Uncategorized Archive

US balance of trade, New home sales, PMI health care premiums, ECB statement, German consumer morale

A bit fewer than expected and prior month revised down bringing it more in line with permits: A nice uptick here, but as per the chart too soon to say the downtrend has reversed. And notice, again, how employment is faltering as has been the case in most of the surveys: Highlights ...Read More

Auto sales forecast, Euro area manufacturing and composite PMI, Redbook retail sales, Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed

Still negative: Should hold up as long as the euro stays relatively weak due to portfolio selling, which has been all but continuous for the last couple of years or so. At some point ‘fundamentals’ including relative prices and the current account surplus ‘drain the swamp’ and take over: Back down again: ...Read More

Apartment market survey, Terni presentation

mosler-presentation-terni-2016-10-21 ...Read More

Presidential poll, Euro area current account, Saudi output, Russian nukes

Clinton Vs. Trump: IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll (IBD/TIPP) The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections (About IBD/TIPP Poll). The latest results for the IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll will be released ...Read More

Housing starts, Mortgate purchase apps, Sales managers index, Garbage carloads, Cass freight index

Starts very weak, but permits up. It’s about permits, so we’ll see if they level off or continue to rise: Highlights Starts are mixed but permits are up in what is a deceptively solid housing starts & permits report. Starts plunged what looks like a shocking 9.0 percent in September, to a ...Read More

CPI, Redbook retail sales, Consumer spending comments, Voter turnout comments

Fed continues to fail to achieve it’s 2% target: No sign here of housing growth picking up from where it’s been: Highlights The new home sector picked up steam in the third quarter and looks to end the second half with strength. The housing market index held on to the bulk of ...Read More

NY state mfg survey, Tsy budget, Sea container counts

Well below expectations and further contraction: Highlights The first indication on October’s factory conditions is negative. The Empire State index is below zero for a third month in a row, at minus 6.80 vs similar readings in September and August. And the details are almost entirely negative with new orders at minus ...Read More

Retail sales, Atlanta Fed, Consumer sentiment, Business inventories, Unemployment claims, Freight transportation services

All numbers as expected. Notice the use of the word ‘solid’ for all the reports? And no one talking about year over year, which eliminates much of the seasonal factors and month to month volatility. Nor do they mention that these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which pushes the year over ...Read More

JOLTS, Mall closings

So does the fed somehow see this as ‘improvement’ and ‘solid’? More likely to me that the Fed gets criticized for waiting too long to cut. Not that it would matter, of course… Highlights In downbeat indications on the labor market, job openings fell a sharp 7.3 percent in August to 5.443 ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Small business indicator, Payouts and cash flow

Another bad one: It’s that other problems have become more important for these small businesses as conditions continue to deteriorate: ...Read More