As suspected, last month’s print was revised lower and now with this month’s even lower print the spike reported in November has completely reversed and the payroll number is back in sync with ADP and the rapid declines in most other series.
Employment Situation
Highlights
The labor market has softened in several aspects. Payroll jobs increased a mere 126,000 in March after increases of 264,000 in February and 201,000 in January. January and February were revised down a net 69,000. Market expectations for March were for a 247,000 increase.
The unemployment rate held steady at 5.5 percent and matched expectations. The labor force participation rate edged down marginally to 62.7 percent from 62.8 percent in February.
Turning back to the establishment survey, private payrolls increased 129,000 in March after a 264,000 boost the month before. Analysts forecast 240,000. In March, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade, while employment in mining declined.
Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, topping expectations for 0.2 percent. The average workweek slipped to 34.5 hours versus 34.6 in February and coming in below forecasts for 34.6 hours
The latest employment report clearly is soft and will add to arguments by Fed doves to delay rate hikes.
And no ‘structural issues’ here, just an obvious lack of demand:
BLS Jobs Situation Surprisingly Bad in March 2015
By Steven Hansen
The BLS jobs report headlines from the establishment survey was weak and well below expectations. The unadjusted data shows relatively weak jobs growth. The real story this month is the ALL the establishment survey jobs growth for 2015 was re-estimated lower. This is such a soft jobs report that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise their interest rates.
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