The slowdown in imports could indicate a slowing domestic economy:
Both exports and imports increased in October.
Exports are up 18% compared to October 2020; imports are up 22% compared to October 2020.
Japan not doing so well:
Personal income and savings went up with the fiscal transfers, and now they’re fading:
Looks like at best it’s going sideways:
Bad!!!
The Japanese economy shrank 7.8 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2020, compared with market forecasts of a 7.6 percent decline, and after a 0.6 percent fall in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. This was the third straight quarter of contraction and the steepest on record, amid the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Private consumption (-8.2 percent vs -0.8 percent in Q1), capital expenditure (-1.5 percent vs 1.7 percent), and government spending (-0.3 percent vs flat reading) all declined. In addition, net external demand subtracted 3.0 percentage points off growth, with exports falling the most since Q1 2009 (-18.5 percent vs -5.4 percent) while imports dropped for the third straight quarter (-0.5 percent vs -4.2 percent). On an annualized basis, the economy collapsed 27.8 percent in the June quarter, the deepest on record, compared to consensus of a 27.2 percent drop and after a 2.2 percent decline in the March quarter.
Now turning down as benefits expired:
The mini spike in real estate lending from the drop in rates is already fading:
The Japanese economy shrank 7.1 percent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter of 2019, worse than an initial estimate of a 6.6 percent contraction and following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent growth in the previous three-month period. That was the biggest slump in GDP since the second quarter of 2014 as private consumption dropped 10.6 percent as a sales tax hike in October weighed on spending. Also, business spending declined by 17.3 percent, the most since the first quarter of 2009. Japan GDP Growth Annualized – data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases – was last updated on March of 2020.
Beat down by the tariffs, virus effects soon to come:
Nice move up against the trend. We’ll see if it reverses like the Markit survey has:
Examples of a recent reversals:
Bit of a move down here as the virus slows things down in China:
Still decelerating:
Another move up that may or may not reverse:
Walmart earnings and outlook fall short as holiday season disappoints
This price drop will negatively effect capital expenditures as well as the value of oil being produced, both negatives for GDP:
Lots of surveys turning up a bit on hopes for the trade deal:
And Japan passed a modest positive fiscal adjustment:
Global trade collapse continues:
Looks like more of same- L shaped recovery since the financial crisis:
Still looking weak:
The global slow motion train wreck continues:
Japan:
Core machinery orders in Japan, which exclude those of ships and electrical equipment, declined 6.0 percent from a month earlier in October 2019, following a 2.9 percent fall in September and compared with market expectations of a 0.9 percent increase. It marked the longest period of month-on-month contraction since a similar stretch to January 2009, mainly due to lower demand for fabricated metal products (-44.3 percent), information & communication electronics equipment (-43.7 percent), ship building (-31.9 percent), iron & steel (-21.1 percent), business oriented machinery (-15.2 percent) and general-purpose and production machinery (-10.9 percent).
Mexico Industrial Output Falls the Most in 5 Months
Mexico’s industrial production fell 3 percent from a year earlier in October 2019, following a 1.8 percent decline in the previous month and above market forecasts of a 2.1 percent decrease. manufacturing production dropped 1.2 percent, after rising 0.8 percent in September; and construction output declined further (-9.3 percent compared to -8.3 percent).
May just be from the Thanksgiving holiday and reversed next week:
Deeper into contraction:
German Industrial Output Falls Unexpectedly
Industrial production in Germany dropped by 1.7% mom in October 2019, missing market expectations of a 0.1% growth and following a 0.6% fall in September. This marked the steepest monthly decrease in industrial output since April, as production fell for capital goods (-4.4%), including tools, vehicles and machinery. Year-on-year, industrial output slumped 5.3%, the most in a decade. Manufacturing alone went down 5.7%.
AAR: November Rail Carloads down 7.5% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.4% YoY
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Rail traffic continues to struggle because U.S. manufacturing is soft, trade disputes and the uncertainty they entail are ongoing, and economic growth abroad isn’t what it could be.
…In November 2019, total U.S. rail carloads were down 7.5% and total intermodal originations were down 7.4% from November 2018 — making 10 straight monthly declines for both.
