quick update

Below are various commodity indices.
If China was in fact melting down in the second half of this year due to cut backs in state spending and lending, and that front loaded into the first quarter, it would look something like that before breaking further.


The Australian dollar is likewise falling, indicating shifting circumstances at China’s coal mine as well.

While good for the US consumer and US domestic demand, it’s not good for the earnings of quite a few
major corporations.

It’s also good for the dollar, which is also not good for corporate foreign earnings translations.

It also brings down headline inflation and could help moderate core CPI as well.

And if China doesn’t like US Fed style QE, ECB style QE- buying member nation debt- has to be all the more distasteful,
and could shift their reserve preference away from the euro.

Especially as the ECB check writing escalates much like it did when it supported the banking system’s liquidity. In theory the ECB’s check writing for the national govts could approach the size of the US budget deficit. Somewhat as ECB liquidity support for the euro member banks is analogous to FDIC insurance for the US banking system.

With the US budget deficit chugging along at about 9% of GDP, domestic demand and earnings should be no worse than they were in the first half of this year, as previously discussed, which means equities should be ok in general, though with some names benefiting as others get hurt.