Author Archive

Personal income and spending, Gross Domestic Income, Bank lending

Everything pretty much as expected, more comments via the charts: Highlights Inflation data are inching higher while softness in spending is offset by strength in wages. The core PCE price index managed only an as-expected 0.2 percent gain in February though the year-on-year rate moved a notch higher to 1.6 percent, which ...Read More

Pending home sales, Trade, Profits

The second article reveals the year over year situation, which takes out seasonal factors: Highlights Existing home sales have been struggling to move higher but today’s pending home sales index will raise expectations for improvement. Pending home sales rose a sharp 3.1 percent in data for February though they follow an even ...Read More

Oil prices, Euro lending, Euro comment

Saudis could be targeting a euro price rather than a $US price? It’s their call! With capped national deficits the economy needs growing private sector deficit spending or a growing current account surplus to satisfy growing savings desires: Low inflation = weak currency??? :( ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Industrial Production revisions, Tariff comments

Still looking very weak: From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Forecast: Sales Down Slightly; Inventory Declines to Match Demand A Wards Intelligence forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.60 million light vehicles in March. … The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 16.9 million units, higher ...Read More

Current account, Existing home sales

Q4 worse than expected and prior quarter revised lower, which means downward GDP revisions: Highlights The current-account deficit increased to a roughly as-expected $128.2 billion in the fourth quarter vs the third quarter’s slightly revised $101.5 billion deficit which benefited from $24.9 billion in hurricane-related insurance payments. As a percentage of GDP, ...Read More

Housing starts, Industrial production

As previously discussed, the spike in multi family reported in Jan has reversed in Feb: Highlights Home sales turned lower in January as did housing starts and permits in February, and noticeably so. Housing starts fell 7.0 percent in the month to a much lower-than-expected annualized rate of 1.236 million while building ...Read More

Inventory to sales ratio, New economic adviser, Tax refunds

Still elevated: Didn’t take him long to sell out: Federal tax refunds have caught up which may have slowed spending in Feb: ...Read More

Retail Sales, Fed Atlanta

Worse than expected and now down for the last three months, not adjusted for inflation. And all in line with the narrative about personal income going flat and the falling savings rate: Highlights The big tax cut isn’t being passed to the nation’s retailers. Retail sales once again missed expectations badly, at ...Read More

Real earnings, Saudi output and pricing

Real Earnings News Release All employees Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings offset by a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All ...Read More

Bank loans, Cell phone sales

Actually dropped a bit last week: ...Read More