Tag Archives: Durable Goods Orders

DGO/Home Sales

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Karim writes:

Durables data was firm.

  • Shipments ex-aircraft and defense (proxy for current qtr business capex) up 0.8%; stands 2.2% above Q4 avg; implication is real capex up 5-6% in q1 after 13.3% gain in q4
  • Orders ex-aircraft and defense (proxy for future capex) up 1.1%

New home sales down 2.2% (prior mth revised to -8.7% from -11.2%); level of new home sales of 308k (annualized) makes new all-time low for 2nd straight month. As a % of the overall economy, hard to see housing go much lower!

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2009-04-24 USER

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Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -0.8%
Prior 3.4%
Revised 2.1%

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.6%
Prior -29.7%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.2
Actual -0.6%
Prior 3.9%
Revised 2.0%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Mar)

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New Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 337K
Actual 356K
Prior 337K
Revised 358K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 308.00
Prior 324.00
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.6%
Prior 4.7%
Revised 8.2%

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New Home Sales YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -30.6%
Prior -37.4%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 201.40
Prior 208.70
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Mar)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Mar)


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2009-03-25 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.2%
Prior 21.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 267.80
Prior 257.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 6363.20
Prior 4497.60
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Feb)

Survey -2.5%
Actual 3.4%
Prior -5.2%
Revised -7.3%

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -28.9%
Prior -27.9%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior -4.0%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Feb)

Survey -2.0%
Actual 3.9%
Prior -2.5%
Revised -5.9%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Feb)

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New Home Sales (Feb)

Survey 300K
Actual 337K
Prior 309K
Revised 322K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 330.00
Prior 340.00
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -2.9%
Actual 4.7%
Prior -10.2%
Revised -13.2%

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New Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -41.1%
Prior -46.1%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 200.90
Prior 206.80
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Feb)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Feb)


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2009-02-26 USER

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Durable Goods Orders (Jan)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -5.2%
Prior -2.6%
Revised -4.6%

 
Karim writes:

  • -5.2% m/m; December revised from -2.6% to -4.6%

  • Ex-aircraft and defense -5.4% m/m and -34.4% last 3mths at an annualized rate

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -26.4%
Prior -20.1%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.3%
Prior -7.5%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Jan)

Survey -2.2%
Actual -2.5%
Prior -3.6%
Revised -5.5%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Jan)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21)

Survey 625K
Actual 667K
Prior 627K
Revised 631K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims up 36k to new cycle high of 667k

  • Continuing claims up another 14k to new cycle high of 5112k

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Continuing Claims (Feb 14)

Survey 5025K
Actual 5112K
Prior 4987K
Revised 4998K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Feb 21)

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New Home Sales (Jan)

Survey 324K
Actual 309K
Prior 331K
Revised 344K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.00
Prior 353.00
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey -21.%
Actual -10.2%
Prior -14.7%
Revised -9.5%

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New Home Sales YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -48.2%
Prior -42.7%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 201.10
Prior 223.20
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Jan)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Jan)


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2009-01-29 USER

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Durable Goods Orders (Dec)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -2.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised -3.7%

 
Karim writes:

The drumbeat continues:

  • Durable good orders down 2.6% in December

  • Ex-aircraft and defense, down 2.8% (and down 32.5% at an annualized rate in Q4)

  • Consensus for Q4 GDP tomorrow is -5.5%; today’s durables data adds downside risk to that estimate and the claims/confidence data indicate that Q1 may well be as weak as Q4.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -19.7%
Prior -19.1%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.9%
Prior -3.9%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Dec)

Survey -2.7%
Actual -3.6%
Prior 1.2%
Revised -1.7%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Dec)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 24)

Survey 575K
Actual 588K
Prior 589K
Revised 585K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 3k to 588k (4wk avg up to 542k from 518k)

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Continuing Claims (Jan 17)

Survey 4620K
Actual 4776K
Prior 4607K
Revised 4617K

 
Karim writes:

  • Continuing claims rise 159k to 4776k, all-time high in the 41yrs of the claims series

  • Despite the decline in energy prices and publicity surrounding stimulus plan, both ABC and Conference Board surveys made new lows in the past week- reflecting that the labor market is now the key driver of sentiment

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 24)

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New Home Sales (Dec)

Survey 397K
Actual 331K
Prior 407K
Revised 388K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 357.00
Prior 397.00
Revised n/a

 
This continues to fall rapidly as new construction rates falls way below sales.

In fact, the lack of new home inventory is probably restricting sales.

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New Home Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -14.7%
Prior -2.9%
Revised -4.4%

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New Home Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -44.8%
Prior -38.3%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 206.50
Prior 219.70
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Dec)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Dec)


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2008-12-24 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 48.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 316.50
Prior 286.10
Revised n/a

 
Picking up with lower rates.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 6758.60
Prior 4156.00
Revised n/a

 
Spiking with lower rates.

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Personal Income MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.1%

 
Lower than expected. Lower interest income continues to bite.

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Personal Income YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 3.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still up but lower interest income biting.

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Personal Income ALLX (Nov)

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Personal Spending (Nov)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

 
Not good, but lower fuel prices helping other sales.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Way down with the big drop in fuel costs.

