2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

2008-01-03 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -11/6%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January.


2008-01-03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -4.7%
Revised n/a

Graph looks OK.


2008-01-03 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey 33K
Actual 40K
Prior 189K
Revised 173K

A touch better than expected, trending down some, but fed thinks there are fewer people left to hire. This is a real number as ADP reports the actual number of people on its payroll system.


2008-01-03 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims

Survey 345K
Actual 336K
Prior 349K
Revised 357K

This kind of drop means there is no weakness indicated here.


2008-01-03 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 22)

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims from 1980

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey 2675K
Actual 2761K
Prior 2713K
Revised 2715K

Up some, but the long term graph looks fine.


2008-01-03 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.7%

No weakness here.


2008-01-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 16.0M
Actual 16.3M
Prior 16.2M
Revised n/a

Still on the soft side, but no disaster.


2008-01-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 12.2M
Actual 12.5M
Prior 12.4M
Revised n/a

As above.


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2007-12-05 US Economic Releases

 

2007-12-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 25.5%
Prior -4.3%
Revised -5.2%

Mortgage banking purchase index is holding above 400 since April, and up nicely year over year. The ‘multiple application’ story is getting old.


2007-12-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.7%
Prior -8.8%
Revised n/a

Modest improvement- doesn’t look like a recession has started.


2007-12-05 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Nov)

Survey 50K
Actual 189K
Prior 106K
Revised 119K

No weakness here- prelude to Friday’s employment number.


2007-12-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (3QF)

Survey 5.9%
Actual 6.3%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

More real output from the same amount of labor input, further questions the deflator for Q3.


2007-12-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (3QF)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

As above, the q3 deflator looked suspiciously low.

This should adjust with q4 numbers.


2007-12-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Boring, and not worse than Fed forecasts.


2007-12-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov)

Survey 55.0
Actual 54.1
Prior 55.8
Revised n/a

It’s been drifting lower with falling budget deficit, but exports propping up gdp.

Probably not any worse than Fed forecasts.


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