Tag Archives: ICSC-UBS Store Sales

2009-02-18 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.00%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -1.70%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.70%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.7%
Prior -24.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 257.30
Prior 235.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 4472.90
Prior 2722.70
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.2%
Revised -5.0%

 
Karim writes:

  • Import prices -1.1% m/m and -12.5% y/y; -0.8% m/m ex-petroleum; imports from China -0.7% m/m (-0.5% and -0.7% prior 2mths)

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    Import Price Index YoY (Jan)

    Survey -11.2%
    Actual -12.5%
    Prior -9.3%
    Revised -10.3%

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    Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Jan)

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    Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Jan)

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    Housing Starts (Jan)

    Survey 529K
    Actual 466K
    Prior 550K
    Revised 560K

     
    Karim writes:

    Housing starts and building permits fall to all-time lows.

    • Starts -16.8% m/m (all 4 regions down) and -56.2% y/y; 3rd consecutive double digit m/m decline

    • Permits -4.8% m/m (all 4 regions down)

    • When adding the supply of vacant homes (over 1mm) to starts, excess supply (relative to new household formation and obsolesence) still exists and in turn downward pressure on home prices

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    Building Permits (Jan)

    Survey 525K
    Actual 521K
    Prior 549K
    Revised 547K

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    Industrial Production MoM (Jan)

    Survey -1.5%
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -2.0%
    Revised -2.4%

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    Industrial Production YoY (Jan)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -10.0%
    Prior -8.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Jan)

    Survey 72.4%
    Actual 72.0%
    Prior 73.6%
    Revised 73.3%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Jan)


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    2009-02-10 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.80%
    Prior -2.50%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.00%
    Prior 1.60%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.70%
    Prior -2.70%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.70%
    Prior -2.70%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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    Wholesale Inventories MoM (Dec)

    Survey -0.7%
    Actual -1.4%
    Prior -0.6%
    Revised -0.9%

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    Wholesale Inventories YoY (Dec)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 6.3%
    Prior 7.9%
    Revised n/a

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    Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Dec)

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    Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Dec)

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    IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Feb)

    Survey 44.0
    Actual 44.6
    Prior 45.4
    Revised n/a


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    2009-02-03 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 3)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.50%
    Prior -2.40%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 3)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 1.60%
    Prior -1.80%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 3)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.70%
    Prior -2.30%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 3)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.70%
    Prior -2.60%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 3)

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    Pending Home Sales MoM (Dec)

    Survey 0.0%
    Actual 6.3%
    Prior -4.0%
    Revised -3.7%

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    Pending Home Sales YoY (Dec)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 6.0%
    Prior 9.5%
    Revised n/a

     
    Chewing through the foreclosures.


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    2009-01-27 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 27)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.40%
    Prior -1.80%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 27)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.80%
    Prior 1.10%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 27)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.30%
    Prior -2.30%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 27)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.60%
    Prior -2.50%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 27)

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    S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 154.59
    Prior 158.16
    Revised 158.12

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    S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Nov)

    Survey -18.40%
    Actual -18.18%
    Prior -18.04%
    Revised -18.06%

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    S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 150.04
    Prior 155.45
    Revised n/a

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    S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -16.55%
    Prior -15.40%
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Confidence (Jan)

    Survey 39.0
    Actual 37.7
    Prior 38.0
    Revised 38.6

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Jan)

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Jan)

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    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

    Survey -50
    Actual -49
    Prior -55
    Revised n/a

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    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Jan)


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    2009-01-21 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 20)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.80%
    Prior -2.20%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 20)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 1.10%
    Prior -2.30%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 20)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.30%
    Prior -1.90%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 20)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.50%
    Prior -2.30%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 20)


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    2009-01-13 USER

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    Even with lower fuel prices it keeps getting worse.

    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 13)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.20%
    Prior -0.80%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 13)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.30%
    Prior 1.40%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 13)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.90%
    Prior -1.30%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 13)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -2.30%
    Prior -0.60%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 13)

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    Trade Balance (Nov)

    Survey -$51.0B
    Actual -$40.4B
    Prior -$57.2B
    Revised -$56.7B

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    Exports MoM (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -5.8%
    Prior -2.3%
    Revised n/a

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    Imports MoM (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -12.0%
    Prior -1.6%
    Revised n/a

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    Exports YoY (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.7%
    Prior 5.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Imports YoY (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -10.6%
    Prior 3.9%
    Revised n/a

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    Trade Balance ALLX (Nov)

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    IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan)

    Survey 44.0
    Actual 45.4
    Prior 45.0
    Revised n/a

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    Monthly Budget Statement (Dec)

    Survey -$83.0B
    Actual -$83.6B
    Prior -$48.3B
    Revised n/a

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    Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (Dec)


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    2008-12-30 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

     
    Sinking.

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

     
    Falling back, even with low fuel prices.

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

     
    Still way down.

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

     
    Still negative.

