Tag Archives: Housing Starts

PPI/starts

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Karim writes:

2nd Tier Data – not a view changer:

  • Starts down 1%, but single-family up 1.7%; multi-family down 13.3%
  • Permits down 1.8%, but single-family up 5.8%; multi-family down 25.5%
  • PPI -0.9% headline and -0.1% core
  • Core PPI has fallen 2 of the past 3mths and as a decent leading indicator of core CPI, probably the most notable feature of this report
  • Intermediate stage -0.2% and 0.2%
  • Crude stage -4.5% and +2.9%



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2009-04-16 USER

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Housing Starts (Mar)

Survey 540K
Actual 510K
Prior 583K
Revised 572K

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Building Permits (Mar)

Survey 549K
Actual 513K
Prior 547K
Revised 564K

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 11)

Survey 660K
Actual 610K
Prior 654K
Revised 663K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 4)

Survey 5893K
Actual 6022K
Prior 5840K
Revised 5850K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 11)

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Philadelphia Fed (Apr)

Survey -32.0
Actual -24.4
Prior -35.0
Revised n/a

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Apr)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Apr)


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2009-03-17 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Mar 17)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.4%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Mar 17)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Mar 17)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.1%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Mar 17)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey -1.4%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Feb)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
Core coming down very slowly, given the extent of the drop in headline CPI.

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Housing Starts (Feb)

Survey 450K
Actual 583K
Prior 466K
Revised 477K

 
Probably the end of the housing bust.

New Homes Inventory (Feb)

 
New home inventories are exceptionally low, especially population adjusted.

This was a very severe inventory liquidation.

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Building Permits (Feb)

Survey 500K
Actual 547K
Prior 521K
Revised 531K


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Japan’s housing starts down yet higher than US

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With maybe half the population, and with housing in a slump, Japan still has more actual housing starts than the US.

While the Obama plan is ‘not my first choice’ for a fiscal adjustment, it isn’t ‘nothing’ either, and should be more than sufficient stabilize aggregate demand, albeit at low levels.

This, coupled with low and falling physical inventories, could easily set off a somewhat jobless recovery that initially shows some very high percentage increases in many areas.

The Obamaboom is on the way, along with its consequences.

Japan’s housing starts decline 19% in January

Feb 27 (Kyodo) — Japan’s housing starts fell 18.7% year on year to 70,688 units in January, the second straight month of decline, according to data released Friday by the Land Ministry.

Starts for owner-occupied houses fell 10.8% to 20,057, making for the fourth consecutive month of decline, while those for rental houses dropped 18.4% to 31,628, the second straight month of decline. Starts for condominiums for sale also fell for the second straight month, plunging 26.4% to 18,434.


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2009-02-18 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.00%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -1.70%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.70%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.7%
Prior -24.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 257.30
Prior 235.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 4472.90
Prior 2722.70
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.2%
Revised -5.0%

 
Karim writes:

  • Import prices -1.1% m/m and -12.5% y/y; -0.8% m/m ex-petroleum; imports from China -0.7% m/m (-0.5% and -0.7% prior 2mths)

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    Import Price Index YoY (Jan)

    Survey -11.2%
    Actual -12.5%
    Prior -9.3%
    Revised -10.3%

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    Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Jan)

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    Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Jan)

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    Housing Starts (Jan)

    Survey 529K
    Actual 466K
    Prior 550K
    Revised 560K

     
    Karim writes:

    Housing starts and building permits fall to all-time lows.

    • Starts -16.8% m/m (all 4 regions down) and -56.2% y/y; 3rd consecutive double digit m/m decline

    • Permits -4.8% m/m (all 4 regions down)

    • When adding the supply of vacant homes (over 1mm) to starts, excess supply (relative to new household formation and obsolesence) still exists and in turn downward pressure on home prices

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    Building Permits (Jan)

    Survey 525K
    Actual 521K
    Prior 549K
    Revised 547K

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    Industrial Production MoM (Jan)

    Survey -1.5%
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -2.0%
    Revised -2.4%

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    Industrial Production YoY (Jan)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -10.0%
    Prior -8.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Jan)

    Survey 72.4%
    Actual 72.0%
    Prior 73.6%
    Revised 73.3%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Jan)


