2008-01-10 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 10, 2008 @ 11:06 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 5)

Survey	340K
Actual	322K
Prior	336K
Revised	337K

Continuing Claims (Dec 29)

Survey	2730K
Actual	2702K
Prior	2761K
Revised	2754K

Looks like employment for December was pretty good.

Wholesale Inventories (Nov)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	0.0%
Revised

November sales look good, and October revised up.

Inventory/sales ratio hits new low:

U.S. Nov wholesale inventories up 0.6 pct

by Lisa Lambert

(Reuters) Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.6 percent in November, but they did not keep pace with sales, which saw the biggest monthly increase in more than two years on rising petroleum prices, the government reported Thursday.

The Commerce Department said sales rose by 2.2 percent in November, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005. That reflected an 8.9 percent boost in petroleum sales, which a Commerce Department official said reflected higher prices. It was also
the biggest rise since September 2005, when a devastating hurricane season drove up the price of oil.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected a 0.4 percent gain in inventories, after a flat reading in October, which was unrevised. The department had a big revision in sales during October, reporting a 1.4 percent rise instead of the prior estimate of 0.7 percent.

In a sign businesses are not building up stockpiles as the economy slows, the inventory-to-sales ratio — a measure of the number months it would take to deplete existing stocks at the current sales pace — fell to a record low of 1.07 months from October’s downwardly revised 1.08 months.

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	0.9%
Prior	3.5%
Revised	n/a

Certainly moderating, but not all that bad.

♥

A blurb from a broker

Posted on January 4, 2008 @ 8:23 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

(email)

>
> An impressive November Factory Orders report offered a respite from the
> recent round of weak economic data.

Yes, and maybe even nudge up Q4 forecasts (forecasting the past).

Also, if you look at the continuing claims graph since 1980, it is very low, especially when considering the growth in the labor force, and the latest rise isn’t yet at all meaningful.

> Another data point likely be viewed as
> an incremental positive by the Fed, was the first increase in Asset-Backed
> Commercial Paper outstanding in 20 weeks.

Yes, and the banks are now actively competing for that business. Markets are ‘functioning’ albeit at different rates than before.

> The ABCP market has been around
> for over 20 years. Between 2005 to 2007 it grew by 80% to $1.2 trillion as
> it became the primary funding tool for SIVs.

Yes. And before that, GDP managed to somehow grow, hitting 6%+ in the late 90s before the surplus took it all down.

There is now very good evidence -not that it was needed- that the financial sector adds little or nothing of value to the ‘real economy’ and instead acts as a massive ‘brain drain’ on the real economy.

> The market enabled SIVs to
> initiate hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged spread trades. The
> SIVs borrowed short in the ABCP market and used the cash to finance
> purchases of mortgage backed securities, CDO’s and other credit instruments.
> Investors have made it clear to the ABCP market that they will no longer
> finance these carry trades. As a result, from August to December. The ABCP
> market shrunk by 37%. One of the concerns, the Fed has expressed has been
> that the legitimate participants in the ABCP market would be cut off from
> financing.

Right, hasn’t happened, and now, as you state, it is going the other way, and cheaper wholesale funding is again becoming available and again taking that lending away from the banks..

> This news could be the first to sign the ABCP market is
> returning to a sense of normalcy, which should be viewed as a minor positive
> and monitored for further improvement.

Agreed, thanks!

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2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 3, 2008 @ 10:04 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-11/6%
Prior	-7.6%
Revised	n/a

Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January.

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-18.7%
Prior	-4.7%
Revised	n/a

Graph looks OK.

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey	33K
Actual	40K
Prior	189K
Revised	173K

A touch better than expected, trending down some, but fed thinks there are fewer people left to hire. This is a real number as ADP reports the actual number of people on its payroll system.

Initial Jobless Claims

Survey	345K
Actual	336K
Prior	349K
Revised	357K

This kind of drop means there is no weakness indicated here.

Continuing Claims (Dec 22)

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey	2675K
Actual	2761K
Prior	2713K
Revised	2715K

Up some, but the long term graph looks fine.

Factory Orders (Nov)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	1.5%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	0.7%

No weakness here.

Total Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey	16.0M
Actual	16.3M
Prior	16.2M
Revised	n/a

Still on the soft side, but no disaster.

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey	12.2M
Actual	12.5M
Prior	12.4M
Revised	n/a

As above.

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2007-12-27 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 27, 2007 @ 6:19 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBAVPCH Index

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 21)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-7.6%
Prior	19.5%
Revised	n/a

Goes down this time every year and bounces back early January.

Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey	2.0%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	-0.4%
Revised	-0.4%

Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Nov)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	-0.7%
Prior	-0.7%
Revised	-0.9%

Still drifting lower over time.

Domestic demand has been gradually softening for about a year and a half, as the lower deficit hiked the financial obligation ratios to levels where the rate of consumer credit expansion peaked.

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 22)

Survey	340K
Actual	349K
Prior	346K
Revised	348K

Continuing Claims (Dec 15)

Survey	2645K
Actual	2713K
Prior	2646K
Revised	2638K

Drifting up very modestly.

Consumer Confidence (Dec)

Survey	86.5
Actual	88.6
Prior	87.3
Revised	87.8

CNBC gloominess peaked?

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2007-12-06 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 6, 2007 @ 10:33 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1)

Survey	335K
Actual	338K
Prior	352K
Revised	353K

Down from the week before, chart still looks like a modest up move has taken place. Still comfortably below the 375-400K level that would signal a slowdown.

Continuing Claims (Nov 24)

Survey	2620K
Actual	2599K
Prior	2665K
Revised	2658K

Also backing off from last week’s mini spike and not a problem for the fed at current levels.

Mortgage Delinquencies (3Q)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5.59%
Prior	5.12%
Revised	n/a

Delinquencies up some, but probably not far from fed expectations.

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

Survey	2.4%
Actual	3.5%
Prior	5.12%
Revised	n/a

These look fine – up a touch and no sign of collapse.

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2007-11-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on November 30, 2007 @ 3:29 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

GCP Annualized (3QP)

Survey	4.8%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	3.9%
Revised	n/a

Keeps coming in above expectations.

Personal Consumption (3QP)

Survey	2.9%
Actual	2.7%
Prior	3.0%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

GDP Price Index (3QP)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.9%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

Core PCE QoQ (3QP)

Survey	1.8%
Actual	1.8%
Prior	1.8%
Revised	n/a

Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24)

Survey	330K
Actual	352K
Prior	330K
Revised	329K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

Continuing Claims (Nov 17)

Survey	2575K
Actual	2665K
Prior	2566K
Revised	2553K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey	750K
Actual	728K
Prior	770K
Revised	716K

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey	-2.6%
Actual	1.7%
Prior	4.8%
Revised	-0.1%

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

Help Wanted Index (Oct)

Survey	23
Actual	23
Prior	24
Revised	n/a

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

House Price Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-0.4%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

Moving lower.
Do you think any of this is below fed expectations as of October 31st?

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