Posted by WARREN MOSLER on October 31st, 2010
Getting really bad feelings for the next week or so:
QE believed to be inflationary money printing but doesn’t actually do anything
Gridlock presumed good but is actually bad as it could mean taxes rise at year end
Republican fiscal conservatives deemed ‘good’ but in fact bad with their spending cuts and budget balancing bias.
So three big ‘buy the rumor sell the news’ things coming together?
Could be a reversal of risk on, or even a confused reshuffle of what’s risk on and what isn’t.
For example, could be lower 10 year tsy yields as it will all be perceived to keep the Fed on hold that much longer, as well as gold and commodities and commodity currencies selling off due to the realization that the fed can’t reflate even if it wants to.
That means crude could be selling off and the dollar getting stronger, even with rates lower.
Not a good time to have any risk on, in my humble opinion.