.

  • Intermediate and crude pressures remain intense, rising 2.3% and 8.0% respectively for the month

  • Further margin squeeze likely to put further downward pressure on capex, especially in light of weak economy and credit conditions (see below)

Empire jumps from -22.2 to 0.6. Index quite volatile and 10-20 point moves per month the norm as of late.

6mth expectations deteriorate from 25.8 to 19.6.

  • Shipments show largest jump from -5 to +17 (for current conditions)

  • Employment and average workweek both extremely weak

  • Capex intentions fall from 18 to 11.5

2008-04-15 Empire Manufacturing

Empire Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey -17.0
Actual 0.6
Prior -22.2
Revised n/a

Survey is colored by subjective recessions fears bouncing back some.

2008-04-15 NAHB Housing Market Index

NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr)

Survey 20
Actual 20
Prior 20
Revised n/a

Still looks to me like a bottom.

2008-04-15 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Apr 13)

Survey n/a
Actual -39
Prior -34
Revised n/a

Still looking weak. Much like an export economy

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2008-04-08 US Economic Releases

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COMMENTS TO COME!!

2008-04-08 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.9%
Prior 0.0%
Revised 0.3%

2008-04-08 Pending Home Sales Total SA

Pending Home Sales Total SA

Survey n/a
Actual 84.6
Prior 86.2
Revised n/a

Last month revised to actually being up a tad, but back down this month.

Not going anywhere as of February, but still a winter number.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Apr)

Survey 41.5
Actual 39.2
Prior 42.5
Revised n/a

2008-04-08 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Apr 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -34
Prior -33
Revised n/a

Still looking to me as turning to the upside. A stable stock market should help a lot.

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