2008-07-03 US Economic Releases

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)

Survey -60K
Actual -62K
Prior -49K
Revised -62K

Looking soft but not collapsing.

With productivity increases, GDP can remain positive with flat to down job creation.

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Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Survey 5.4%
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Working its way higher, but this is a lagging indicator.

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jun)

Survey -30K
Actual -33K
Prior -26K
Revised -22K

Slowly working its way lower in a multi-year trend.

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

Apparently ‘well-anchored’.

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jun)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

Still moving lower with seemingly along with the labor weakness.

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Average Weekly Hours (Jun)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

This is falling off as well and indicates a good sized loss of labor hours.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 28)

Survey 385K
Actual 404K
Prior 384K
Revised 388K

Working its way higher but still not at recession levels, and the floods might have disorted it some.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 21)

Survey 3125K
Actual 3116K
Prior 3139K
Revised 3135K

Rate of increase seems to be slowing.

Karim writes:

-62k decline in nfp in line with expectations but details on the soft side

  • Net revisions -52k
  • Unemployment rate stays at 5.5%
  • Index of aggregate hours drops again (-0.1%); 3mth annualized rate now -0.9%. If hours fall 1%, that is the equivalent of about a 1.4mm decline in jobs from a labor income perspective: Labor income = jobs x average hourly earnings x total hours worked.
  • Total augmented unemployment rate (another measure of slack that includes those who have dropped out of labor force but indicate they would like to work) rises from 9.7% to 9.9%, a new cycle high.
  • Median duration of unemployment rises from 8.3 weeks to 10.0 weeks.
  • One piece of improvement was in diffusion index rising from 45.6 to 46.9
  • Birth-death model added 177k jobs, 29k in construction (caution that these are nsa whereas payrolls are sa)

Claims rise from 388k to 404k; 4wk avg rises from 379k to 390k.

Continuing claims fall from 3135k to 3116k; 4wk average rises from 3102k to 3110k

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jun)

Survey 51.0
Actual 48.2
Prior 51.7
Revised n/a

Seems to be back near its longer term trend line that was headed lower, and prices keep moving up alarmingly.

Karim writes:

Overall index falls from 51.7 to 48.2 in June.

Activity details also weak and prices paid higher:

  • Prices paid 77 to 84.5
  • Activity 53.6 to 49.9
  • New orders 53.6 to 48.6
  • Employment 48.7 to 43.8 (lowest in 6yr history of series)
  • Export orders 54 to 52


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