fyi, this is only for containers:

Stats from the high seas: Stormy weather ahead

By Allen Wastler

And 2 fewer shopping days…

Holiday Sales Sag Despite Blitz of Deals

(WSJ) — Estimated total spending over Thanksgiving weekend fell to $57.4 billion, down 2.7% from a year ago, according to the National Retail Federation. It said it still expects total holiday sales through year-end to rise by 3.9% from a year ago. The retail trade group said the number of people who went shopping over the four-day weekend that kicked off with Thanksgiving rose slightly to 141 million, up from 139 million last year. Store traffic on Black Friday rose just 3.4% to 92 million shoppers. Preliminary results from ShopperTrak suggested that sales on Thursday and Friday combined rose 2.3% from a year earlier to $12.3 billion. The firm has forecast that this holiday-shopping season will be the worst since 2009, with retail sales in November and December rising by 2.4% from a year earlier, less than last year’s 3% increase and below gains of around 4% in 2011 and 2010.

Go rust belt!
Maybe I’ll finally get a good price for the condos I bought in the early 80′s when I lived there…

Chicago PMI

Highlights
Monthly growth in composite activity in Chicago remains exceptionally strong, at 63.0 for this month’s reading vs an even stronger 65.9 in October. Strength is centered where it should be, in new orders which are at a robust 68.8. The prior reading, at 74.3, was a 9 year high. Production slowed in the month but remains very strong at 64.3 vs 71.1.

Employment is a special standout in today’s report, up 3.2 points to 60.9 which is the highest reading in more than 2 years. Inventories, at 61.1, show a sudden build as Chicago businesses prepare to fill orders. Backlog orders are growing strongly, deliveries are slowing, and price inputs are rising — all consistent with strong activity.

This report, which covers all areas of the Chicago economy, points to another month of solid growth for the coming ISM reports on manufacturing and non-manufacturing. The Dow is moving to opening highs following today’s report.

Consumer Sentiment

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 72.0 for the early November reading versus 73.2 for final October and versus 75.2 in the early October reading. The latest result was the 7th straight dip going through both early and final readings back to final July. The erosion continues to be centered in expectations which were at 62.3, down steadily from July’s peak at 76.5. Current conditions have also been coming down but less so, to 87.2 in the preliminary November reading versus a peak of 99.7 in early July.

Just noticed this. The question is whether it was proactive/desired and ongoing or one time/forced due to sequester and FICA hike income reductions.

“Household debt jumped US$127 billion in the third quarter, the biggest increase since the first quarter of 2008. The rise was across the board as Americans went into greater debt to buy everything from houses to cars to schooling. Household debt is now growing faster than both gross domestic product and disposable income, returning to the pattern that drove both economic growth and serial bubbles in the past decade.”

(Thanks Edward Harrison)

Thanks JC!

John Carney: What I Read

I’ll open my email to see what my colleagues at CNBC have been emailing me about, what sources have been emailing me. I’ll read through what I consider the big macro economics blogs, like Pragmatic Capitalism, or Mosler Economics, The Money Illusion, and occasionally Paul Krugman, to see what they’re talking about.

I know, prices paid are up which is the most reliable indicator of a strong economy…
And higher inventory is the best indicator of future sales and deliveries…
And it’s better than the May numbers…
;)

More seriously, the attached graph doesn’t look as bad as the breakdown.

Corporate Results Expose Lack of Confidence

November 18 (WSJ) — Though corporate profits were higher overall, companies slashed their spending on factories, equipment and other performance-enhancing investments by 16% from year-earlier levels, according to an analysis by REL Consultancy for The Wall Street Journal. Almost 90% of the companies that have given financial forecasts for the final quarter of the year have prompted Wall Street analysts to lower their numbers. Only a dozen companies have painted rosier pictures, according to data tracker FactSet. With more than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having posted results for the quarter, blended earnings were up 3.5% from a year earlier, and profit remained in record territory, according to FactSet. Profit margins, at 9.6%, were near records, thanks to cost cutting, automation and lower commodity prices. But revenue growth was a tepid 2.9% from a year earlier.

Thanks!

And I’m sure Barry remembers who was on the other side of that trade!
;)

2010 Reminder: QE = Currency Debasement and Inflation

By Barry Ritholtz

November 15 — One of my biggest complaints about the media is the lack of accountability. People say things on TV in print an on radio, and then . . . Poof! No consequences. They influence public perception of issues, affect policy debates, drive legislation.

