Deficit Archive

Construction, gasoline prices, manufacturing, state and local contribution to gdp, restaurant performance index, saudi output, sun spots

Headlines sound a lot better than the charts look. Absolute levels and growth rates continue to fall short of prior cycles: Construction Spending Highlights Construction outlays saw a broad-based gain in July. Construction spending rebounded 1.8 percent after a 0.9 percent dip in June. While all broad categories advanced, July’s increase was ...Read More

Real Fiscal Responsibility Today Radio and TV Show pilots

The Real Fiscal Responsibility Talk Show Pilot Project This project is for everyone tired of hearing economic commentary from those who got everything wrong. For decades the the doctrine of “Fiscal Responsibility” interpreted as long-term deficit reduction and Government austerity has had a secure place in American politics. The three of us ...Read More

taking away the punch bowl

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A few charts/comments below. More after the first revision to Q2 come out. Looks to me like the macro constraint narrative is still intact. Just a word here about state and local govt spending adding to GDP. Yes, there was an increase in spending. But tax receipts also went up, which subtracts ...Read More

Consumer debt ratios

Circled are the credit expansion from the ‘regrettable’ S and L expansion (over $1 trillion back when that was a lot of money), the ‘regrettable’ .com/Y2K credit expansion (private sector debt expanding at 7% of GDP funding ‘impossible’ business plans), and most recently the ‘regrettable’ credit expansion phase of the sub prime ...Read More

Federal government tax receipts

Federal government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes Full size image Federal government current receipts: Contributions for government social insurance Full size image The automatic fiscal stabilizers got some help from the FICA hike to cut net govt spending and throw a wet blanket over growth and maybe take a year or ...Read More

IMF’s Lagarde hints at world growth forecast cut – Reuters

And remains ‘part of the problem’ vs ‘part of the solution’ Reuters noted comments from IMF chief Christine Lagarde, who said that global economic activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and accelerate through 2015, although momentum could be weaker than expected. She said that central banks’ accommodative policies ...Read More

Warsaw conference

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State personal income tax receipts

looks like late cycle action? Full size image ...Read More

Size of income tax drop surprises U.S. states

This could be technical or a sign of trouble for the macro economy: Size of income tax drop surprises U.S. states June 12 (Reuters) — Personal income tax revenues in April were 15.8 percent, or $7.9 billion, below the same month in 2013, according to preliminary estimates from Rockefeller, a public policy ...Read More