GDP forecasts, Bank loans
Economic Releases
Jun 20, 2020
33% is about a 2 trillion drop in income/sales for q2. The fiscal adjustments may be a bit shy of that. More revisions next week: Peaked and decelerating hard:
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Housing starts, Unemployment claims
Economic Releases
Jun 18, 2020
Big drop from historically depressed levels: Still alarmingly high: Leveling off at very high levels:
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Payrolls, Gasoline, Rigs, Recession awareness
Economic Releases
Jun 18, 2020
Private payrolls are reported down by about 23.5 million employees: “While there are numerous theories as to why economists were so far off, one explanation was widely discussed on Friday. The jobless claims data and the ADP private payrolls report did not pick up what analysts call “hidden hiring.” Firms put their
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GDP forecasts, Consumer sentiment, Debt service vs profits, Seattle real estate, Bank loans
Economic Releases
Jun 13, 2020
-40% is about a $2.5 trillion loss for the quarter, which is more than the fiscal adjustments for the same quarter, which means to me a very slow start for q3 unless further fiscal adjustments are made: Not as low as the 2008 recession, as Federal transfers have been supporting consumer buying
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Unemployment claims
Economic Releases
Jun 11, 2020
Over 1.5 million new claims for unemployment comp last week, still an alarming rate of decline. Never even got up to 700,000 in the 2008 recession: Total collecting benefits continues at over 20 million. Never even got to 7 million in the 2008 recession: Not to mention this, bringing the total to
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Optimism index, German trade, Fed Atlanta
Economic Releases
Jun 10, 2020
And global trade had already been collapsing: Revised June 9 but still forecasting down nearly 50%:
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Jobless claims, Layoffs, Trade, Vehicle sales, Miles driven
Economic Releases
Jun 04, 2020
Massive losses piling up, even with gov funding for employers to keep employees on the payroll. And this number doesn’t include those who lost their jobs and aren’t eligible for unemployment comp. Massive layoffs continue even with gov funds to employers to keep employees on the payroll: Tariffs still in place and
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ISM servces, GDP, ISM NY, Oil prices
Economic Releases
Jun 03, 2020
Private payrolls fell by over 2 million after the PPP was in place to keep workers on the payroll. This is a forecast for Friday’s employment release: After a large contraction the rate of contraction naturally slows down, but it’s still contracting: If this turns out to be the case, it’s a
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GDP forecast, Philly Fed, Euro area headlines
Economic Releases
May 28, 2020
Income is what supports and ’causes’ sales. When income falls, sales in the first instance need deficit spending- spending that exceeds income- to grow employment/output from prior levels. The GDP forecasts include income/sales from public deficit spending as well as private sector deficit spending. The risk I see is private sector deficit
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