Uncategorized Archive

Personal consumption and income, personal interest income

Flattening with the fiscal contraction, but no recession yet: Thank goodness for the rate hikes and their support of personal income ;) ...Read More

GDP, population, vehicle sales

Weak headline, but so far not looking as bad as most mistakenly expected with Fed rate hikes: Slowing in real terms but growing: Growing fast in nominal terms: This is telling: They’ve generally been falling off for several years, though up a bit for the last three months since the rate hikes: ...Read More

Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s

Not adjusted for inflation but not showing signs of recession: If oil prices remain near current levels the inflation is over and we’re back to pre-Covid low inflation and slow growth, with a government deficit of maybe 5-6% of GDP (including the new interest expense from the rate hikes which support the ...Read More

DFO optimism, homebuyer competition, Architecture index, mortgage purchase apps, builder confidence

This makes sense to me. We have had a post-Covid war slowdown in federal spending that is evidenced by the decelerating economy. But the federal deficit is still high enough to keep things muddling through at modest growth, helped some by the rate hikes which are universally believed to slow things down ...Read More

Shipping, CPI

Worst of the shipping issues are behind us: Wholesale price growth is moderating as well: Core CPI growth also moderating: Headline CPI continues to grow, and it is mainly driven by energy prices: Recently, however, energy prices, which have been the primary driver of higher prices, have dropped substantially, so the next ...Read More

ISM services, employment

The rate of growth has been decelerating due to the fiscal contraction, but remains over 50 which means positive growth: No recession here as employment growth continues and unemployment isn’t rising. Yes, growth is slowing from the post-Covid fiscal collapse, but not yet to the point of negative growth. And the increase ...Read More

Dallas Fed, consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders

Decelerating from post-Covid bounce expansion rates of growth: Decelerating but still at reasonably high levels: Decelerating from the post-Covid war fiscal consolidation but still positive: Still up: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, new home sales, architecture billing index, light vehicle sales

Settling in at pre-Covid levels, and the fiscal collapse depresses growth: Down, but still above 50: Still trending lower from the post-Covid fiscal collapse: ...Read More

Housing starts, sales managers index, mortgage purchase index, sales managers index

After a post-Covid recovery spike, we have settled back to pre-Covid levels, which was well before the rate hikes: Applications have softened. This is the first up-week since the rate hikes: In many ways, we have yet to recover from the oil capex collapse of about 7 years ago: ...Read More

Philly Fed, labor demand, bank loans

Manufacturing settling down to ‘neutral’ after peaking well before the rate hikes as post-Covid shortages are alleviated: Labor demand also peaked well before the rate hikes: Still no sign rate hikes have slowed lending ;) ...Read More