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PCE Core MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.0%

 
Back in the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -8.4%

 
A little better than expected but still in decline.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.6%
Prior -12.9%
Revised n/a

 
Big drop.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.9%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual 1.2%
Prior -4.4%
Revised -6.8%

 
Bit of a blip up but nothing serious as prior revised lower.

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Durable Goods ALLX (Nov)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 20)

Survey 558K
Actual 586K
Prior 554K
Revised 556K

 
May get a lot worse after the holidays.

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Continuing Claims (Dec 13)

Survey 4410K
Actual 4370K
Prior 4384K
Revised 4387K

 
Likely to move up after the holidays.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 20)


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2008-11-26 USER

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Karim writes:

Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -6.2%

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.60
Prior 248.50
Revised n/a

 
Up a bit from very low levels.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1254.00
Prior 1281.20
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -6.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised -0.2%

 
Big fall.

Karim writes:

  • -6.2% m/m
  • -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.7%
Prior -2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Big fall in a longer term down trend.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.6%
Actual -4.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -2.3%

 
Not good either.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Income MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Income has held up better than expected.

And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.

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Personal Income YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower.

Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.

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Personal Income ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.

The consumer is recharging his batteries.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 4.1%

 
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.

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PCE Core MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Oct)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.3%

 
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Survey 535K
Actual 529K
Prior 542K
Revised 543K

 
Remains very high.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
  • Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)

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Continuing Claims (Nov 15)

Survey 4080K
Actual 3962K
Prior 4012K
Revised 4016K

 
Off the highs but remain very high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)

Survey 57.5
Actual 55.3
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Back through the lows.

Karim writes:

  • New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
  • 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9

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New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 441K
Actual 433K
Prior 464K
Revised 457K

 
Still sliding.

Karim writes:

  • -5% m/m
  • Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.00
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

 
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!

Falling sharply.

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New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -5.0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 0.7%

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New Home Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -40.1%
Prior -34.1%
Revised n/a

 
Might be leveling off at very low levels.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.00
Prior 221.70
Revised n/a

 
Prices falling but not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)


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2008-10-29 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 16.8%
Prior -16.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 303.10
Prior 279.30
Revised n/a

 
A small bounce to what are still very low levels.

But no sign of a collapse

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 1489.40
Prior 1158.80
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 24)

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior -5.5%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

 
A volatile series. Up some but the overall trend is still looking lower.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.1%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior -6.0%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Sep)


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2008-09-25 USER

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -4.5%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 0.8%

 
A very volatile series

Way lower than expected, and prior revised down as well.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.1%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Continuing its downward drift that started about a year ago.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -3.0%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 0.1%

 
It wasn’t all transportation. This is also lower than expected, and the prior month revised lower.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.0%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

 
The jump in defense kept the total from being even worse.

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Durable Goods ALLX (Aug)

 
Consumer goods and defense, the only bright (modest) spots.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 20)

Survey 450K
Actual 493K
Prior 455K
Revised 461K

 
A large spike up. Government estimated 50,000 due to the hurricanes; so, it would have been 430,000. This will take a few weeks to sort out.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 13)

Survey 3510K
Actual 3542K
Prior 3478K
Revised 3479K

 
This just keeps going up towards recession levels. No telling how much extended benefits has added, both now and in the last recession.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 20)

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New Home Sales (Aug)

Survey 510K
Actual 460K
Prior 515K
Revised 520K

 
Lower than expected, and last month revised up as suspected. They’ve been revising previous months up for a while.

There may be a problem with availability of desirable homes, as starts are down by 1 million per year, and inventories are down as well.

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New Home Sales- Total For Sale (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 408.00
Prior 427.00
Revised n/a

 
This continues to fall rapidly and should lead to a shortage in the next few months.

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New Home Sales MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -11.5%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 4.0%

 
Lower than expected and prior month revised up.

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New Home Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -34.5%
Prior -34.7%
Revised n/a

 
Down a lot but signs of bottoming.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 221.90K
Prior 234.90K
Revised n/a

 
Still drifting lower but so far not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Aug)

 
Something happened in the west.

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Aug)

 
Karim writes:

  • Quite weak data that is leading to downward revisions to Q3 and Q4 GDP estimates. Q3 revisions about -½% that I have seen, some GDP estimates now coming in below 1%.

  • The shipments data is more highly correlated to current quarter growth.
  • -3.5% m/m headline, -2.1% ex-transport, -3.6% ex-defense.
  • Orders data more problematic for Q4.
  • -4.5% m/m headline, -3% ex-transport, -5% ex-defense.
  • Fairly broad-based weakness across sectors as well.

  • Capex had been holding up fairly well this year, but now looks as if retrenching; with private consumption likely to be weak and Bernanke signaling an export slowdown, not too many pillars of support left for the economy. Look for more fiscal stimulus and rate cuts.


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2008-08-27 US Economic Releases

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Economy strong enough to use up excess Saudi oil capacity.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.5%
Prior -1.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Aug 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 315.9
Prior 314.0
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Aug 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 1038.0
Prior 1034.5
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Aug 22)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Aug 22)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Aug 22)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Aug 22)

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 1.3%

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior -1.3%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 2.0%
Revised 2.4%

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Durables ex Defense MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.8%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Jul)


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