Daily Archives: September 19, 2013 @ 4:02 pm (Thursday)

Realtors negative on home sales

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Home sales ‘last hurrah’ for next 12 months

By Diana Olick

September 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. home sales in August rose to their highest level in six years, even higher than during the recent home buyer tax credit. This news came on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would continue to fuel the mortgage market, keeping rates from rising dramatically. Still, Realtors were uncharacteristically pessimistic in their predictions for sales this fall.

“We are getting early signals from lock boxes that show a significant change in direction in August,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, referring to the small key boxes that hang on the doors of for-sale homes. The number of times they were opened in August dropped dramatically, signaling a big drop in potential buyer traffic.

Yun claimed the jump in August sales was based on fear of rising rates. August numbers are based on closings for contracts that were likely signed in June. June saw the biggest spike in mortgage interest rates.

“That hurried people into making a decision,” said Yun. “It was the last hurrah for the next 12 to 18 months.”

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Debt ceiling

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Remember, unlike just a tax hike or spending cut, hitting the debt ceiling means going cold turkey to a balanced budget, which is catastrophic as it eliminates the automatic stabilizers and triggers a downward spiral that, if left to continue, could take maybe 25% off of GDP in 90 days, and still be accelerating downward.

Boehner: We’ll win the fight to defund Obamacare

September 19 (Reuters) — U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said he was confident that majority Republicans in the chamber would pass a stop-gap U.S. funding measure on Friday that denies money for “Obamacare” health insurance reforms.

At a news conference on Thursday, Boehner also said Republicans had “no interest” in defaulting on U.S. debt in the looming debate over raising the U.S. debt limit.

“We will deliver a big victory in the House tomorrow, and then this fight will move over to the Senate where it belongs. I expect my Senate colleagues to be up for the battle,” Boehner said.

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Japan Exports Rise Most Since ’10 in Boost for Abe Effort – Bloomberg

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Not helping US domestic demand…

Japan Export Gains Offer Growth Momentum as Sales-Tax Rise Looms

By Andy Sharp & Toru Fujioka

September 19 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s exports rose the most since 2010 in August, boosting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s growth drive even as rising energy costs extended the streak of trade deficits to the longest since 1980.

Exports rose 14.7 percent from a year earlier, the sixth straight advance, a Finance Ministry report showed in Tokyo, in line with the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The trade gap was 960.3 billion yen ($9.8 billion).

A surge in exports to the U.S., along with a rebound in shipments to China in the wake of bilateral tensions last year, are offering momentum to Japan as it prepares for the first sales-tax increase since 1997. Rising competitiveness from the yen’s 20 percent drop against the dollar the past year also has helped manufacturers including Panasonic Corp. (6752) as they cope with higher energy costs with the nation’s nuclear industry shuttered.

“We are finally seeing a clear recovery in exports, led by a weak yen and a moderate global recovery,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute Co. in Tokyo. “My biggest concern is the planned sales-tax increase next year. A recovery in exports will help cushion the impact but a higher levy could still be a big drag on the economy, while risks remain in Europe and emerging markets.”

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