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    2009-01-22 USER

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    MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 16)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -9.8%
    Prior 15.8%
    Revised n/a

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    MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 16)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 303.10
    Prior 295.10
    Revised n/a

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    MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 16)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 6491.80
    Prior 7414.10
    Revised n/a

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    Housing Starts (Dec)

    Survey 605K
    Actual 550K
    Prior 625K
    Revised 651K

     
    Karim writes:

    • Housing starts fell 16% in December and building permits fell 10.7%, and both to all-time lows in nominal terms.
    • These numbers indicate that housing will be a drag on the economy in terms of GDP accounting at least through year-end.
    • The level of starts consistent with new household formation (and adjusting for obsolescence of the existing housing stock) is about 1.25mm.
    • But what the current level of starts of 550k does not reflect is the record level of vacant homes (about 1mm more than the 1985-2005 average).

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    Building Permits (Dec)

    Survey 600K
    Actual 549K
    Prior 616K
    Revised 615K

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 17)

    Survey 543K
    Actual 589K
    Prior 524K
    Revised 527K

     
    Karim writes:

    • Initial claims jumped 62k to 589k, and continuing claims by 93k to 4607k.
    • Both are new highs for the current cycle and the highest since 1982.

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    Continuing Claims (Jan 10)

    Survey 4534K
    Actual 4607K
    Prior 4497K
    Revised 4510K

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 17)

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    House Price Index MoM (Nov)

    Survey -1.2%
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -1.1%
    Revised n/a

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    House Price Index YoY (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -8.7%
    Prior -7.6%
    Revised n/a

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    House Price Index ALLX (Nov)


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    2008-12-16 USER

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 16)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.40%
    Prior 0.40%
    Revised n/a

     
    Continues to move lower.

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    ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 16)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.60%
    Prior -0.80%
    Revised n/a

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 9)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.80%
    Prior -0.40%
    Revised n/a

     
    Continues to move lower.

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    Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 9)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.40%
    Prior -1.10%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 9)

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    Consumer Price Index MoM (Nov)

    Survey -1.3%
    Actual -1.7%
    Prior -1.0%
    Revised n/a

     

    Karim writes:

    • Headline CPI dropped 1.7% M/M in November after 1.0% decline last month (Y/Y now at +1.1%)

    • Core was flat in November after 0.1% decline (Y/Y at 2.0% and 3 month annualized at 0.4%… core is decelerating quickly and inflation certainly not a concern for Fed at this point)

    • OER was up 0.3% M/M, but partly due to a decline in utility prices that increases economic rents

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    CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Nov)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual 0.0%
    Prior -0.1%
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index YoY (Nov)

    Survey 1.5%
    Actual 1.1%
    Prior 3.7%
    Revised n/a

     
    Way down, as crude oil and gasoline are lower than they were last year.

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    CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Nov)

    Survey 2.1%
    Actual 2.0%
    Prior 2.2%
    Revised n/a

     
    Core drifting lower though owner equivalent rent went up .30% as utility costs fell and rents stayed about the same.

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    CPI Core Index SA (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 216.849
    Prior 216.801
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index NSA (Nov)

    Survey 212.699
    Actual 212.425
    Prior 216.573
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Nov)

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Nov)

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Nov)

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    Housing Starts (Nov)

    Survey 763K
    Actual 625K
    Prior 791K
    Revised 771K

     
    Keeps falling as the headlines have the public and financial institutions scared stiff.

    Karim writes:

    • Housing Starts dropped to 625k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 771k last month and 1,179k last year (this should put more downward pressure on residential investment in GDP through early 2009)

    • Permits dropped to 616k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 730k last month and 1,111k last year

    • Token “Sliver” lining- less pressure on inventories from new homes

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    Building Permits (Nov)

    Survey 700K
    Actual 616K
    Prior 708K
    Revised 730K

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    2008-11-19 USER

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    MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 14)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -6.2%
    Prior 11.9%
    Revised n/a

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    MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 14)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 248.50
    Prior 284.40
    Revised n/a

     
    Back down big time.

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    MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 14)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 1281.20
    Prior 1248.40
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index MoM (Oct)

    Survey -0.8%
    Actual -1.0%
    Prior 0.0%
    Revised n/a

     
    Not much of a surprise led by gasoline prices. More to come.

