Tag Archives: MBA Mortgage Applications

2008-06-18 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 13)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.8%
Prior 10.9%
Revised n/a

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MBAVPRCH Index (Jun 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 359.6
Prior 376.2
Revised n/a

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MBAVREFI Index (Jun 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 1378.6
Prior 1622.1
Revised n/a

Purchase applications remain in the ‘new’ range.

US mortgage refinance applications plunge – MBA

(Reuters) Applications for U.S. home mortgages dropped for the fourth week in the last five as soaring rates on standard, fixed-rate mortgages choked off refinancing opportunities, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity fell 8.7 percent to 508.4 in the week ended June 13.

The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications tumbled last week by 15 percent to 1,378.6 — its lowest since July 2006.

The gauge of loan requests for home purchases declined 4.3 percent to 360.2.


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2008-06-11 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-11 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 376.2
Prior 333.6
Revised n/a

Moved up off the ‘bottom’ of the ‘new range’ and moving the same direction as pending home sales that surprised on the upside.

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2008-06-11 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 1622.1
Prior 1496.1
Revised n/a

Muddling through. Most of the resets have are now history.

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2008-06-11 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence

Survey n/a
Actual 21.01
Prior 22.73
Revised n/a

Global inflation cutting into consumer buying plans.

In some ways this conflicts with expectations theory that theorizes that consumers will accelerate purchases if they expect higher prices.

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2008-06-11 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (May)

Survey -$164.5B
Actual -$165.9B
Prior -$67.7B
Revised n/a

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2008-06-11 Federal Debt Percent GDP

Federal Debt Percent GDP


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2008-06-04 US Economic Release

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2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 333.6
Prior 352.7
Revised n/a

Not looking good, as the ‘old consumption economy’ – cars, houses, etc.- gives way to the new export economy with the allocations coming via ‘price’ as higher food/fuel prices take away domestic spending power and the foreign sector scrambles to spend it’s now unwanted multi $trillion hoard on US goods, services, and domestic assets, and keeps GDP muddling through.

First, probably fighting strong seasonals.

Second, purchase applications fall off doesn’t jibe with recent housing data and confidence numbers that have been rebounding.

Third, mortgage bankers could be continuing to lose market share to banks and other direct lenders as secondary markets remain problematic.

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2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1496.1
Prior 2013.5
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.6%
Prior 27.4%
Revised n/a

Moving up. This hasn’t been much of an economic indicator, but employment is a lagging indicator and it makes sense for it to keep getting worse for a couple of quarters or so past the bottom of the cycle.

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2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

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2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

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2008-06-04 US Hiring

Hiring

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2008-06-04 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (May)

Survey -30K
Actual 40K
Prior 10K
Revised 13K

This report is private sector only. Government employment may be ticking up as we approach the election, as spending delayed from 2007 kicks in.

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2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ

Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity YoY

Nonfarm Productivity YoY (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs QoQ

Unit Labor Costs QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs per Unit

Unit Labor Cost per Unit (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 117.9
Prior 118.0
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (May)

Survey 51.0
Actual 51.7
Prior 52.0
Revised n/a

Another better than expected report. Clearly above recession levels, and supporting forecasts for higher GDP this quarter.

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2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

Most categories noticeably stronger. Employment down some, but the average of the last few months is rising. New Exports Orders back up as well.

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2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

Survey n/a
Actual 77.0
Prior 72.1
Revised n/a

This is getting ‘out of control’ from the FOMC’s point of view.


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2008-05-28 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-28 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 352.7
Prior 352.5
Revised n/a

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2008-05-28 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 2013.5
Prior 2210.5
Revised n/a

Both holding their own.

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2008-05-28 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Apr)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-28 Durables Ex Transportation

Durables Ex Transportations (Apr)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 2.5%
Prior 1.5%
Revised 1.7%

Yet another set of ‘better than expected’ releases.


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2008-05-21 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-21 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 352.5
Prior 378.5
Revised n/a

Seems comfortably in the recent range.

Mortgage banking not what it used to be.

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2008-05-21 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 2210.5
Prior 2422.1
Revised n/a

Looks okay.


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2008-05-14 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-14 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH (May 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 378.5
Prior 381.3
Revised n/a

Not bad. Still supports the notion that housing bottomed in Q4.

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2008-05-14 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 2422.1
Prior 2273.8
Revised n/a

Refi market alive and well.

