Category Archives: Uncategorized
Personal income and spending, consumer sentiment
The data keeps telling me the rate hikes are helping the economy rather than hurting it:
“The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 58.6 in September of 2022 from a preliminary of 59.5, but remained above 58.2 in August and the highest in five months. Expectations were revised sharply lower (58 vs 59.9 in the preliminary estimate) while current conditions were seen better (59.7 vs58.9). Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook for business conditions. Meanwhile, inflation in the year ahead was seen higher (4.7% vs 4.6% in the preliminary estimate) while the five-year outlook was revised lower (2.7% vs 2.8%).” (United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment)
Durable goods, housing permits, new home sales, consumer confidence
US manufacturing, bank loans
Exports, multi-family housing starts, unemployment claims
It’s an indirect way to export energy and it works to keep the $US relatively strong:
Existing home sales, architecture billing index, Biden response
and now seem to be maybe a touch below the pre-Covid range:
Housing starts, consumer sentiment
Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments
No recession indication here:
result in a sufficiently large increase in government deficit spending on those interest payments to support both the growth of private sector total spending on goods and services as well as to support prices.