Pretty much as expected. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which is running around 2%:

Highlights

Consumer spending was weak in the first quarter and the first look at the second quarter is no better than moderate. Total sales rose an as-expected 0.3 percent in April which pretty much tells the story of the month. Vehicle sales, despite a decline in previously reported unit sales, did post a rise of 0.1 percent in the month which is very respectable given the oversized comparison with March when sales jumped 2.1 percent. Gasoline sales rose an outsized 0.8 percent on higher prices in the month and when excluding both vehicles and gas, retail sales matched the 0.3 percent showing at the headline level.

Details throughout the report are mixed: furniture, which offers a reading on housing demand, extended recent strength with a 0.8 percent gain but restaurants, and their indication on discretionary spending, fell 0.3 percent but following a sharp gain in February. Apparel sales, which have been mixed, surged 1.4 percent but sales at department stores, which have been very weak, managed only a 0.2 percent gain. Building materials rose 0.4 percent in another positive sign for residential investment while nonstore retailers, the report’s strongest component, posted a solid 0.6 percent gain.

Control group sales, which are another core measure and a direct input into GDP, rose 0.4 percent which, given the weak comparison in the first quarter, does point to an early lift for second-quarter consumer spending. But the lift is not dramatic especially considering this year’s tax cut, which has raised disposable income, and of course the enormous demand in the labor market. Note that today’s report includes upward revisions to March, up another 2 tenths to 0.8 percent, and a 1 tenth upward revision to February which now stands at unchanged. These revisions will help limit the weakness of consumer spending in the second estimate for first-quarter GDP.

The December spike coincided with a spike in credit card balances, as well as the peak in Bitcoin prices. Seems to have leveled off since then?

From very modest growth to nearly no growth and only about half what it was some 10 years ago:

Looks to me like a serious lack of aggregate demand:

Highlights

Despite headline declines, the housing starts and permits report for April is mostly positive. First the negatives: starts fell 3.7 percent in the month to a lower-than-expected 1.287 million annualized rate while permits fell 1.8 percent to an as-expected 1.352 million rate. The decline for both starts and permits reflects give back from multi-units which fell sharply in April after rising sharply in March.

Steady readings for single-family homes are the positives in today’s data. Starts here posted a 0.1 percent increase to an 894,000 rate while single-family permits, which are the best news in the report, rose 0.9 percent to an 859,000 rate. But not all the single-family news is positive as completions fell 4.0 percent in the month to an 820,000 rate for a decline that is not welcome in a housing market starved of supply.

But behind all the volatility in the numbers is a housing sector that continues to climb at a solid rate, reflected in year-on-year change that shows total starts up 10.5 percent and permits up 7.7 percent.

Slowly climbing back to levels historically seen only in recessions, and these numbers are not population adjusted:

No growth here since oil capex collapsed about 2 1/2 years ago;

Back through the 2015 highs, growing at modest rates;

Led by oil, though oil related capital expenditures aren’t back to where they were:

This more general categories have been going mostly sideways since the oil capex collapse:

Looks to me like a serious lack of aggregate demand:

Propped up by autos, as the rest continues weak, and autos aren’t looking so good longer term either:

Highlights

In a slight reversal of expectations, retail sales proved stronger at the headline level, up 0.6 percent in March, than the core readings which did however still post respectable gains at 0.3 percent less autos and gas and 0.4 percent for the control group.

Autos are the big story in March, jumping 2.0 percent and finally shaking off the long lull following the replacement surge of September’s hurricanes. Excluding autos, retail sales managed only a 0.2 percent gain following only 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent gains in the prior two months in results that do not point to much consumer strength.

Department stores are having a very hard time, falling 0.3 percent after February’s 0.9 percent plunge. Clothing stores also posted a big decline in the month, at 0.8 percent, as did building materials at minus 0.6 percent and sporting goods at 1.8 percent. Gasoline proved a bit of a wildcard in this report, falling only 0.3 percent which is less severe than many expected.

But there are positives in the report including a second straight 0.4 percent gain for restaurants and a second straight solid rise, at 0.7 percent, for furniture stores. And nonstore retailers are once again at the top of the data, at a 0.8 percent gain following February’s 0.9 percent jump.

But this report, after two soft showings in January and February, doesn’t show the fundamental acceleration that was expected for March, evident in the year-on-year growth rates for the core readings: down 2 tenths to 3.9 percent ex-gas ex-auto and down 3 tenths for the control group at 3.8 percent. Though service spending may very well bail out the first quarter, consumer spending doesn’t look to be much of a contributor to first-quarter GDP.

Last months small move up in vehicle sales was what caused retail sales to be better than expected:

Inventories are still elevated relative to sales:

Worse than expected and now down for the last three months, not adjusted for inflation. And all in line with the narrative about personal income going flat and the falling savings rate:

Highlights

The big tax cut isn’t being passed to the nation’s retailers. Retail sales once again missed expectations badly, at minus 0.1 percent in February vs Econoday’s consensus for a 0.4 percent gain and a low estimate for a 0.1 percent gain. The job market may be high and confidence near long-term time highs but the consumer is definitely not on a spending spree.

