Author Archive

New homes sales, PMI, Chicago Fed, recovery tracker

Covid dip, recovery, and now settling back at prior levels. After years of ultra low mortgage rates growth remains slower and absolute levels far below the prior cycle: Post war slowdown narrative continues to unfold: “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to -0.15 in December 2021 from an ...Read More

Unemployment claims, existing home sales, architecture billings, housing starts

Signs of a post war slump continue: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, industrial production, retail sales, inventories

Post war deceleration seems to be on track. Debt/GDP falling fast as Federal Covid spending winds down. ...Read More

Payrolls, consumer credit

Continues to level off well below the pre covid trend: Picking up as Federal transfer payments diminish: ...Read More

Construction spending, JOLTS, vehicle sales, durable goods orders

Starting to fade, and this is not adjusted for inflation: Not sure what to make of this except the post covid bounce seems to be leveling off? This slowdown is more than just a parts shortage: This slowdown is more than just a parts shortage: ...Read More

Dallas Fed, pending home sales, trade

Working its way lower as are most of the indicators: This has helped keep US demand down as fiscal transfers sustained income in the midsts of extensive supply side issues: ...Read More

New home sales, personal consumption, personal income, Architecture index, Chicago Fed

Looks to be leveling off: Fallen back to pre covid trend was fiscal transfers expire, with more on the way for Jan: Back to low growth mode: ...Read More

Retail sales, housing starts, industrial production, unemployment claims

After a nice bounce from the covid dip they seem to be leveling off. And these numbers aren’t adjusted for ‘inflation:’ Up last month but still look to be going sideways: Still slowly recovering to pre covid levels: New claims for unemployment comp remain low: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, port of LA, CPI, consumer sentiment

Back to pre covid levels as fewer people are being let go: Looks to me like the increases will subside if energy prices stabilize: Still looks to be on the decline, as federal deficit spending is quickly fading and inflation reduces the value of savings, causing people and businesses to spend less ...Read More

Trade, Japan, fading savings

The slowdown in imports could indicate a slowing domestic economy: Both exports and imports increased in October. Exports are up 18% compared to October 2020; imports are up 22% compared to October 2020. Japan not doing so well: Personal income and savings went up with the fiscal transfers, and now they’re fading: ...Read More