Uncategorized Archive

PMI’s, New Home Sales, State Coincident Index, Corporate Profits

Trumped up expectations continue to revert: Highlights The economy is solid, at least the service sector, but on the whole is losing momentum, based on Markit’s flash data for June. The composite PMI slowed to 53.0 vs Econoday’s consensus for 53.8 with services also at 53.0 and manufacturing at 52.1, both short ...Read More

Existing home sales, oil, credit

Going nowhere, and with mortgage lending decelerating not much hope this will add to growth vs last year: Highlights Housing has been sliding which adds importance to May’s very solid 1.1 percent rebound in existing home sales to a higher-than-expected 5.620 million annualized rate. Today’s report is mostly solid throughout and includes ...Read More

Credit check

More problematic by the week. Note the absolute level of c and I loans has been flat to negative since October: Annual rate of growth remains sub 2%: This is consistent with the weakening housing releases: This is consistent with weakening consumer spending: This is consistent with weakening vehicle sales: Corporate bonds ...Read More

Housing starts, consumer sentiment, credit growth article

Down and prior month revised down and permits way down as well. All in line with the previously discussed deceleration in bank real estate lending that began just after the elections in November: Highlights The bad economic news keeps building, this time in the housing sector. Housing starts fell an unexpected 5.5 ...Read More

Fed surveys, Industrial production, Housing market index, Fed’s gdp forecasts

These spiked up with the Presidential election and are only slowly coming back down: Muddling through at just over a 2% annual rate, but q2 looking weaker than q1: Highlights Forget about all the strength in the low sample-sized regional reports. Government data are not pointing to strength at all as manufacturing ...Read More

State Taxes and Spending

States tend to be pro cyclical. As tax collections slow, so does spending: ...Read More

Retail sales, CPI, business inventories

Highlights Consumer spending was unusually weak in the first quarter and doesn’t look to be improving this quarter. Retail sales fell 0.3 percent in May vs Econoday’s consensus for a 0.1 percent gain. Weakness riddles the report including a 1.0 percent drop for department stores, a 0.2 percent decline for autos, and ...Read More

NFIB small business index, household spending expectations, restaurant performance index, Trump news

Trumped up expectations coming off only slowly. Actual business conditions have not yet responded: Not much optimism here: Trumped up expectations reversed more quickly here: Indicates active selling of US equities and buying of euro equities. This could be part of the process of portfolio managers selling $US to buy euro, reversing ...Read More

Credit check, Fed comment

The collapse continues. With total bank credit just over $12.5 trillion, it’s about $500 billion less than it would have been had last year’s loan growth continued. If this lower rate of loan growth continues, and isn’t replaced by some other channel that facilitates agents spending more than their incomes, the implication ...Read More

Business Inventories and Sales, Capex, Consumer Credit

Inventory to sales ratio coming down but remains elevated: Capital expenditures have come back some since the shale bust, but remain depressed: The year over year deceleration continues as also reflected in consumer spending: ...Read More