UK remains hopelessly out of paradigm

U.K. Labour to Strip Benefits From Unemployed If Job Refused

By Kitty Donaldson

January 4 (Bloomberg) — The U.K.’s opposition Labour Party called for a compulsory jobs guarantee for the long-term unemployed, making state welfare payments dependent on paid employment.

The party’s treasury spokesman, Ed Balls, said the guarantee would initially be for adults who are out of work for 24 months or more, though Labour would seek to reduce this to 18 or 12 months over time. The party said there are currently 129,400 adults over the age of 25 who have been out of work for two years or more, a rise of 88 percent in a year.

To pay for the jobs guarantee, which Balls estimates would cost 1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion), he would restrict tax relief on pension contributions for people earning more than 150,000 pounds a year.

“A One Nation approach to welfare reform means government has a responsibility to help people into work and support those who cannot, but those who can work must be required to take up jobs or lose benefits as a result — no ifs or buts,” Balls wrote in an article for the Politics Home website today. “Britain needs real welfare reform that is tough, fair and that works, not divisive, nasty and misleading smears from an out-of- touch and failing government.”

‘Squeezed Middle’

Labour and Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives are battling to attract what the premier calls the “strivers” and opposition leader Ed Miliband the “squeezed middle” of voters whose wages aren’t rising in line with inflation and who are suffering from cuts in public services.

An overhaul of the welfare system is at the heart of the debate, with the Tories seeking to portray themselves as defenders of hard-working families by cutting the welfare bill, and Labour saying it is protecting the most vulnerable in society. Today’s announcement by Balls seeks to show Labour will also be tough on the long-term unemployed.

The Conservative Party said Balls had already pledged in March last year to spend the 1 billion pounds from pension tax relief to increase tax credits for low-paid workers and families with children.

“We are taking firm action to help the long-term unemployed Labour left behind get back into work,” Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps said in an e-mailed statement. “Ed Balls is trying to spend the same money twice. That means more borrowing and more debt — exactly how Labour got us into this mess in the first place.”

Payroll Recap


Karim writes:

Overall trend improvement continues in payrolls, with the 155k gain (with +14k in net revisions) in line with the average gain over the past 6mths. The Unemployment rate rose from 7.753% to 7.849% as the household survey gained only 28k jobs while the labor force grew by 192k.

Other Notable Positives

  • Diffusion index rises from 56.6 to 63.2
  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% for second straight month
  • Index of aggregate hours +0.4% for second straight month (major plus for personal income)
  • Median duration of unemployment fell from 18.9 weeks to 18.0

post cliff notes

So the main thing that happened was my payroll tax holiday expired (I read that this was the only bipartisan bill passed into law in the last 4 years), which will reduce the average family’s take home pay (both working) by over $200/month.

That’s a lot, and its highly regressive. And about as high multiple as you can get, with a lot of that income is leveraged into car payments
and mtgs. and other debt service.

It all brings us back to very modest GDP growth, maybe a bit of (population adjusted) employment growth, and a bit of top line revenue growth for corporations.

Ok for stocks, not so ok for people trying to work for a living.

And more deficit reduction to come.

Growth Impact from Yesterday’s Deal


Karim writes:

The straight Keynsian impact (i.e., assume multiplier of 1) of the measures announced yesterday work out to a 1.25% drag on GDP, mostly felt in the first few months of the year. This reflects the payroll tax rise (about 0.7%), the rise in taxes and tighter rules on deductions for higher incomes (about 0.4%) and Obamacare fees (about .05%).

What remains unknown and could remain a drag just based on uncertainty effects are the 2mth delay in deciding on sequestration cuts (which may or may not happen), and obviously the debt ceiling. Both of these deadlines are likely to occur within 2weeks of each other in late Feb/early March.

Uncertainty has been removed in making lower and middle income tax rates permanent as well as the permanent patch for the AMT.

The current structure for unemployment benefits was extended by a year.