Tag Archives: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

2009-02-24 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.50%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 24)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.66
Prior 154.59
Revised 154.55

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Dec)

Survey -18.30%
Actual -18.55%
Prior -18.18%
Revised -18.20%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.04
Revised 150.00

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (4Q)

Survey -17.20%
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.60%
Revised -16.55%

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Consumer Confidence (Feb)

Survey 35.0
Actual 25.0
Prior 37.7
Revised 37.4

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Feb)

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House Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.7%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

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House Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.7%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index ALLX (Dec)

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (4Q)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -3.4%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

Survey -49
Actual -51
Prior -49
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Feb)


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2009-01-27 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.40%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.80%
Prior 1.10%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.30%
Prior -2.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.60%
Prior -2.50%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 27)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 154.59
Prior 158.16
Revised 158.12

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Nov)

Survey -18.40%
Actual -18.18%
Prior -18.04%
Revised -18.06%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.04
Prior 155.45
Revised n/a

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -16.55%
Prior -15.40%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Survey 39.0
Actual 37.7
Prior 38.0
Revised 38.6

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Jan)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

Survey -50
Actual -49
Prior -55
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Jan)


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2008-11-25 USER

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Karim writes:

  • Overlooked with the Fed headlines, but likely to lead to further downward revisions to Q4/Q1 growth outlook.

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.10%
Revised n/a

 
Looking very soft, even with low gasoline prices.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior 0.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

 
Same.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

 

Karim writes:

  • Johnson Redbook sales down 1.3% m/m thru 3rd week of November.
  • Another negative retail sales month sets up Q4 real GDP for at least -4%

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 25)

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q P)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
As expected and in line with the longer term down trend in real gdp growth

Good evidence of a continuing and increasing lack of aggregate demand.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.7%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Mildly positive but the trend is still looking down.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
Barely positive.

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GDP Price Index (3Q P)

Survey 4.2%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
High but expected to fall with falling commodity prices.

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be in a long term uptrend, though also expected to fall with commodity prices.

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GDP ALLX 1 (3Q P)

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GDP ALLX 2 (3Q P)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Sep)

Survey 163.00
Actual 161.56
Prior 164.57
Revised 164.40

 
Took a turn for the worse.

Karim writes:

  • Case Shiller down 1.85% q/q and -17.4% y/y

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Sep)

Survey -16.90%
Actual -17.40%
Prior -16.62%
Revised -16.60%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.04
Prior 155.32
Revised 155.45

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (3Q)

Survey -17.05%
Actual -16.55%
Prior -15.40%
Revised -15.07%

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Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Survey 38.0
Actual 44.9
Prior 38.0
Revised 38.8

 
Tiny blip up- well above expectations.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Nov)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Survey -27
Actual -38
Prior -26
Revised n/a

 
Far worse than expected, more in line with Q4 GDP forecasts of -4%.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Nov)

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House Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.8%

 
Also falling like a rock.

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House Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.0%
Prior -6.1%
Revised n/a

 
No sign of turning around yet.

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House Price Index ALLX (Sep)

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.8%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

 
The decline has resumed.


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2008-09-23 USER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep. 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Holding steady off the lows.

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.00%
Prior -1.60%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

 
Steady and off the lows as well.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Sep 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.20%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 23)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

Survey -12
Actual -18
Prior -16
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and looking very weak.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Sep)

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House Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior 0.0%
Revised -0.3%

 
Weaker than expected but still off the lows and seems to be working it’s way irregularly higher.

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House Price Index YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.3%
Prior -5.0%
Revised n/a

 
Losing 5.3% year over year is a lot for this index.

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House Price Index TABLE (Jul)


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2008-07-22 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jul 15)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Still wiggling their way higher as fiscal kicks in.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 15)

Survey n/
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

Also working its way higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jul 15)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)

Survey -9
Actual -16
Prior -12
Revised n/a

Big dip puts it back on its downtrend.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Jul)

Big drop in shipments,
interesting up tic in wages.

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OFHEO House Price Index MoM (May)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

Better than expected, still down, but seems to be falling at a slower rate.

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OFHEO House Price Index YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -4.6%
Revised n/a

Rate of decline seems to have diminished some. So far, year over year changes for this price range doesn’t seem that severe.

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OFHEO House Price Index TABLE (May)

Several regions showing gains.

Unless commodities take a very large dive, the Fed needs an output gap in housing to keep a lid on overall prices.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 20)

Survey -42
Actual -41
Prior -41
Revised n/a

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ABC Consumer Confidence TABLE (Jul 20)


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2008-06-24 Daily US Economic Releases

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S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index (Apr)

Survey
Actual 169.9
Prior 172.2
Revised 172.2

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S&P/Case Shiller Composite 20 YoY (Apr)

Survey -16.0%
Actual -15.3%
Prior -14.4%
Revised -14.3%

Karim writes:

  • Conf board survey drops to 16yr low, from 58.1 to 50.4
  • Current conditions drop 9.7pts and future expectations fall 6.3pts
  • 1yr fwd inflation expex unch at 7.7
  • All following drop to new cycle lows
  • Jobs plentiful less jobs hard to get (-12.2 to -16.4; pretty good leading indicator of unemployment rate)
  • Plans to buy auto in next 6mths from 5.1 to 4.8
  • Plans to buy a home from 2.4 to 2.2
  • Plans for a domestic vacation from 33.4 to 29.6
  • Plans for foreign vacation from 8.2 to 7.5

Inflation is biting harder than the lower Fed funds rate is helping.

