Uncategorized Archive
Architectural index, Corporate leverage, Saudi oil pricing
Economic Releases, Uncategorized
Apr 19, 2018
Muddling through at depressed levels: Saudis set price. If they decide to hike as below, it will happen: OPEC’s new price hawk Saudi Arabia seeks oil as high as $100 Apr 18 (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy to see crude rise to $80 or even $100 a
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Construction spending, Private credit growth, Turkey
Uncategorized
Apr 03, 2018
Worse than expected, weak, and decelerating: Highlights Construction spending has been soft, inching only 0.1 percent higher in February after posting no change in January but there are definitely signs of strength in the details. The most important gains are being posted for new single-family homes, up 0.9 percent for a second
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Trade, Durable goods orders, Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed survey, Atlanta Fed nowcast
Uncategorized
Feb 27, 2018
More signs of a slowdown as exports fall, which means less gdp, and consumer imports down, meaning personal spending was lower than expected, as discussed might be the case previously due to lower personal income growth: Highlights Exports came back sharply in January to feed an oversized $74.4 billion goods deficit in
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New home sales, Core inflation chart, Trump testimony
Uncategorized
Feb 26, 2018
Large drop from already historically depressed levels reverses year end spike, and inline with depressed mortgage applications: Highlights Sales of new homes slowed but not all the data in January’s new home sales report are negative. New home sales came in at a much lower-than-expected 593,000 annualized rate in January though, in
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Mtg apps, Jolts, Trade
Uncategorized
Feb 07, 2018
Still going nowhere: Highlights The volume of purchase applications for home mortgages remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in the February 2 week, while refinancing applications rose 1.0 percent from the previous week despite the headwind of rising interest rates. Unadjusted, purchase applications increased 7 percent from the previous week, though
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Vehicle sales, Construction spending, GDP comments, Comments on tax cuts, Comments on fed policy
Uncategorized
Feb 02, 2018
Even lower than expected as weakness continues: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 17.1 million annual rate in January By Bill McBride Feb 1, (calculated Risk) — Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 17.1 million SAAR in January. That is down 1.2% from January 2017,
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ADP, Light vehicle sales, Wolf quote
Economic Releases, Uncategorized
Jan 04, 2018
This is ADP’s forecast of tomorrow’s employment number. We’ll see tomorrow how well accurate they were: A bit higher than expected but down for 2017 vs 2016 (negative growth): Highlights Unit vehicle sales proved solid in December, at a 17.9 million annualized rate vs 17.5 million in November. Outside of October and
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Redbook same store sales, Consumer confidence, Pending home sales
Uncategorized
Dec 27, 2017
Same store sales doing a lot better than last year: Confidence remains high: Housing, however, still seems to be going nowhere: Highlights The pending home sales index has been flat and has not been in line with the strength of final sales of existing homes. This may limit the impact of today’s
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ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Capital spending report, Oil prices
Economic Releases, Uncategorized
Dec 06, 2017
Winding down from post hurricane levels, however keep in mind this is a forecast of Friday’s number, not report of actual private payrolls: Highlights A pre-hurricane total of 190,000 is ADP’s call for November private payroll growth which would follow a hurricane-related upswing of 252,000 in October and 15,000 downswing in September.
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Factory orders, Cash bonuses, Oil prices
Economic Releases, Uncategorized
Dec 04, 2017
As the chart shows, year over year growth has gone to near 0 since the election, and the hurricane replacement effect has since dissipated: Highlights A big upward revision to core capital goods highlights today’s factory orders report which closes the book on what was a mixed October for manufacturing. The month’s
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