This is a perfect example of a stern warning of currency debasement and inflation due to QE. Let me point out this was made 3 years ago today hence, it has been terribly wrong.

I wont give you advice but I keep track of who is consistently wrong, whose histrionic forecasts are both silly and wrong. Their future comments are valued accordingly.

e21 Team | 11/15/2010

To: Chairman Ben Bernanke
Federal Reserve
Washington, DC

Dear Mr. Chairman:

We believe the Federal Reserves large-scale asset purchase plan (so-called quantitative easing) should be reconsidered and discontinued. We do not believe such a plan is necessary or advisable under current circumstances. The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Feds objective of promoting employment.

We subscribe to your statement in The Washington Post on November 4 that the Federal Reserve cannot solve all the economys problems on its own. In this case, we think improvements in tax, spending and regulatory policies must take precedence in a national growth program, not further monetary stimulus.

We disagree with the view that inflation needs to be pushed higher, and worry that another round of asset purchases, with interest rates still near zero over a year into the recovery, will distort financial markets and greatly complicate future Fed efforts to normalize monetary policy.

The Feds purchase program has also met broad opposition from other central banks and we share their concerns that quantitative easing by the Fed is neither warranted nor helpful in addressing either U.S. or global economic problems.

Respectfully,

Cliff Asness
AQR Capital

Michael J. Boskin
Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Former Chairman, Presidents Council of Economic Advisors

Richard X. Bove
Rochdale Securities

Charles W. Calomiris
Columbia University Graduate School of Business

Jim Chanos
Kynikos Associates

John F. Cogan
Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Former Associate Director, U.S. Office of Management and Budget

Niall Ferguson
Harvard University
Author, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World

Nicole Gelinas
Manhattan Institute & e21
Author, After the Fall: Saving Capitalism from Wall Streetand Washington

James Grant
Grants Interest Rate Observer

Kevin A. Hassett
American Enterprise Institute
Former Senior Economist, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Roger Hertog
Hertog Foundation

Gregory Hess
Claremont McKenna College

Douglas Holtz-Eakin
Former Director, Congressional Budget Office

Seth Klarman
Baupost Group

William Kristol
Editor, The Weekly Standard

David Malpass
GrowPac, Encima Global
Former Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary

Ronald I. McKinnon
Stanford University

Joshua Rosner
Graham Fisher & Co., Inc.

Dan Senor
Council on Foreign Relations
Co-Author, Start-Up Nation: The Story of Israels Economic Miracle

Amity Shlaes
Council on Foreign Relations
Author, The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression

Paul E. Singer
Elliott Management Corporation

John B. Taylor
Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Former Undersecretary of Treasury for International Affairs

Peter J. Wallison
American Enterprise Institute
Former Treasury and White House Counsel

Geoffrey Wood
Cass Business School at City University London

(Institutional Affiliations are for Information Only)

First Nov regional.

Stocks all bulled up on Yellen rates low for longer thing which of course just stepping on the brake harder ;)

IP cap util also down a tad as well. Weak yen can’t be helping US exports any as yesterday’s trade data hinted.

Claims as high as they are and 1.9 productivity growth could mean softer jobs ahead.

Mtg prch apps continue down yoy.

Good thing gas is down!

NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Activity declines in November

Note the comments on the deflationary bias from Japan towards the end.

Soft NY manufacturing, export data fan new US recovery fears

This supported Q3 GDP but will need to grow same and more to keep 2% growth going to replace falling government deficit etc.

NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q3, Delinquency Rates Improve

By Bill McBride

Consumer Credit

Real PCE Y/Y:

PCE per capita:

Year over year growth decelerating:

Motor Vehicle Sales

Yes, but the output gap continues to widen until GDP growth exceeds productivity gains until then it’s the old ‘good for stocks, bad for people’ thing

Spain emerges from 2-year recession

By Holly Ellyatt

October 29 (Bloomberg) — Spain’s economy emerged from a two-year recession in the third quarter, according to preliminary data released on Wednesday.

Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1 percent in the third quarter, the data released by the country’s statistics agency showed, in line with forecasts by analysts polled by Reuters.

