GOP Leaders Warn Bernanke About Further Fed Action

“The food was terrible and the portions were small”
Comment from the post war Catskill resorts

So now the Fed’s being warned about shooting more blanks:

GOP Leaders Warn Bernanke About Further Fed Action
Published: Tuesday, 20 Sep 2011 | 6:13 PM ET

 
Top Congressional Republicans Tuesday took the unusual step of telling the Federal Reserve to refrain from further “intervention” in the economy on the eve of a policy decision by the U.S. central bank.

 
The group, which included the top two Republicans in both houses of Congress, said the Fed’s policies have been ineffective at supporting economic expansion and boosting employment.

 
“It is not clear that the recent round of quantitative easing undertaken by the Federal Reserve has facilitated economic growth or reduced the unemployment rate,” the group said in a letter to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

 
The letter was signed by House Speaker John Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl.

 
With economic prospects fading dramatically after a damaging U.S. debt downgrade in August and an escalation of European financial turmoil, the Fedhas made clear it is intent on taking further steps to lift growth.

 
Although officials at the central bank differ on how best to address the economy’s woes, analysts expect Bernanke to muster a consensus behind a plan to rebalance the Fed’s portfolio to push down longer-term interest rates.

 
Officials hope that by weighting the central bank’s bond holdings more heavily toward longer-term debt they can spur mortgage refinancings and push investors into stocks or corporate bonds and away from safe-haven Treasurys.

 
The Fed is expected to announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. on Wednesday.

Posted in Fed

China Causing ‘Growing Frustrations’ With Curbs on Businesses, Locke Says

So how about all that talk that it’s ‘regulation’ that’s holding back the US economy?

The regulation and govt. ‘interference’ in China is far beyond anything imaginable in the US, yet their growth rates are far beyond
anything imaginable for the US, and they manage higher levels of employment with consumption at only about 35% of GDP.

So what’s the difference?

How about Chinese annual deficits running well over 20% of GDP (state lending is functionally very close to state deficit spending) in the normal course of business?

Much like the US did in WWII?

With similar growth rates?

Ok, so 25% might be a tad too high for the kind of price stability most in the US would prefer.

And so now China is fighting a 6% inflation rate.

Hardly ‘hyper inflation’

And certainly no reason for us not to go to the 12-14% annual deficits we probably need to sustain full employment, given current credit conditions.

In other words, for the size govt. we currently have, we remain grossly over taxed.

China’s Policies Fueling ‘Growing Frustrations,’ Locke Says

 
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Ambassador to China Gary Locke said the Asian country’s business climate is leading to “growing frustrations” among business and government leaders abroad, planting “seeds of doubt” in the minds of investors.

 
“There is a gap between the goals China identified in its five-year plan and the steps it is taking to achieve them,” Locke told U.S. business executives in Beijing. “Goals like expanding domestic consumption and fostering innovation require an acceleration and expansion of the economic reforms China has undertaken in the last few decades.”

 
Business groups including the Beijing-based American Chamber of Commerce in China, which hosted Locke today, are increasingly concerned that China aims to boost its companies through subsidies and anticompetitive rules at the expense of foreign companies. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said this month that discriminatory laws and regulations still impede its members in the world’s second-largest economy.

 
Locke said that foreign businesses face “substantial restrictions” in industries from “aviation to health care to financial services and several others.” To ease investor doubts, Locke said China should abolish restrictive practices like requiring “joint ventures in so many fields” and allowing both local and foreign companies to “make investment decisions without expansive government interference.”

 
Credit Cards

 
Access for financial firms was an area of concern, Locke said, singling out credit cards where he said China’s restrictions had created a domestic monopoly that failed to best serve consumers’ needs. State-owned banks were also skewed toward serving government-sector companies, he said.

 
“A more open and diverse Chinese financial system would help spur China’s economic reform efforts by helping finance the most dynamic firms in the economy and by putting more money in the pockets of the Chinese people through better savings options,” Locke said, according to a copy of the speech handed out to reporters before he spoke.

 
Foreign companies are shut out of industries such as mining, power generation and transportation altogether through China’s policy of selecting “national champions,” he said.

 
China’s policies deny its companies from receiving technology, management skills and jobs that more investment would bring, as well as “creating seeds of doubt in the minds of foreign investors as to whether they are truly welcome in China,” he said.

 
In a report in March, AmCham found 24 percent of respondents to an annual business climate survey said China’s economic reforms had done nothing to improve the environment for U.S. businesses in the country, up from 9 percent who said the same in a poll released last year.

