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Karim writes:
- Overlooked with the Fed headlines, but likely to lead to further downward revisions to Q4/Q1 growth outlook.
![2008-11-25 ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-icsc-ubs-store-sales-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 25)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-0.80% |
Prior |
-0.10% |
Revised |
n/a |
Looking very soft, even with low gasoline prices.
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![2008-11-25 ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-icsc-ubs-store-sales-wow-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 25)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-0.90% |
Prior |
0.30% |
Revised |
n/a |
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![2008-11-25 Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-redbook-store-sales-weekly-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 25)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-1.40% |
Prior |
-0.90% |
Revised |
n/a |
Same.
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![2008-11-25 Redbook Store Sales MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-redbook-store-sales-mom-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 25)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-1.30% |
Prior |
-1.10% |
Revised |
n/a |
Karim writes:
- Johnson Redbook sales down 1.3% m/m thru 3rd week of November.
- Another negative retail sales month sets up Q4 real GDP for at least -4%
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![2008-11-25 ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-icsc-ubs-redbook-comparison-table-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 25)
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![2008-11-25 GDP QoQ Annualized](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-gdp-qoq-annualized-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q P)
Survey |
-0.5% |
Actual |
-0.5% |
Prior |
-0.3% |
Revised |
n/a |
As expected and in line with the longer term down trend in real gdp growth
Good evidence of a continuing and increasing lack of aggregate demand.
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![2008-11-25 GDP YoY Annualized Real](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-gdp-yoy-annualized-real-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q P)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
0.7% |
Prior |
2.1% |
Revised |
n/a |
Mildly positive but the trend is still looking down.
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![2008-11-25 GDP YoY Annualized Nominal](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-gdp-yoy-annualized-nominal-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q P)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
3.4% |
Prior |
4.1% |
Revised |
n/a |
Barely positive.
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![2008-11-25 GDP Price Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-gdp-price-index-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
GDP Price Index (3Q P)
Survey |
4.2% |
Actual |
4.2% |
Prior |
4.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
High but expected to fall with falling commodity prices.
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![2008-11-25 Core PCE QoQ](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-core-pce-qoq-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Core PCE QoQ (3Q P)
Survey |
2.9% |
Actual |
2.6% |
Prior |
2.9% |
Revised |
n/a |
Looks to be in a long term uptrend, though also expected to fall with commodity prices.
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![2008-11-25 GDP ALLX 1](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-gdp-allx-1-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
GDP ALLX 1 (3Q P)
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![2008-11-25 GDP ALLX 2](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-gdp-allx-2-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
GDP ALLX 2 (3Q P)
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![2008-11-25 S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Sep)
Survey |
163.00 |
Actual |
161.56 |
Prior |
164.57 |
Revised |
164.40 |
Took a turn for the worse.
Karim writes:
- Case Shiller down 1.85% q/q and -17.4% y/y
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![2008-11-25 S&P CS Composite 20 YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-sp-cs-composite-20-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Sep)
Survey |
-16.90% |
Actual |
-17.40% |
Prior |
-16.62% |
Revised |
-16.60% |
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![2008-11-25 S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-sp-case-shiller-us-home-price-index-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (3Q)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
150.04 |
Prior |
155.32 |
Revised |
155.45 |
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![2008-11-25 S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-sp-case-shiller-us-home-price-index-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (3Q)
Survey |
-17.05% |
Actual |
-16.55% |
Prior |
-15.40% |
Revised |
-15.07% |
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![2008-11-25 Consumer Confidence](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-consumer-confidence-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Consumer Confidence (Nov)
Survey |
38.0 |
Actual |
44.9 |
Prior |
38.0 |
Revised |
38.8 |
Tiny blip up- well above expectations.
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![2008-11-25 Consumer Confidence ALLX 1](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-consumer-confidence-allx-1-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Nov)
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![2008-11-25 Consumer Confidence ALLX 2](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-consumer-confidence-allx-2-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Nov)
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![2008-11-25 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-richmond-fed-manufacturing-index-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
Survey |
-27 |
Actual |
-38 |
Prior |
-26 |
Revised |
n/a |
Far worse than expected, more in line with Q4 GDP forecasts of -4%.
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![2008-11-25 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-richmond-fed-manufacturing-index-allx-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Nov)
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![2008-11-25 House Price Index MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-house-price-index-mom-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
House Price Index MoM (Sep)
Survey |
-0.7% |
Actual |
-1.3% |
Prior |
-0.6% |
Revised |
-0.8% |
Also falling like a rock.
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![2008-11-25 House Price Index YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-house-price-index-yoy-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
House Price Index YoY (Sep)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-7.0% |
Prior |
-6.1% |
Revised |
n/a |
No sign of turning around yet.
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![2008-11-25 House Price Index ALLX](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-house-price-index-allx-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
House Price Index ALLX (Sep)
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![2008-11-25 House Price Purchase Index QoQ](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/11/2008-11-25-house-price-purchase-index-qoq-small.gif)
![click for larger graph](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Zoom_In.gif)
![click for description](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/Info.gif)
House Price Purchase Index QoQ (3Q)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-1.8% |
Prior |
-1.4% |
Revised |
n/a |
The decline has resumed.
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