Tag Archives: Monster Employment Index

2008-10-02 USER

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Monster Employment Index (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 160.00
Prior 159.00
Revised n/a

 
Counter trend move higher?

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Monster Employment Index MoM (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Slightly positive.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

Survey 475K
Actual 497K
Prior 493K
Revised 496K

 
Still high, but subtract maybe 50,000 for hurricanes and maybe the Boeing strike as well.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 20)

Survey 3550K
Actual 3591K
Prior 3542K
Revised 3543K

 
This was leveling off until the extended benefits package took effect, and has resumed its climb since.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 27)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.76%
Prior -17.15%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 224.28
Prior 230.00
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Still trending up year over year, but combined with other recent data doesn’t look good.

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Factory Orders MoM (Aug)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE (Aug)

 
Defense keeping this from being a lot worse.

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Aug)

 
Shipments down, unfilled orders up.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 1k to 497k, with 40-50k still accounted for by hurricanes (4wk avg 474k).

  • Continuing claims, not effected by hurricanes, rise another 48k to new cycle high of 3542k (4wk avg 3528k).

  • Continuing claims more highly correlated to duration of unemployment and wage demands.

  • Consensus NFP tomorrow is -105k; based on claims, Conf Board and ISM surveys, risks seem more in -150k area.


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2008-07-02 US Economic Releases

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Monster Employment Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 163
Prior 166
Revised 174

Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.8
Prior 333.4
Revised n/a

Up some in the new, lower range.

In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.

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MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 1269.2
Prior 1212.2
Revised n/a

Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 46.7%
Prior 45.6%
Revised n/a

Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.

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ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)

Survey -20K
Actual -79K
Prior 40K
Revised 25K

Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.

The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.

Karim writes:

ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.

NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.

I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.67%
Prior -13.97%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 234.41
Prior 235.40
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.

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Factory Orders MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.3%

Better than expected and last month revised up some.

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Factory Orders Table (May)

Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.


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