Uncategorized Archive

ADP, vehicle sales, mtg purchase apps, durable goods

Not good. Analysts/politicians/voters expected more gains as Federal benefits expired: Not good: Not good: Typical bounce after the covid dip that followed the tariff decline, but so far only back to prior levels, and less when adjusted for inflation: ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, housing starts and permits, Saudi pricing vs benchmarks, oil inventories

Covid dip, recovery, and now a decline: Covid dip, recovery, and now sideways at levels of some 25 years ago when there were a lot fewer people: Through June, Saudis caused the big dip and recovery, then attempted to stabilize. The most recent Reuters report suggested price increases vs benchmarks, which is ...Read More

Oil drilling, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, private payrolls

With oil prices working their way higher, so is US oil drilling: Looks like they are falling back to ‘trend’: Still lots of slack: So much for the notion that businesses can’t find employees? Still lots of slack: ...Read More

Employment by wage level, claims, durable goods, pending home sales, steel prices

Claims continue to drift lower but are still about double what they were pre covid: Continued claims are also about double pre covid levels: Fell back some and still below pre covid highs. This chart is not adjusted for inflation: Same pattern of recent weakness: Pending home sales in the US surged ...Read More

JOLTS, Fed lending survey, Tariff comment

Still rolling over: ...Read More

Existing home sales, UK, Euro area budget and exports

Rolling over: Fiscal this tight means they are entirely dependent on exports for growth, and exports have been collapsing with US tariff policy: From the ECB: “Currently extra-euro area imports and exports of goods and services amount to around half of euro area GDP.” ...Read More

PMI, Existing home sales, Permits, Homebuying index, Fed book, China car sales, Federal budget

Highlights Amid a backdrop of rising inflation pressures, sharp slowing in the services PMI sample pulled down September’s composite flash and masks a strong showing for manufacturing. The PMI composite fell to 53.4 which is well below Econoday’s consensus for 55.1 and also below the low estimate for 53.8. Services fell to ...Read More

Existing home sales, Durable goods, China debt, State index

More weakness: Highlights Yesterday’s new home sales report showed less strength than expected while today’s existing home sales results are outright disappointing. Sales fell 2.5 percent in April to an annualized rate of 5.460 million which falls below Econoday’s low estimate. The decline in sales came despite a sizable increase in supply ...Read More

Architectural index, Corporate leverage, Saudi oil pricing

Muddling through at depressed levels: Saudis set price. If they decide to hike as below, it will happen: OPEC’s new price hawk Saudi Arabia seeks oil as high as $100 Apr 18 (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy to see crude rise to $80 or even $100 a ...Read More

Construction spending, Private credit growth, Turkey

Worse than expected, weak, and decelerating: Highlights Construction spending has been soft, inching only 0.1 percent higher in February after posting no change in January but there are definitely signs of strength in the details. The most important gains are being posted for new single-family homes, up 0.9 percent for a second ...Read More