The Fed has to decide whether a slightly higher Fed funds rate will bring more relief/benefit to consumers on the inflation side than possible additional drag from the interest rate side.
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Consumer Confidence (Jun)

Survey 56.0
Actual 50.4
Prior 57.2
Revised 58.1

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

Survey -5
Actual -12
Prior -5
Revised n/a

Not looking good.

Weakness and ‘inflation’ continue.
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House Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.8%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.6%

Back down, but at least not through the lows.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 22)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -44
Revised –


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2008-05-27 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-27 S&P-CaseShiller Home Price Index

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 172.2
Prior 175.9
Revised 176.0

Still moving lower. The sample is the 20 largest metro areas which were the regions hit hardest by the speculative bulge.

Broader measures don’t show this kind of depreciation.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Mar)

Survey -14.2%
Actual -14.4%
Prior -12.7%
Revised n/a

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS US HPI

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 159.2
Prior 170.6
Revised 170.6

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS US HPI YoY%

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY% (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.1%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Apr)

Survey 520K
Actual 526K
Prior 526K
Revised 509K

April up and higher than expected, March revised down some.

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2008-05-27 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey -1.1%
Actual 3.3%
Prior -8.5%
Revised -11.0%

As above.
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2008-05-27 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (May)

Survey 60.0
Actual 57.2
Prior 62.3
Revised 62.8

This is what an export economy looks like.

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2008-05-27 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

Survey 1
Actual -3
Prior 0
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-05-27 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (May 25)

Survey -49
Actual -51
Prior -49
Revised n/a

As above. Consumers are getting squeezed by inflation, while exports boom.

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2008-04-22 US Economic Releases

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  • Existing Home Sales
  • House Price Index
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
  • ABC Consumer Confidence

2008-04-22 Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 4.92M
Actual 4.93M
Prior 5.03M
Revised n/a

2008-04-22 Existing Home Sales MoM

Existing Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -2.3%
Actual -2.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

Better than expected.
Might really be a bottom forming.

2008-04-22 House Price Index MoM

House Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.0%

Up? Who would have thought?

2008-04-22 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Survey -1
Actual 0
Prior 6
Revised n/a

2008-04-22 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index TABLE

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index TABLE

Yes, another number better than expected and not looking so bad?

Fiscal package kicking in soon as well.

Prices firm through the slowdown, wonder what they might do if the economy stabilizes?

2008-04-22 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Apr 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -40
Prior -39
Revised n/a

Still constant negative news on TV.

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2008-03-25 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-25 S&P-CS Home Price Index

S&P-CS Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7
Prior 184.9
Revised 185.0

2008-03-25 S&P-CS Composite 20 YoY

S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (Jan)

Survey -10.5%
Actual -10.7%
Prior -9.1%
Revised -9.0%

Still falling.  January/Winter numbers.  Lagging indicators.

Just kicked in in March.

2008-03-25 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Survey 73.5
Actual 64.5
Prior 75.0
Revised 76.4

Down sharply, a lagging indicator, and subject to sharp reversals.

2008-03-25 House Price Index MoM

House Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.6%

Was still heading south in January.

2008-03-25 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

Survey -5
Actual 6
Prior -5
Revised n/a

Quite a few March numbers are looking up.

2008-03-25 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -31
Prior -31
Revised n/a

Another March number that shows some signs of life after a rough winter.

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2008-02-26 US Economic Releases

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2008-02-26 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.0%
Prior -0.1%
Revised -0.3%

2008-02-26 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey 7.3%
Actual 7.4%
Prior 6.3%
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jan)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

To high for the Fed and looking higher. Kohn speaking next today.

In the early 70’s inflation kept going up, even after crude flattened out for several years after a fivefold+ jump,

2008-02-26 S&P-CaseShiller Home Price Index

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 184.9
Prior 188.8
Revised 188.9

2008-02-26 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Dec)

Survey -9.7%
Actual -9.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 S&P-CS US HPI

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 170.6
Prior 180.5
Revised 180.3

2008-02-26 S&P-CS US HPI YoY%

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY% (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.9%
Prior -4.5%
Revised -4.6%

2008-02-26 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Feb)

Survey 82.0
Actual 75.0
Prior 87.9
Revised 87.3

2008-02-26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (Feb)

Survey -12
Actual -5
Prior -8
Revised n/a

2008-02-26 Housing Price Index QoQ

House Price Index QoQ (4Q)

Survey -1.0%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.2%

Not released yet..

ABC Consumer Confidence (Feb 24)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -37
Revised –

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