Author Archive

Mtg apps, ADP payrolls

Private businesses in the US hired 749K workers in September of 2020, the most in three months and above market expectations of a 650K rise raising hopes the labour market recovery strengthened. Still, only half of the near 20 million jobs lost since March when the coronavirus crisis started have been recovered. ...Read More

Durable goods orders, air travel, hotel occupancy, gasoline supplied, miles driven, freight index

Same pattern- dip, partial recovery, leveling off and never got back to 2008 levels inflation adjusted: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, Architecture index, New home sales

Slightly higher than last week as they remain alarmingly high: Same pattern- big drop, some recovery, leveling off at lower levels: Same pattern developing but sales holding up at least for now: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, Existing home sales, Services

Not looking good: Up from the massive setback as some sales were delayed rather than cancelled: The emerging pattern seems to be the big collapse, a partial recovery, and then a tapering off from there: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, current account

The current account deficit in the US widened by $59 billion, or 52.9%, to $170.5 billion in Q2 2020, the biggest gap since Q3 2008. It is equivalent to 3.5% of the GDP, compared to 2.1% in Q1. It mostly reflects an expanded deficit on goods and reduced surpluses on primary income ...Read More

Industrial production, Retail sales

Looks like we’ve stopped digging out of the hole: Sales have returned, at least for now, though a lot of sales were lost ‘forever’ due to covid: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, JOLTS

Not much evidence things getting anywhere near back to normal: ...Read More

Loans, interest margins

Business precautionary draw downs of lines of credit caused the spike, followed by a contraction as operational needs contract: Growth in real estate loans is slowing: Consumer borrowing dropped with the stimulus checks and then has flattened: Pause, recovery, and then a leveling off: ...Read More

Options buying, employment

The gap closed but at a slower rate indicating the extent to which the economy remains subdued 6 months into the crisis: Interesting- never seem gov sharply procyclical like this: ...Read More

Trucks and cars, Jobless claims, Trade

Same large dip partial recover story: Down a bit but still way high this many months after the initial surge: ...Read More