Department stores were especially weak in February, down 0.9 percent with furniture store sales also weak, down 0.8 percent and sales at health & personal care stores down 0.4 percent. What isn’t a surprise is a 4th straight month of decline at vehicle dealers, down a very sharp 0.9 percent in a drop that re-emphasizes the effect of the spike in the hurricane season which pulled sales forward. Sales at gasoline stores are also a negative, down 1.2 percent with food sales down 0.1 percent.

Now the positives and these are led by nonretailers where sales, after a sharp January fall that followed a positive holiday season, jumped a monthly 1 percent. Building materials are also positive, up 1.9 percent that reverses a 1.7 percent decline in January. Restaurants are another positive but only barely at a 0.2 percent monthly gain which follows January’s marginal 0.1 percent improvement.

But there really should be no alarm on the consumer as retail sales in fact remain positive, evident in the total year-on-year rate which is up 1 tenth to a respectable 4.0 percent with the control group up 3 tenths to 4.2 percent. Should spending on services continue to show strength, consumer spending can still post passable first-quarter results.

Still depressed and going nowhere:

Highlights

Amid rising interest rates, purchase applications for home mortgages fell by a seasonally adjusted 6.0 percent in the February 9 week. Unadjusted, the year-on-year gain in the volume of purchase applications fell 4.0 percentage points to 4.0 percent. Applications for refinancing fell just 2.0 percent in the week, putting the refinancing share of mortgage applications up 0.1 percentage points to 46.5 percent. Mortgages rates rose to the highest level since January 2014, with the average interest on 30-year fixed rate conforming mortgages ($453,100 or less) up 8 basis points from the prior week to 4.57 percent.

Higher than expected which elevates expectations of Fed rate hikes:

But the Fed may also be looking at this evidence of weakness:

Worse than expected with prior month revised lower as well, ties in with previous discussion about low personal income growth, with this report now indicating personal savings wasn’t quite so low because spending was that much lower than first reported:

Highlights

Retail sales not only proved very soft in January, but a sharp downward revision to December looks certain to pull down what had been outstanding strength for consumer spending in fourth-quarter GDP. Retail sales fell 0.3 percent in January compared to Econoday’s low estimate for no change. December is revised down 4 tenths to unchanged with November, adding insult to injury, also revised down, 1 tenth lower to what is still an outstanding gain of 0.8 percent.

All three months show declines for the leading component which is motor vehicles, falling a very sharp 1.3 percent in January. The weakness here no doubt is the result of replacement demand following the hurricane season which pulled sales forward. Building materials are also weak, down 2.4 percent and in this case possibly reflecting January’s unusually severe weather. But however bad the weather was it didn’t help nonstore retailers, a component that is dominated by e-commerce and which proved dead flat in January with December’s initial surge of 1.2 percent revised down to a much more moderate looking 0.5 percent.

Clothing sales, which had been very soft, rose 1.2 percent in the month, echoing this morning’s consumer price report where apparel prices posted a sudden jump. Restaurant sales, which had been strong, were unchanged while furniture sales wobbled for a second month, down 0.4 percent.

The downward revision to December turns what had been a solid holiday shopping season into a so-so season. Control group sales, which are a direct input into GDP, did rise a very strong 1.2 percent in November but are now down 0.2 percent for December with January limping in at no change. After today’s report, the consumer sector gets a one-notch downgrade from strong to solid.

Up more than expected this month, but last month revised down, inline with a recent pattern of reporting a better than expected number that subsequently gets revised down to where it no longer looks so good:

The year end blip up, funded by out sized credit card advances, may have reversed:

Highlights

Same store sales were up 2.6 percent year-on-year in the January 13 week, continuing the deceleration seen in the prior two weeks to fall to the smallest year-on-year weekly gain since November 11. Month-to-date sales versus the prior month were down 0.3 percent, the first negative reading in four weeks, while the full month year-on-year gain dropped 0.4 percentage points to 3.0 percent, matching the weakest pace since November 11. The second week of the year extends the weakening in sales metrics seen in the first week by retailers in Redbook’s same-store sample, suggesting a cooling in ex-auto ex-gas retail sales in January following December’s strength.

So you have a Fed policy of maintaining some minimum unemployment rate to meet their price stability mandate, which now means that many people won’t qualify for Medicaid?

Political risk looms over Republicans’ welfare tinkering (Reuters) Republicans are seeking tougher work and job training requirements for those helped by assistance programs. Kentucky on Friday became the first U.S. state to get approval from Washington to impose work requirements on recipients of Medicaid. The approval came a day after the Trump administration said states could move toward putting work or job training conditions on Medicaid.

They are inching their way towards single payer, as once you’ve decided not to let people die in the streets the “process” will get you there, one way or another:

Ryan suggests room for bipartisanship on ObamaCare (The Hill) House Speaker Paul Ryan said Friday there might be an opportunity for a bipartisan deal to shore up ObamaCare’s insurance markets. Ryan expressed optimism that Congress could pass a bill similar to one sponsored by Sens. Susan Collins and Bill Nelson. The bill would provide billions of dollars to states to help establish high-risk pools or reinsurance programs. “I’ve talked to Susan Collins and Democrats about this … It’s basically different ways of saying, let’s all agree a person with a catastrophic illness shouldn’t go bankrupt if they get sick,” Ryan said.