Karim writes:

  • More positive signs for the labor market as initial claims fall another 5k to 382k; more importantly, claims are now steadily below 400k (5 of the past 7 weeks)
  • DGO ex-air and defense fall 1.3%; Core shipments rise 0.8%
  • Slight upward revisions to both core orders and shipments for January
  • DGO remains highly volatile, with the machinery component in particular driving the volatility. Machinery orders up 16.3% in December, followed by -12.7% and -4.2% in Jan and Feb.

Nothing in today’s data that would alter the baseline view for the Fed expressed in last week’s FOMC statement (hawkish)