Industrial production, China retail sales, Miles driven, Federal interest payments, Budget charts

A weaker than expected print due to auto sales which have been volatile, but charts show it’s still chugging along at a modest pace: Highlights A big drop in autos skewed industrial production lower in May, slipping 0.1 percent and missing what was an already soft consensus by 2 tenths. Manufacturing volumes ...Read More

Jobless claims, Retail sales, Bank lending, Fed comments

Just a reminder (from 2015) as to why claims are this low: This is not population adjusted: We haven’t yet to recover from the last recession, in my opinion due to an ongoing lack of demand: Highlights The FOMC said yesterday that household spending has picked up and indeed it has. Retail ...Read More

Trade, Consumer credit

The trade deficit narrowed but due to a drop in consumer spending on imported cell phones, which doesn’t bode well for retail sales, which are under pressure from the reduced growth of real disposable personal income. And the widening trade gap with the euro area is fundamentally euro friendly even as fears ...Read More

Debt securities and loans, Vehicle sales, Manufacturers orders

Another indication of low aggregate demand this cycle: Continuing to weaken: Recovering from the dip but still has a ways to go: This component had previously leveled off at about today’s level: Actual shipments recovering but still not looking so good: Inventories correcting but remain elevated: ...Read More

Employment, Construction spending

Above expectations and indicative of continuous modest growth. However, I have trouble making it all ‘add up’. More comments below: Highlights Employment growth is strong and it is not entirely without wage pressure. Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in May to just top Econoday’s high estimate while the unemployment rate moves down a ...Read More

Personal income and outlays, Corporate profits, Trade, Bank lending, Corporate debt

Spending was up, but unfortunately due to higher gas prices, which were paid for by further dipping into savings that were already far too low. So looks to me like q2 is off to a very uncertain start after a weak q1: Highlights Income isn’t quite as soft and spending isn’t quite ...Read More

Existing home sales, Durable goods, China debt, State index

More weakness: Highlights Yesterday’s new home sales report showed less strength than expected while today’s existing home sales results are outright disappointing. Sales fell 2.5 percent in April to an annualized rate of 5.460 million which falls below Econoday’s low estimate. The decline in sales came despite a sizable increase in supply ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, New home sales, Architecture billing index, China

Weakness continues: Housing, while growing modestly, remains very depressed historically: Highlights Month after month the new home sales report shows its volatility behind which, however, slight strength is evident. Sales in April came in 15,000 short of Econoday’s consensus, at a 662,000 annualized rate with revisions pulling down the prior two months ...Read More

Retail sales, Mtg apps, Housing starts, Industrial production, Wage growth tracker

Pretty much as expected. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which is running around 2%: Highlights Consumer spending was weak in the first quarter and the first look at the second quarter is no better than moderate. Total sales rose an as-expected 0.3 percent in April which pretty much tells the ...Read More

Las Vegas, Current account and currency

Yen: Euro: ...Read More