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2008-05-14 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 22.73
Prior 14.54
Revised n/a

Speaks for itself.

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Core Index SA

CPI Core Index SA (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 214.398
Prior 214.176
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index NSA

Consumer Price Index NSA (Apr)

Survey 214.715
Actual 214.823
Prior 214.528
Revised n/a

It’s all being said on CNBC – seasonals that subtract this month add later in the year.


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2008-05-07 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-07 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.3
Prior 340.1
Revised n/a

Seems to have at least stabilized.

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2008-05-07 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2773.8
Prior 1905.2
Revised n/a

Doing okay.

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2008-05-07 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (1Q P)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 1.8%

Better than expected. Usually rises with output.

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2008-05-07 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (1Q P)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.8%

Better then expected, prior revised up. This series isn’t doing much.

Look to imports from China for a handle on unit labor costs as well.

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2008-05-07 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -1.9%
Revised -2.8%

Still falling some, seasonally adjusted, and with actual inventory going down there is less to buy.

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2008-05-07 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (Mar)

Survey $6.0B
Actual $15.3B
Prior $5.2B
Revised $6.5B

Volatile series.
Seems to be holding up as incomes hold up.

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2008-04-30 US Economic Releases

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2008-04-30 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 25)

Survey n/a
Actual 340.1
Prior 357.3
Revised n/a

Definately looking weak. Winter is over, and tax rebates are in the mail.

2008-04-30 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 1905.2
Prior 2286.3
Revised n/a

Settling down as well.

2008-04-30 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey -60K
Actual 10K
Prior 8K
Revised 3K

Employment growth continues to slow over time but not yet signaling recession.

Non-farm payrolls muddling through as well.

2008-04-30 GDP QoQ Annualized

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Still in the black, and my guess is it’s likely to be revised up with the March trade numbers that are due in in a couple of weeks.

2008-04-30 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (1Q A)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Also holding up better than expected, and rebates are on the way.

2008-04-30 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (1Q A)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

Better than expected, still high, and with crude continuing to move up it’s going up as well.

2008-04-30 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (1Q A)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

The trend is up, and the Fed is monitoring it closely…

2008-04-30 Employment Cost Index

Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

Looks under control, but not a brake on inflation.

2008-04-30 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 47.5%
Actual 48.3%
Prior 48.2%
Revised n/a

A touch better than expected, but still trending lower.

2008-04-30 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 48.0
Prior 47.0
Revised n/a

Also not down to recession levels yet.

2008-04-30 FOMC Rate Decision

FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 30)

Survey 2.00%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.25%
Revised n/a

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2008-04-16 US Economic Releases

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  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Bloomberg Global Confidence
  • Consumer Price Index
  • Housing Starts
  • Building Permits
  • Industrial Production
  • Capacity Utilization

2008-04-16 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.6
Prior 384.7
Revised n/a

Holding in its new, lower range.

2008-04-16 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 2866.0
Prior 2724.7
Revised n/a

Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.

2008-04-16 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 14.54
Prior 13.08
Revised n/a

Still down, but signs of a bottom.

In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.

2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

From Karim:

Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough

  • Headline 0.343% and stays at 4% y/y

  • Core rises 0.152% (after 0.04% last month), showing limited pass-through from headline and even more limited pass-through from wholesale level (PPI from yday).

  • Core rises from 2.3% to 2.4%, equates to about 1.9-2.0% on core PCE basis due to measurement differences

  • Food up 0.2% and gas up 1.3%

  • OER up 0.2%, apparel down 1.3%, vehicles down 0.1%

  • Lodging away from home down 0.6% and medical up only 0.1%, a bit below trend

Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.

2008-04-16 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Mar)

Survey 1010K
Actual 947K
Prior 1065K
Revised 1075K

2008-04-16 Building Permits

Building Permits (Mar)

Survey 970K
Actual 927K
Prior 978K
Revised 984K

From Karim:

Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity

  • Starts down 11.9%, boding poorly for current GDP

  • Permits down 5.8%, boding poorly for future GDP

  • Best news is not adding to inventories

2008-04-16 Industrial Production

Industrial Production (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -0.7%

May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through

2008-04-16 Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization (Mar)

Survey 80.3%
Actual 80.5%
Prior 80.9%
Revised 80.3%

Staying too high for the typical recession.

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