And today it’s Vice Chairman Kohn


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Fed’s Kohn says risks of inflation psychology higher

by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

(Reuters) A steady rise in energy prices has fueled an inflationary psychology in the United States and could be a problem if it does not reverse, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said on Wednesday.

Seems this means the Fed has to act to get it to reverse- a rate hike at the June meeting will be on the table.

“Repeated increases in energy prices and their effect on overall inflation have contributed to a rise in the year- ahead inflation expectation of households,” Kohn said in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference organized by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank in Chatham, Mass.

Kohn said evidence that longer-term inflation expectations have edged up is a particular worry.

“Any tendency for these longer-term inflation expectations to drift higher or even fail to reverse over time would have troublesome implications for the outlook for inflation,” he said.


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2008-06-11 EU Highlights


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Highlights

French Inflation Accelerates to 12-Year High of 3.7%
Spain’s Core Inflation Accelerated in May as Food Costs Surged
Germany’s Weise Says Unemployment May Fall More Than Expected
Stark Says ECB Not Talking About Series of Increases

Doesn’t mean they won’t do it.

ECB’s Liikanen Sees Inflation Expectations Rising

If inflation expectations remain elevated.

Spain, Portugal, Italy Worry About Rate Increases, WSJ Says


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2008-06-11 US Economic Releases


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2008-06-11 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 376.2
Prior 333.6
Revised n/a

Moved up off the ‘bottom’ of the ‘new range’ and moving the same direction as pending home sales that surprised on the upside.

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2008-06-11 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 1622.1
Prior 1496.1
Revised n/a

Muddling through. Most of the resets have are now history.

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2008-06-11 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence

Survey n/a
Actual 21.01
Prior 22.73
Revised n/a

Global inflation cutting into consumer buying plans.

In some ways this conflicts with expectations theory that theorizes that consumers will accelerate purchases if they expect higher prices.

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2008-06-11 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (May)

Survey -$164.5B
Actual -$165.9B
Prior -$67.7B
Revised n/a

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2008-06-11 Federal Debt Percent GDP

Federal Debt Percent GDP


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