Category Archives: Uncategorized

existing home sales, Chicago Fed

Bad. And prices down again. As previously discussed, with mtg purchase apps down and cash buyers down it’s hard to see how sales can rise… Existing Home Sales Highlights Existing home sales had been showing some life but not in … Continue reading

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ECRI continues to decline forecasting recession

This index signaled a recession in 2012 which didn’t happen so it’s been discredited. This time the deficit is a lot lower telling me it’s a lot more likely to happen.

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Offsetting the demand leakages

As previously discussed the economy is continually subject to chronic ‘unspent income’, also known as ‘demand leakages’. Many are tax advantaged, such as pension fund and retirement contributions, insurance reserves, and other corporate reserves. Some are political, such as foreign … Continue reading

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Early Signs Of A Slowdown In US Oil Fields

Early Signs Of A Slowdown In US Oil Fields Are Emerging.¬†After leading the US economic recovery out of recession, some of the nation’s top oil states are showing early signs of a slowdown as a result of the plunge in … Continue reading

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household net worth

This just came out. Net worth is largely a function of prices of stocks and houses:

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Fed’s mysterious labor market index lower

Seems no one knows quite what it is… ;) Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index showed softening labor market conditions in November. The index pulls together 19 different labor market indicators. The November index posted … Continue reading

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Putin’s folly

So seems, fortunately, like most all of today’s elite, he’s down a bit on horsepower…

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Saudi crude output, Crude price cuts and deflation

Saudis post prices for refiners, then let them buy all they want at those prices. The chart shows the ‘residual demand’ for crude oil has been reasonably steady, indicating that the price did not move due to any kind of … Continue reading

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labor force discussion

Note the labor force grew continuously then hit a brick wall with the collapse in aggregate demand in 2008 and has yet to resume it’s prior rate of growth. This has all been attributed to ‘demographics’ by the mainstream: This … Continue reading

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Ecri

Because the ECRI forecast a recession a few years ago during a spate of weakness it’s being ignored this time. The difference is, as previously discussed, last time the deficit was running around 9% of GDP, while this time it’s … Continue reading

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