Tag Archives: Durable Goods Orders

2008-07-25 US Economic Releases

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.3%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.0%
Revised 0.1%

Better than expected, partially because fiscal and government is kicking in harder than expected.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.3%
Prior -2.7%
Revised n/a

Still has turned up in a meaningful way, but moving away from recession levels.

When car sales normalize we’ll see a further boost.

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Durables Ex Transportation (Jun)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 2.0%
Prior -0.8%
Revised -0.5%

Headline numbers being held down by car sales.

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Durable Goods Orders ALLX (Jun)

Durables better than expected, likely due to companies taking advantage of new accelerated depreciation allowance

  • Capital goods orders ex-defense and aircraft up 1.4%
  • Defense orders up 30% in past 2mths, so production/shipments likely to improve for some manufacturers in coming months

    • Small appliances up as well. Seems some rebate checks went for down payments on appliances and home improvements.

    Electronics and consumer goods down.

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    U of Michigan Confidence (Jul F)

    Survey 56.4
    Actual 61.2
    Prior 56.6
    Revised n/a

    Better than expected and a possible bottom from a very low level.

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    U of Michigan Confidence ALLX (Jul F)

    Gas prices ‘stabilizing’ likely lead to the modest improvement in the Michigan survey and the ebbing of inflation expectations:

    • Headline confidence rose from 56.6 to 61.2

    Don’t underestimate the fiscal package!

    • 5-10yr inflation expectations fell from 3.4% to 3.2%

    One year steady at 5.1%.

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    Inflation Expectations 1yr Forward (Jul F)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 5.1%
    Prior 5.1%
    Revised n/a

    Two months over 5% is very troubling for the Fed. They see this as a direct cause of inflation.

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    Inflation Expectations 5yr Forward (Jul F)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 3.2%
    Prior 3.4%
    Revised n/a

    Down some but still way too high.

    The Fed wants this back to their long term target of something under 2.5%.

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    New Home Sales (Jun)

    Survey 503K
    Actual 530K
    Prior 512K
    Revised 533K

    Better than expected and last month revised up as well.

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    New Home Sales – Total for Sale (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 425K
    Prior 448K
    Revised n/a

    Sales can quickly be stifled by dwindling actual inventories.

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    New Home Sales MoM (Jun)

    Survey -1.8%
    Actual -0.6%
    Prior -2.5%
    Revised -1.7%

    Better than expected and from an upwardly revised May number.

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    New Home Sales YoY (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -33.2%
    Prior -37.8%
    Revised n/a

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    New Home Sales Median Price (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 230.9
    Prior 227.7
    Revised n/a

    The decline may be about over.

    Median prices are already rising from the lows.

    Watch for a shortage of new homes.

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    New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Jun)

    The three month average has turned higher.

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    New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Jun)

    • New home sales down 0.6% m/m and prices down 2% y/y

    But higher than expected at 530,000, and down from May because May was revised up to 533,000 from 512,000.

    Also, inventories down and prices up, and prices getting very close to being up year over year:

    New home sales fall but stronger than expected

    by Mark Felsenthal

    Sales of newly constructed U.S. single-family homes were stronger than expected in June, falling 0.6 percent to a 530,000 annual pace, a government report showed on Friday, providing a glimmer of hope for the beaten-down housing market.

    Economists polled by Reuters were expecting sales to slow to a 500,000 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate from a previously reported 512,000 pace in May. May’s sales rate was revised up to 533,000, the Commerce Department said.

    The inventory of homes available for sale shrank 5.3 percent to 426,000, the lowest since December 2004. The June sales pace put the supply of homes available for sale at 10 months’ worth.

    The median sales price rose to $230,900 from $227,700 from May, but was down 2 percent from a year earlier, the government said.


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2008-06-25 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.3
Prior -8.8%
Revised -8.7

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 333.4
Prior 360.2
Revised n/a

MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 1212.20
Prior 1378.60
Revised n/a

MBA Mortgage Application TABLE (Jun 20)

Purchase mortgage applications back at the low end of the new range, partially because mortgage bankers have lost market share, but housing remains very slow as well.

Durable Goods Orders (May)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -1.0%

About as expected. Remains on the weak side, but not at recession levels as economy continues to muddle through.

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Durables Ex Transportation (May)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 2.5%
Revised 1.9%

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New Home Sales (May)

Survey 512K
Actual 512K
Prior 526K
Revised 525K

[comments]

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New Home Sales MoM (May)

Survey -2.7%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 3.3%
Revised 4.8%

A touch better than expected from a very low base.

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New Home Sales TABLE NSA (May)

[comments]

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Actual Number of Homes for Sale (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 453.00
Prior 461.00
Revised n/a

Lower than expected and working its way down nicely.

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FOMC Rate Decision (Jun 25)

Survey 2.00%
Actual 2.00%
Prior 2.00%
Revised n/a

They don’t consider inflation a problem yet.


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2008-05-28 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-28 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 352.7
Prior 352.5
Revised n/a

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2008-05-28 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 2013.5
Prior 2210.5
Revised n/a

Both holding their own.

