Consumer credit, Miles driven, Income revision

More Q2 weakness: Highlights Consumers credit came in below expectations, up $10.2 B in June as consumers held back from adding to their credit-card debt and even paid off some of it following a spending spree in the previous month. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards and which posted the biggest increase ...Read More

Trade, Employment, ISM, Japan swf

Larger than expected which also means q2 GDP will be revised down some: Highlights The nation’s trade deficit proved a little deeper than expected in June,, at $46.3 billion vs Econoday’s consensus for $45.6 billion. After a run of strength going back to February, exports posted a 0.7 percent decline to $213.8 ...Read More

Motor vehicle sales, Factory orders

Highlights Unit vehicle sales proved surprisingly weak in July, at a 16.8 million annualized rate vs 17.2 million in June. This is the lowest rate since August last year but it will be the comparison with June that will pull down forecasts for July’s retail sales report. Vehicles were a valuable contributor ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Mtg purchase applications, Construction spending, Payrolls, Tesla

A lot worse than expected as sales are clearly going south: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.7 million annual rate in July Read more at Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the July 27 week, posting the third weekly decline in a row, ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Pending home sales

The benchmark revisions were substantial and the data now paints a very different picture: Highlights Easing inflation pressure along with healthy consumer vital signs is the message from the personal income & outlays report for June. Both price indexes, the overall and the closely watched core rate which excludes food and energy, ...Read More

GDP, World trade

So the savings rate puzzle, where consumption was exceeding income, has now been reconciled with large upward revisions in personal income. And looks like the credit expansion that supplied the income and drove the spending was from non-residents. The next monthly consumption and income releases will bring it all up to date: ...Read More

Durable goods, Trade, Inventories, Apartment survey

The tax cuts helped the economy though they were relatively small and largely low multiple, but tariffs are tax increases and work to reduce real consumption if income doesn’t also adjust. Also, there could have been some front running ahead of the dates the tariffs go into effect. This adds volatility to ...Read More

Mtg apps, Home sales, Soy beans, Puerto Rico employment, Iran comments

Housing continues to roll over and is no negative year over year: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 1 percent in the July 20 week, while applications for refinancing increased by 1 percent from the previous week. Unadjusted, purchase applications were 2 percent higher than in the same ...Read More

Retail sales, Home buying index, Auto index, Summit statements

Mixed bag again, as auto sales contributions are volatile in a generally softening auto market. And the Fed estimates the tax cuts and spending increases will add about .4-.5% to GDP this year. Also, the spending numbers are not inflation adjusted, and year over year cpi has been moving higher: Highlights Strong ...Read More

CPI, EM export growth, Corporate debt growth, QE

Still looks to me like the rate increases have offered some support for the economy and also pushed cpi higher? Interest income channels? Forward pricing channels? ;) Corporate debt growth decelerating; ...Read More