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (-)

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    S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

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    S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

     
    Still heading south as foreclosures continue to take their toll.

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    S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

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    S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

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    Chicago Purchasing Manager (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

     
    Remains very low.

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    Consumer Confidence (-)

    Survey –
    Actual –
    Prior –
    Revised –

     
    Not much to be confident about.

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (-)

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (-)


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    2008-12-09 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 9)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.70%
    Prior 1.30%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 9)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.80%
    Prior 0.10%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 9)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.80%
    Prior -0.40%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 9)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.40%
    Prior -1.10%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 9)

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    Pending Home Sales MoM (Oct)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.7%
    Prior -4.3%
    Revised n/a

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    Pending Home Sales YoY (Oct)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.6%
    Prior 7.9%
    Revised n/a


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    2008-11-25 USER

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    Karim writes:

    • Overlooked with the Fed headlines, but likely to lead to further downward revisions to Q4/Q1 growth outlook.

    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 25)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.80%
    Prior -0.10%
    Revised n/a

     
    Looking very soft, even with low gasoline prices.

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 25)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.90%
    Prior 0.30%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 25)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.40%
    Prior -0.90%
    Revised n/a

     
    Same.

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 25)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.30%
    Prior -1.10%
    Revised n/a

     

    Karim writes:

    • Johnson Redbook sales down 1.3% m/m thru 3rd week of November.
    • Another negative retail sales month sets up Q4 real GDP for at least -4%

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 25)

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    GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q P)

    Survey -0.5%
    Actual -0.5%
    Prior -0.3%
    Revised n/a

     
    As expected and in line with the longer term down trend in real gdp growth

    Good evidence of a continuing and increasing lack of aggregate demand.

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    GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q P)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.7%
    Prior 2.1%
    Revised n/a

     
    Mildly positive but the trend is still looking down.

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    GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q P)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 3.4%
    Prior 4.1%
    Revised n/a

     
    Barely positive.

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    GDP Price Index (3Q P)

    Survey 4.2%
    Actual 4.2%
    Prior 4.2%
    Revised n/a

     
    High but expected to fall with falling commodity prices.

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    Core PCE QoQ (3Q P)

    Survey 2.9%
    Actual 2.6%
    Prior 2.9%
    Revised n/a

     
    Looks to be in a long term uptrend, though also expected to fall with commodity prices.

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    GDP ALLX 1 (3Q P)

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    GDP ALLX 2 (3Q P)

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    S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Sep)

    Survey 163.00
    Actual 161.56
    Prior 164.57
    Revised 164.40

     
    Took a turn for the worse.

    Karim writes:

    • Case Shiller down 1.85% q/q and -17.4% y/y

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    S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Sep)

    Survey -16.90%
    Actual -17.40%
    Prior -16.62%
    Revised -16.60%

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    S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (3Q)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 150.04
    Prior 155.32
    Revised 155.45

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    S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (3Q)

    Survey -17.05%
    Actual -16.55%
    Prior -15.40%
    Revised -15.07%

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    Consumer Confidence (Nov)

    Survey 38.0
    Actual 44.9
    Prior 38.0
    Revised 38.8

     
    Tiny blip up- well above expectations.

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Nov)

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Nov)

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    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

    Survey -27
    Actual -38
    Prior -26
    Revised n/a

     
    Far worse than expected, more in line with Q4 GDP forecasts of -4%.

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    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Nov)

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    House Price Index MoM (Sep)

    Survey -0.7%
    Actual -1.3%
    Prior -0.6%
    Revised -0.8%

     
    Also falling like a rock.

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    House Price Index YoY (Sep)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -7.0%
    Prior -6.1%
    Revised n/a

     
    No sign of turning around yet.

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    House Price Index ALLX (Sep)

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    House Price Purchase Index QoQ (3Q)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -1.4%
    Revised n/a

     
    The decline has resumed.


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    2008-10-28 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Oct 28)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 1.30%
    Prior 0.90%
    Revised n/a

     
    Maybe rebounding some with lower gas prices?

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Oct. 28)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.50%
    Prior -1.60%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Oct. 28)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.70%
    Prior 0.80%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Oct. 28)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.10%
    Prior -1.10%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Oct. 28)

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    S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Aug)

    Survey -16.60%
    Actual -16.62%
    Prior -16.35%
    Revised -16.32%

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    S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Aug)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 164.57
    Prior 166.23
    Revised 166.29

     
    Still falling but at a slower rate

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    S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (Aug)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -15.38%
    Prior -14.22%
    Revised n/a

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    Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Aug)

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    Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Aug)

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    Consumer Confidence (Oct)

    Survey 52.0
    Actual 38.0
    Prior 59.8
    Revised 61.4

     
    Major dip here.

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Oct)

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    Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Oct)

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    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)

    Survey -23
    Actual -26
    Prior -18
    Revised n/a

     
    Also bad.

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    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Oct)


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