Category Archives: Uncategorized

GDP, Profits, German exports

Weaker than expected and Q1 forecasts still down, as the mainstream remains in denial that the oil price drop was a large negative for the US economy: GDP Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP forecast: Corporate Profits German exports generally increasing only … Continue reading

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Mortgage purchase apps, Durable goods orders

Still looking stone cold dead to me, with risk of going even lower. Purchase apps up only 3% from a dismal period last year: MBA Mortgage Applications Way below expectations and prior month revised down, causing GDP estimates to be … Continue reading

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Start of PMC challenge in august

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car sales fall again

No surging consumer here either. Third month down… U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.2 million annual rate in February By Bill McBride Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.16 million SAAR in February. That … Continue reading

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eur/usd

Warren, euro continue to go down vs usd. Do you think draghi goal is to reach eur/usd 1:1 ? Good question! No one thinks the ECB is buying dollars so if that’s the case the world is getting short euros … Continue reading

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EU continues to negotiate with Greece

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Empire survey, MS on consumer spending, Housing index, e commerce

All these surveys are now declining: From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey The February 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to expand at a modest pace for New York manufacturers. The headline general business … Continue reading

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Consumer Sentiment

Whoops This isn’t supposed to happen with the lower gas prices: Consumer Sentiment Highlights Consumer sentiment remains very strong but it did move down after spiking in January, to 93.6 for the mid-month February reading vs January’s 98.1 which was … Continue reading

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Dallas Fed

who would have thought?… Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Highlights Texas factory activity was flat in January. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 0.7, indicating output was essentially unchanged from December. Other survey measures … Continue reading

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credit check, oil capex

A zig down here often means a similar increase in bank lending as one substitutes for the other: ;) Steepest Oil-Rig Drop Shows Shale Losing Fight to OPEC

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