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    CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Oct)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual -0.1%
    Prior 0.1%
    Revised n/a

     
    Lower than expected. Owner equivalent remains positive at up 0.1%.

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    Consumer Price Index YoY (Oct)

    Survey 4.0%
    Actual 3.7%
    Prior 4.9%
    Revised n/a

     
    Coming down quickly with the fall in gasoline prices, much like Aug 06 when Goldman changed their commodity index and triggered a liquidation of gasoline inventories.

    Karim writes:

    • Largest single mthly fall on record in headline CPI: -0.961%
    • Core also falls, by 0.071%
    • Service inflation now unchanged for 2 straight months
    • OER up 0.1%
    • Apparel -1%, vehicles -0.7% (new -0.5%, used -2.4%)
    • Medical care and education each up 0.2%
    • Market strains + output gap + weaker commodities to lead to falling/slowing inflation in period ahead

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    CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Oct)

    Survey 2.4%
    Actual 2.2%
    Prior 2.5%
    Revised n/a

     
    Also moving down.

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    CPI Core Index SA (Oct)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 216.801
    Prior 216.956
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index NSA (Oct)

    Survey 216.700
    Actual 216.573
    Prior 218.783
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Oct)

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Oct)

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Oct)

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    Housing Starts (Oct)

    Survey 780K
    Actual 791K
    Prior 817K
    Revised 828K

     
    Looking grim again after showing signs of bottoming.

    Karim writes:

    • October housing starts down another 4.5% and permits down 12%-contribution from housing to GDP will remain a significant drag at least thru Q2 2009 (based on lag from permits to construction).

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    Building Permits (Oct)

    Survey 774K
    Actual 708K
    Prior 786K
    Revised 805K


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    2008-08-19 US Economic Releases

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    ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Aug 19)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.1%
    Prior 1.1%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Aug 19)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 2.4%
    Prior 2.6%
    Revised n/a

    Doing just fine, especially considering the financial sector is gone.

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    Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Aug 19)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 1.3%
    Prior 1.5%
    Revised n/a

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    ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Aug 19)

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    Producer Price Index MoM (Jul)

    Survey 0.6%
    Actual 1.2%
    Prior 1.8%
    Revised n/a

    Up more than expected.

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    PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jul)

    Survey 0.2%
    Actual 0.7%
    Prior 0.2%
    Revised n/a

    Core nudging up a touch…

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    Producer Price Index YoY (Jul)

    Survey 9.3%
    Actual 9.8%
    Prior 9.2%
    Revised n/a

    Just a little blip up that’s starting to make the 1970s look tame.

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    PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jul)

    Survey 3.2%
    Actual 3.5%
    Prior 3.0%
    Revised n/a

    Cute little break out here too.

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    PPI TABLE 1 (Jul)

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    PPI TABLE 2 (Jul)

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    PPI TABLE 3 (Jul)

    Karim writes:

    • PPI for July up 1.2% and 0.7% ex-food and energy

    • Core driven by cars and trucks the past 2mths (seems out of line w/cpi data) and medical

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    Housing Starts (Jul)

    Survey 960K
    Actual 965K
    Prior 1066K
    Revised 1084K

    A bit higher than expected, and last month revised up.

    Averaging out the last couple of months or so to smooth the NY situation indicates a leveling off and probably a bottom.

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    Building Permits (Jul)

    Survey 970K
    Actual 937K
    Prior 1091K
    Revised 1138K

    Down, but last month revised up. Same as above.

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    Housing Starts TABLE 1 (Jul)

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    Housing Starts TABLE 2 (Jul)

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    Housing Starts TABLE 3 (Jul)

    Karim writes:

    • Starts fall 11% after upward revision to June (now up 10.4%)

    • Noise in data still surrounds multi-family due to change in NYC building code (multi-family dropped 23.6% after rising 41.3% in June)

    • Single family drops another 2.9% after 3.2% drop in June and now down 39.2% y/y

    • Same story with permits, down 17.7% m/m after 16.4% rise in June

    • Single family permits down 5.2% m/m after -3% in June and down 41.4% y/y

    • Multi-family down 32.4% m/m after up 52.2% m/m in June

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    ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 17)

    Survey -50
    Actual -49
    Prior -50
    Revised n/a

    very low, may be bottoming, confidence being hurt by inflation.


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