As previously discussed, GDP looks to be growing sequentially, and should do fine next year if fiscal policy doesn’t tighten.
But still not so good for people working for a living, pretty good for corporate earnings.
And risks remain- Europe, China, Super Committee, etc. etc.
And look for a relief rally if Europe all agrees the ECB writes the check,
followed by a sell off due to the austerity that accompanies it.
Karim writes:
Data confirms Q4 GDP growth tracking 3.25%.; slight boost to Q1 estimate; more like 2.75% vs 2.5% previously.
RETAIL SALES
- Up 0.5% headline and 0.6% control group
- Iphone 4s definitely helped as electronics sales rise 3.7% for the month, largest gain since 11/09
EMPIRE
- Rises to 6mth high of 0.6 from -8.48 in October; but 0.6 still weak historically.
- Also, new orders and employment component both soften in the month.
PPI
- Pipeline pressures receding as -0.3% headline, -0.4% on consumer goods, -1.1% intermediate stage, and -2.5% crude stage
EVANS AND BULLARD
- Evans advocating 3% inflation target and linking policy guidance to unemployment/inflation objective
- Also acknowledges he is ‘sufficiently outside’ consensus at the Fed
- Bullard rejects linking policy to numerical objectives and states would need to see evidence of deterioration in U.S. economy to support additional easing