 
No Equal Treatment

 
China’s government hasn’t lived up to Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledge last year that foreign companies would receive equal treatment, the EU chamber said in a report released Sept. 8.

 
Carmakers must take a Chinese partner and are limited to a 50 percent stake in their ventures, while telecommunication companies are effectively shut out from the world’s biggest mobile phone market, the report said. Foreign banks’ ownership of domestic financial firms is capped at 20 percent and overseas wind-turbine makers must tie up with local rivals on the grounds of “national security,” it said.

 
Locke said China’s reform process would be aided by letting its currency, known as the yuan or renminbi, appreciate.

 
Global Responsibility

 
“Allowing the renminbi to appreciate more rapidly would help reduce inflation, including the price of goods and services coming into China, allowing Chinese consumers to buy more with the income that they have,” he said.

 
Locke said China had a responsibility as the world’s second-biggest economy to help revive global growth, adding that reforms and greater market access were “critical to creating jobs in America.”

 
Wen this month said developed nations shouldn’t rely on China to bail out the world economy, and must cut deficits and free up their own markets. The U.S. should “ditch” protectionist measures and “open their arms” to Chinese investments, Xinhua News Agency said in a commentary today.

 
‘Houses in Order’

 
“Countries must first put their own houses in order,” Wen said Sept. 14 at the World Economic Forum in the Chinese city of Dalian. “Developed countries must take responsible fiscal and monetary policies.”

 
After serving as President Barack Obama’s commerce secretary, Locke was named as ambassador after Jon Huntsman resigned in April to run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

 
Locke, 61, a former governor of Washington from 1997 to 2005, also represented the state in Congress from 1982 to 1993. From 2005 to 2008, he was a partner at Davis Wright Tremaine LLP, a business and litigation law firm that represents clients in the U.S. and China.

 
The “single largest barrier” to improved U.S.-China cooperation is the “lack of openness in many areas of Chinese society — including many areas of the Chinese economy,” Locke said.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net

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Fed meeting again

Seems to me that though forecasts have been revised down, gdp growth continues to improve sequentially quarter to quarter for 2011,

q1 .5
q2 1.0
q3 1.5-2 forecast

And core cpi remains firm with the last 2.0 print.

Congress appears to accept the tax cutting elements of the jobs proposals, which would increase aggregate demand.

All this allows the fed to reflect sufficient (though cautious) optimism with regards to the economy,
giving reason to not make additional adjustments at this time, as many are anticipating.

And short and long rates are already low enough to be causing concern that they are brewing a future bubble of some sort.

Additionally, under their ‘expectations theory’,
that signal of optimism will give the economy more support than the proposed
‘monetary adjustments’ might have.

In fact, if they do make adjustments, they are concerned that will be taken as a no confidence vote from the Fed, and
could, in their minds, cause things to get worse.

furthermore, they are hesitant to make the speculated ‘final’ adjustments, and ‘use up their last bullets’ as they
are more than concerned they won’t have much effect, if any, and they want to at least keep the illusion that
there is more they can do.

But I’m only guessing at this point, and see the following outcomes:

Fed unchanged because the economy isn’t bad enough for an ease helps stocks and hurts bonds.

Fed does something shows the economy is bad enough to need help which hurts stocks and helps bonds.

And either outcome is quickly forgotten after initial market reactions.

Posted in Fed

Sweden Pledges to Keep Budget Balanced as Economy Slows

In case you thought Sweden knew how it worked:

Sweden Pledges to Keep Budget Balanced as Economy Slows

 
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) — Sweden pledged to keep budget
surpluses intact as Europe’s debt crisis and slowing U.S. growth
threaten to stifle the largest Nordic economy’s expansion.
Sweden’s budget will be in balance next year after a
surplus of 0.1 percent this year, Finance Minister Anders Borg
said today at a presentation of the 2012 budget in Stockholm.
The economy will grow 4.1 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in
2012, the same as estimated in August, he said.
“We now have the freedom to act and room to maneuver that
we need if the situation deteriorates,” Borg said. “If we end
up with a really serious downturn we should of course have some
kind of deficit but those deficits should not be so big that
they create uncertainty.”
Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said last week that his
minority government will ensure the budget steers clear of
deficits in case more stimulus is needed should the European
debt crisis deepen and global growth slows. The government last
month scrapped planned income tax cuts amid narrowing surpluses
and opposition from a majority of parliament.