FDI is a function of employment. Note how high it was when unemployment was lowest. It’s about being able to make money here and not that we actually need fdi for anything, as we can instead relax fiscal

Barack Obama mounts big push to bolster FDI in US

By James Politi

October 27 (FT) — President Barack Obama wants to attract more foreign investment in the US

President Barack Obama and his senior cabinet officials are mounting a big push to bolster foreign investment in the US – amid evidence that America is falling behind other countries in the race for global capital.

The move by Mr Obama to pitch America as open for business is more aggressive than usual from the White House, reflecting a growing realisation in Washington that the case for investing in the world’s biggest economy is no longer self-evident.

In 2000, the US held 37 per cent of the worldwide inward stock of foreign investment but by 2012, that share had dwindled to just 17 per cent. The US attracted $166bn in foreign direct investment in 2012, a 28 per cent decline compared with 2011 and slightly below 2010 levels.

This year’s performance could be even weaker, since in the first six months of 2013, the US brought in $66bn in foreign investment, well behind the $84bn of the first half of 2012.

The FDI push comes after this month’s fiscal crisis – involving a 16 day government shutdown and a brush with debt default – that has raised eyebrows around the world about the US ability to manage its economy and caused nervousness in global markets.

Mr Obama and senior figures in his administration will ask foreign investors to shrug off the country’s political paralysis and weak economic recovery this week, when they speak at a conference in Washington, the first of its kind by the commerce department, uniting foreign investors with US economic development agencies and state and local officials.

Jack Lew, the Treasury secretary, John Kerry, the secretary of state, Mike Froman, the US trade representative, and Penny Pritzker, the commerce secretary hosting the event, are poised to speak at the event on Thursday and Friday.

“On the heels of the manufactured crises in Washington, it’s time for folks to come together and focus on doing everything we can to spur growth and create new high-quality jobs,” the White House said on Friday.

The US federal government has generally shied away from any big initiatives to promote foreign investment, leaving that task to states competing with each other for business.

Indeed, the high-profile effort by the Obama administration to lay out a welcome mat for foreign capital marks a reversal after years when Washington took for granted that any investors or companies seeking a global presence could not avoid putting money into the US.

But that reality has changed, with the growth of emerging markets from China to India to Brazil, which has dramatically heightened the competition.

Foreign investment inflows have fallen across many of the countries in the OECD, the Paris based group that aims to promote sustainable growth, but in the US that drop has been more pronounced than the average of advanced economies.

“The administration is focusing on FDI as an economic priority because the US has been losing ground,” says Nancy McLernon, president of the Organization for International Investment, which represents US subsidiaries of foreign companies.

The hard case to make is that the US political act is in order. The way that the US has handled things – on fiscal policy and, frankly, monetary policy – has not exactly been confidence-inspiring – Clay Lowery, Former senior US Treasury official

“I think there is a positive political environment to encourage foreign investment of the likes I have not seen over the past two decades”, she adds

The argument for investing in the US has traditionally been that it enjoys a huge and wealthy consumer market, large and liquid capital markets, and a predictable legal system. The domestic energy boom, driven by shale gas, has added to the country’s attractions.

But otherwise, the country’s competitiveness appears to have taken steps backwards. Its corporate tax system remains a morass, with a top rate of 35 per cent that can be scary to prospective investors, even if they might end up paying less by taking advantage of tax breaks.

The country’s infrastructure is in desperate need of retooling and there are growing fears about the education system’s capacity to develop a well-trained workforce. Moreover, political dysfunction in Washington, laid bare by the 16-day government shutdown and close brush with default , have damaged the case for investment in the US.

“The hard case to make is that the US political act is in order. The way that the US has handled things – on fiscal policy and, frankly, monetary policy – has not exactly been confidence-inspiring,” says Clay Lowery, vice-president at Rock Creek Global Advisers, and a senior US Treasury official under George W Bush.

“If you’re an overseas investor, one of the best things about the US was you always knew what the rules of the road are and we have taken away some of that policy stability,” he says.

Moreover, the country’s desire for foreign investors has been called into question after severe political backlashes to high-profile foreign acquisitions, especially from China and the Middle East.

Typically, foreign investment into America has come mostly from European countries, whose sluggish economies have led to weaker flows into the US. This means another objective for the US is to diversify its sources of foreign investment and attract more from emerging markets.

While of limited value, this particular indicator not doing so well.

Weekly Redbook Y/Y: