Uncategorized Archive

New home sales, Dallas Fed

Settling back down. Without permit growth this isn’t going anywhere; Highlights New home sales may have fallen back by a monthly 7.6 percent in August, but the 609,000 annualized rate is still above Econoday’s consensus for 598,000. And a major plus in the report is a surprise 5,000 upward revision to July ...Read More

Rail traffic, Philly Fed state index, NY Fed nowcast

Rail Week Ending 17 September 2016: Data Looks Better This Week Week 37 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. However, the data was an improvement over last week. Not looking so good: This ...Read More

Eurozone Composite PMI, US Manufacturing PMI

Also down and a bit lower than expected: United States Manufacturing PMI The flash Markit manufacturing PMI for the United States declined to 51.4 in September of 2016 from 52 in August and below market expectations of 51.9. New business growth eased further, output slowed and export orders fell for the first ...Read More

KC Fed, Recent presentation

Better, apart from employment and prices, which happen to be the Fed’s mandate. So interesting that the KC Fed President wants to hike rates: Highlights Just about every month the Kansas City manufacturing index is in the negative column, but not in September which comes in at plus 6 for the second ...Read More

Fed comments, Chicago Fed, Existing home sales

So growth and employment prospects are lower than those of their prior meeting, when they didn’t raise rates. And their forecasts continue to decelerate: Fed Trims Interest-Rate, Growth Forecasts By Michael S. Derby Sept 21 (WSJ) — Federal Reserve officials cut their growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, from 2.0% in ...Read More

Mtg purchase applications, Architectural billings index

So much for last week’s glimmer of hope: Back down to recession levels: ...Read More

Housing market index, Redbook retail sales, Housing starts

Up a bit, but until permits increase not much chance of home building increasing: Been going from bad to worse: Highlights Redbook’s sample is not pointing to any September improvement for core retail sales. Year-on-year same-store sales rose only 0.2 percent in the September 17 week, about in line with August and ...Read More

Credit check

A very small move up but the deceleration trend is intact: This has been moving lower as well for a while now: As always, and by identity, if anyone spent less than his income, another must have spent more than his income, or the output would not have been sold. So when ...Read More

Long Beach container counts, Ship building orders

Notice the change of course after oil capital expenditures collapsed: http://www.marinelog.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=23076:bimco-shipbuilding-orders-at-20-year-low&Itemid=231 ...Read More

Retail Sales, Industrial production, Inventories, Empire survey, Phili Fed survey, Atlanta Fed

The slow motion train wreck that began in late 2014 with the collapse of oil capex continues unabated, with no sign of reversal that I can detect, and the annual rate of growth is consistent with prior recessions: Highlights After spending heavily in the second quarter, the consumer has stepped back so ...Read More