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2008-05-28 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Apr)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-28 Durables Ex Transportation

Durables Ex Transportations (Apr)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 2.5%
Prior 1.5%
Revised 1.7%

Yet another set of ‘better than expected’ releases.


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2008-04-24 US Economic Releases

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  • Durable Goods Orders (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Continuing Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Help Wanted Index (Released 10AM EST)
  • New Home Sales (Released 10AM EST)

From Karim:

  • Initial claims down from 375k (revised from 372k) to 342k
  • Continuing claims down from 2999k (revised from 2984k) to 2934k
  • DGO ex-aircraft and defense unchanged and down -2% and -1% in Jan/Feb
  • Claims have been volatile lately due to seasonals, but if they were to somehow stabilize at these levels, would still be in line with 0 employment growth
  • Q1 business capex component of GDP likely to be negative (has never been a recession where business capex did not also contract)

IFO down from 104.8 to 102.4 and retail component down from -0.9 to -10.0

ECB Member Bonello returns fire to Weber:

On the basis of the data we have at hand and the ECB’s rationale for monetary policy strategy it is very difficult to make an argument for higher interest rates.

2008-04-24 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -1.7%
Revised -0.9%

2008-04-24 Durable Goods Orders YoY

Durable Goods Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

2008-04-24 Durables Ex Transportation

Durables Ex Transportation (Mar)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior -2.6%
Revised -2.1%

2008-04-24 Durable Goods TABLE

Durable Goods TABLE

Not all that bad. Two month total above expectations as Feb revised to a smaller drop.

Not at recession levels, yet.

And fiscal package kicking in soon.

2008-04-24 Initial Jobless Claims since 1998

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 375K
Actual 342K
Prior 372K
Revised 375K

As suspected, from the jobless recovery to the full-employment recession.

Labor numbers soft but not all that bad. No where near recession levels, particularly population adjusted.

2008-04-24 Continuing Claims since 1998

Continuing Claims (Apr 12)

Survey 2990K
Actual 2934K
Prior 2984K
Revised 2999K

A lagging indicator, now following initial claims lower.

2008-04-24 Help Wanted Index

Help Wanted Index (Mar)

Survey 20
Actual 19
Prior 21
Revised n/a

Still going south, but a lagging indicator.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 580K
Actual 526K
Prior 590K
Revised 575K

Sales still heading south.
Might be because production and inventories are down, and also subject to revisions next month.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.7%
Actual -8.5%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -5.3%

2008-04-24 Number of New Home For Sales

Number of New Homes for Sale (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 468K
Prior 473K
Revised n/a

Actual inventories are down substantially, and remaining inventory is probably not highly desirable.

Looking for regional shortages in the spring/summer buying season to drive up prices.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales Median Price

New Home Sales Median Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual $227.6K
Prior $244.2K
Revised n/a

[comments]

2008-04-24 New Home Sales Average Price

New Home Sales Average Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual $292.2K
Prior $302.9K
Revised n/a

[comments]

2008-04-24 New Home Sales TABLE

New Home Sales TABLE

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2008-01-29 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-29 Durable Goods Orders Total

Durable Goods Orders Total (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 226,601
Prior 215,433
Revised n/a

2008-01-29 Durables Ex Transporation Total

Durables Ex Transportation Total (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 155,206
Prior 151,303
Revised n/a

2008-01-29 Durable Goods YoY % Change

Durable Goods YoY % Change

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look much like recession to me. November revised up to where last month’s number might have changed impressions as well.

This also increases the chances that the December employment number gets revised up this Friday, along with a lower unemployment number for January.

From Karim:

The 5.2% rise in DGO is a bit of a mixed bag
–81% rise in aircraft orders (likely to help exports)
–ex-aircraft and defense still up 4.4%;

Yes, that’s what an export economy looks like.

but looks like making up for lost ground as 3mth trend (annualized) falls from -1.2% to -2.8%
–more troubling is shown in chart attached; inventory/shipments ratio threatening multi-year highs (inverted on chart); suggests more downside for industrial production in period ahead

Or it could mean larger shipments being readied.

Unfilled orders up 2.5% month over month; up 18.5% year over year,

Johnson-Redbook and ICSC chain store sales reflect weak January; sales about flat to December.

Yes, that’s what an export economy looks like. Decent employment but weaker domestic real consumption, as more of the output gets shipped abroad rather than getting consumed domestically.

Case-Shiller Index falls from -6.07% y/y to -7.74% y/y. 10 largest metro-areas fall from -6.67% to -8.42% y/y.

Yes, a November number. Real estate in largest areas was still falling back then.

2008-01-29 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Nov)

Survey -7.1%
Actual -7.7%
Prior -6.1%
Revised n/a

2008-01-29 S&P/CS Home Price Index

S&P/CS Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 188.8
Prior 192.9
Revised 192.9

2008-01-29 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Survey 87.0
Actual 87.9
Prior 88.6
Revised 90.6

2008-01-29 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Survey -24
Actual -27
Prior -23
Revised n/a

Still looking weak. But with CNBC turning more positive on the economy, this might turn up soon.

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