Vehicle sales, Construction spending, GDP comments, Comments on tax cuts, Comments on fed policy
Uncategorized
Feb 02, 2018
Even lower than expected as weakness continues: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 17.1 million annual rate in January By Bill McBride Feb 1, (calculated Risk) — Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 17.1 million SAAR in January. That is down 1.2% from January 2017,
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ADP employment forecast, Pending home sales, Income and spending
Economic Releases
Jan 31, 2018
This is now a forecast for Friday’s payroll number, and note from the chart that it’s been diverging all year. Seems there’s some kind of error in their forecasting methodology? Highlights ADP sees a very strong employment report coming out on Friday, estimating a 234,000 rise in private payrolls. ADP has been
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Spending and savings, Apartment market tightness, Vehicle sales
Economic Releases
Jan 30, 2018
Seems to me this divergence has been stretched to the limit: And this chart from Daniele Della Bona shows how dipping into savings via borrowing adds to interest expense that further reduces savings when other personal income is lagging: And this shows the gap: And from a different angle: And this was
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Personal income and outlays, GDP, PMI’s, Philly Fed index, Bank loans, Rail traffic
Economic Releases
Jan 29, 2018
Pretty much in line with expectations, but last month’s spending increase means what I think was an unsustainably low savings rate is now even lower. Highlights Personal income rose 0.4 percent in December with wages and salaries up a solid 0.5 percent. Spending also rose 0.4 percent in December with November revised
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New home sales
Economic Releases
Jan 25, 2018
Much lower than expected, and last month’s number, which was touted as the turning point for housing, was revised lower as well. And note from the chart we’re still below the levels of the 1970’s when the population was about 40% lower: Highlights The headline 9.3 percent decline in new home sales
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Existing home sales, PMI services, Coal mining jobs
Economic Releases
Jan 24, 2018
Less than expected and last month’s number revised a bit lower, so still no contribution to growth for the year: Highlights Lack of supply pulled down existing home sales in December and may very well pull down sales in January as well. Existing home sales fell 3.6 percent in December to an
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Housing starts, Apple repatriation
Economic Releases
Jan 18, 2018
Starts were quite a bit lower than expected while permits held steady: From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000. This is 8.2 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,299,000 and is 6.0 percent below
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Housing index, Industrial production, Redbook same store sales, Healthcare comments
Economic Releases
Jan 17, 2018
Up more than expected this month, but last month revised down, inline with a recent pattern of reporting a better than expected number that subsequently gets revised down to where it no longer looks so good: The year end blip up, funded by out sized credit card advances, may have reversed: Highlights
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Bank lending review, $US, Dementia signs
Economic Releases
Jan 16, 2018
I’m using monthly totals this week to take some of the ‘noise’ out of the weekly numbers surrounding year end: Pretty clear here there’s been almost no loan growth over the last year or so: The growth rate of real estate lending also shifted around election time: Consumer credit, however, expanded into
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Retail sales, $US
Economic Releases
Jan 12, 2018
Highlights It was a very good holiday shopping season but perhaps not a great one. Retail sales rose a solid 0.4 percent in December which is just shy of Econoday’s consensus though November is revised 1 tenth higher to what is a standout gain of 0.9 percent. Core readings show similar strength
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