Author Archive

Personal income and spending, Pending home sales

Personal income growth remains weal as per the charts, which also showed a sharp drop in the personal savings rate, which generally forecasts reductions in spending: Highlights Vital signs for the consumer are strong but inflation is completely lifeless, based on a mixed personal income & outlays report for July. Income is ...Read More

Mtg applications, GDP, Personal savings, Corporate profits, ADP employment, Federal tax reciepts

Purchase applications were down again, as housing weakness reflects the drop in the growth of mortgage credit: Highlights Low mortgage rates are failing to entice home buyers, whose activity declined for the third straight week according to the Mortgage Bankers’ Association. Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent ...Read More

Trade, SUV’s, Redbook retail sales, Trump and Harvey

No ‘improvement’ here: Highlights Third-quarter GDP is off to a slow start, at least for international trade in goods where the July trade gap widened more than $1 billion to $65.1 billion. Exports fell 1.3 percent and were pulled down by a sharp fall in vehicles and also consumer goods which are ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Vehicle sales, Credit check

Nothing impressing me here, as per the chart: Highlights Durable goods orders came in as billed with a steep aircraft-related decline for the headline, at minus 6.8 percent, contrasting with solid gains for ex-transportation at 0.5 percent and core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) at 0.4 percent. A special plus in the report, ...Read More

Tax proposals, New home sales, PMI surveys, Architecture Billings Index

Seems to me the highlighted proposals will reduce spending more than the cut in tax rates will increase spending: Trump’s team and lawmakers making strides on tax reform plan Aug 22 (Politico) — President Trump’s top aides and congressional leaders have made significant strides in shaping a tax overhaul. There is broad ...Read More

House prices, Redbook retail sales, NY Fed survey

Home prices may be softening, but too soon to tell: Highlights The FHFA house price index came in at a very soft 0.1 percent increase in June, well short of Econoday’s consensus for 0.5 percent and low estimate of 0.3 percent. This is both good news and bad news, as slowing price ...Read More

Credit check, Rig count, Consumer sentiment, Romney comment, Pollak comment

More of same: More evidence this has stabilized and maybe reversed: Expectations up, current conditions down: Highlights Consumer sentiment unexpectedly burst higher in the August flash but the results, warns the report, do not fully reflect the impact of the weekend’s violence in Virginia. The index rose to 97.6 which is well ...Read More

Industrial production, Trump comments

Worse than expected, but modest growth from depressed levels. Highlights The Federal Reserve inadvertently released what is a weak July industrial production report about a 1/2 hour early this morning. Headline production rose 0.2 percent vs expectations for 0.3 percent with manufacturing output showing outright contraction, at minus 0.1 percent vs Econoday’s ...Read More

Housing starts, Alt right study

Lower than expected, and, as always starts are ultimately determined by permits, which have been slowing as per the chart, which also reflects the deceleration in mortgage lending over the last 6 months: Highlights Housing starts couldn’t hold the 1.200 million annualized line in July, falling to a lower-than-expected 1.155 million. The ...Read More

Retail sales, Import and export prices, Business inventories, Housing index

The chart still looks weak to me. Shale boom in 2014 pumped it up, and then reversing with the shale bust, and still looking suspect after January when consumer credit further decelerated: Highlights The consumer was back in the stores last month in a July retail sales report, headlined by a 0.6 ...Read More