Uncategorized Archive

Wholesale inventories, Small business index, Redbook retail sales

And another bad one as sales are falling just as fast as inventories: Wholesale Trade Highlights Wholesale inventories fell an as-expected 0.1 percent in December with November revised 1 tenth lower to minus 0.4 percent. Wholesalers have been liquidating inventories as sales have been falling, down 0.3 percent in the latest month ...Read More

Saudi March pricing, Consumer credit

Looks to me like some a bit higher but some a bit lower as well, which tells me the ongoing policy of ‘excess’ discounts remains in place: Nothing here to indicate spending this year will be any better than last year: This is largely student loans: ...Read More

Productivity, Factory orders,Truck orders

As previously discussed, the numbers are showing that business is hiring more than output is increasing, which doesn’t seem to make sense to me. That is, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this reconciled by a drop in hiring, or a downward revision to employment in general. Productivity and Costs Highlights Flat ...Read More

Car sales, Redbook retail sales, Bank loans

This is being spun as a positive, when all I see is a chart showing the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales peaked several months ago and is going down: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.46 million annual rate in January Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at ...Read More

Bank loans

When the growth rate was even modestly increasing it made the news. Now that it’s decelerating not a word… ...Read More

Claims, Philly Fed

Possible bottom and now moving higher: This month’s negative reading doesn’t look so bad because the revised last month’s down so much… ;) Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Highlights The factory sector continues to slow this month though, in good news, the rate of contraction is flattening out. The Philly Fed’s general ...Read More

Weather comment, oil capex reductions, NFIB small business index

This time the warm weather is cited for the weakness as utility spending fell. Yes, capitalism is about sales, and unspent income reduces sales, unless other agents spend more than their income, etc. etc. And with the private sector in general necessarily pro cyclical, unspent income stories beg fiscal adjustments, which at ...Read More

EU growth, NY Fed consumer survey

A bit of growth in the EU supported by the low euro from the CB euro selling and consequent trade/current account surplus. However, without ECB euro selling the fundamentals will inevitably firm the euro until that growth component ceases. But meanwhile, watch for signs of ECB hawkishness: Ever so slowly, the euro ...Read More

Saudi production

The Saudis post prices and let their clients buy all they want at the posted prices. So their policy has been to discount the price of their oil vs benchmarks until their sales increase to meet their production capacity, which is reportedly 12 million bpd. That means the price goes low enough ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Jobless claims

Way below consensus and way bad: Chicago PMI The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November There was also ongoing weakness in New Orders, which contracted at a faster pace, to the lowest level since May 2009. ...Read More