Category Archives: Economic Releases

ADP, mtg purch apps, Productivity, ISM, oil and gas well permits

Remember, this is their forecast for Friday, not hard data from their subscribers: ADP Employment Report Highlights ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth for November is 208,000 vs the Econoday consensus for 225,000 and against a revised 233,000 for October. … Continue reading

Posted in Comodities, Economic Releases, Employment, GDP, Oil |

Car sales up

Good news here: Motor Vehicle Sales Highlights Vehicle sales rose a strong 4.2 percent in November to a 17.2 million unit annual rate which is outside the top end of the Econoday consensus for 17.0 million. Sales of North American-made … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases |

more seriously worrisome releases today

Chicago PMI New Home Sales Pending Home Sales Index Personal Income and Outlays Jobless Claims Durable Goods Orders Highlights The headline number for durables looked good for October but the core number notably disappointed. Durables orders rebounded 0.4 percent in … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, Employment, GDP |

The week so far

First, thanks to all for contributing to the record $41 million raised this year for Dana Farber by the PMC!!! This all directly funds the discretionary research that makes Dana Farber what they are- the best! If you are looking … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, GDP, Housing |

Store sales, Trade

A lesser indicator but might be indicative at the moment: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Redbook Highlights Both ICSC-Goldman and Redbook report slowing in the November 1 store-sales week with Redbook’s year-on-year same-store rate down 5 tenths to plus 3.9 percent. Redbook … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, Trade |

Retail sales, credit expansion review, Empire manufacturing

Still looking like a macro constraint/fading aggregate demand. Strong auto sales, for example, coincides with less of something else: And this is the so called retail sales ‘control group’ that excludes food, gas, building materials and autos: This market for … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, Economic Releases |

Public sector payroll jobs

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Posted in Economic Releases, Employment |

Charts on recent releases

(not saying that any of this is in the Fed’s reaction function- that’s another story) See the ‘down, up some, then leveling off of the red line? Still growing but ‘leveled off’ at a bit less than 1.8%. Employment/population ratio … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases |

Review of last weeks data

So my narrative is: The Federal budget deficit is too small to support growth given the current ‘credit environment’- maybe $400b less net spending in 2014. The automatic fiscal stabilizers are ‘aggressive’, as they materially and continually reduce the deficit … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Economic Releases, Employment, GDP, Government Spending, Housing |

Charts from the last few days

Total vehicle sales year over year showed some post winter bounce. The narrative was that March started off slow but picked up due to large incentives for the last week. We’ll see if it all holds up for April. Full … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, Employment, GDP |