Posted by Sada Mosler on 29th February 2008
Personal Income YoY (Jan)
Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income.
This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, while higher interest rates support nominal growth.
Personal Expenditures Nominal$ YoY (Jan)
Nominal spending holding up. With our ‘new’ export economy, real spending gives way to exports, and GDP muddles through.
Personal Expenditures Chain YoY (Jan)
Personal Expenditure Price YoY (Jan)
This is problematic for the Fed.
Personal Expenditure Core YoY (Jan)
This is not easy for the Fed to watch, as they worked long and hard to bring it below 2% and back to their comfort zone of 1-2%. Now the concern is how hard it will be to bring down from even higher expected levels if they keep cutting rates.
Personal Consumption Market Based YoY (Jan)
As above, this is way too high for comfort.
Personal Consumption Market Based Core YoY (Jan)
Also as above. Ok, but threatening to move higher and be very costly to bring back down.
PCE Core YoY (Jan)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)
Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE
Definitely not good, but like ISM, a survey that gets subjective responses, and price components remain high.
New orders up as well.
U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)
U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE
While better than expected, does not look good.
And one year inflation expectations are up to 3.6%.
Below expectations, but positive. Probably won’t get reported anywhere else..