Uncategorized Archive

Mtg purchase apps, House prices, Existing home sales

Bad news for housing today- mtg purchase apps at the lows of the year, prices moderate, and existing home sales weak, so, as previously discussed, not looking like housing will be contributing to growth this year: ...Read More

Euro consumer confidence, Military accounting, ECB thought…

The beatings will continue until morale improves… The Collapse of Rome: Washington’s $6.5 trillion Black Hole The Defense Finance and Accounting Service, the agency that provides finance and accounting services for the Pentagon’s civilian and military members, has just revealed that it cannot provide adequate documentation for $6.5 trillion worth of “adjustments” ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, PMI, Richmond Fed, New home sales

Still extremely depressed: Down and well below expectations: Highlights Weakness in orders and employment were unfortunate themes of last week’s Empire State and Philly Fed reports and likewise headline the manufacturing PMI report. The PMI, which is based on a nationwide sample of manufacturers, slowed by 8 tenths in the August flash ...Read More

MMT in the news, Chicago Fed, Dividends

Stephanie Kelton #1, Pavlina Tcherneva #4! http://theweek.com/articles/643874/hillary-clintons-economic-dream-team Up a bit for the month, but the 3 month moving average remains negative: ...Read More

Bank loans, Japan savings, Comments on the economy

Accelerated with the shale boom, still decelerating with the shale bust: Problem is incentives to not spend income, as below, reduce sales, output, and employment. That is, they’ve got it backwards if the goal is increased GDP etc. Japan mulls longer-term tax break for savers Aug 18 (Nikkei) — The Japanese government ...Read More

Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed business survey, Japan trade

Still looks to me like this is perhaps the most misunderstood statistic, as analysts believe it is signaling strength in the labor markets. Instead I’m suggesting claims are extraordinarily low because the unemployment benefits have become much harder to get: Even with a much higher population and labor force, and with a ...Read More

Mortgage purchase applications, Stock buybacks

The chart shows both how depressed the mortgage market is historically as well as how it’s been deteriorating over the last several months: And lots of headlines like this popping up: Wednesday, August 17, 2016 Sacramento Housing in July: Sales down 7%, Active Inventory down 10% YoY Las Vegas Real Estate in ...Read More

CPI, Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Industrial production, Euro area trade balance

Lots of nuances but still tending to keep the Fed on hold: Highlights The headlines for the consumer price report look very soft but there are important offsetting pressures. The CPI came in unchanged in July, pulled back by a 1.6 percent monthly decline in energy prices and other weakness including flat ...Read More

Empire manufacturing index, Housing market index, Hotel occupancy

Just another bit of bad news: Highlights The New York region’s manufacturing sector remains flat based on the Empire State index which came in slightly below zero at minus 4.21 in August vs plus 0.55 in July. New orders are especially flat, at plus 1.04 vs July’s minus 1.82, with unfilled orders ...Read More

Restaurant sales, Bank loans

Still decelerating ever since the collapse in oil capex: ...Read More