Author Archive

Employment, Auto sales, Japan

Low wage growth tells me spending remains under pressure: Highlights A very healthy employment report that shows brisk growth and also a movement into the workforce is headlined by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls for June which just tops Econoday’s consensus range. A sharp rise in the number of unemployed ...Read More

Construction spending, NYC real estate, Saudi pricing, Trump on Harley

Last month revised a lot lower, and this month weak as well, as inflation-adjusted spending growth remains negative: Note from US Census: Notice: With this release, unadjusted data have been revised back to January 2016 and seasonally adjusted data back to January 2011. All revised estimates are available on our website. With ...Read More

Gross domestic income, Personal income and spending

The above are quarterly from GDP data. Today’s release is monthly, and, as suggested by the far too low personal savings rate, consumption was revised down a bit and has come in lower this month. However, income was also revised lower, with wage income growth weak even with the reported employment growth, ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Durable goods orders, Pending home sales, Rental vacancy, International trade, Trump threat

Highlights Disruption tied to a fire at an auto supplier not only pulled down the previously released manufacturing component of the industrial production report but it also helped pull down durable goods orders in May which fell an as-expected 0.6 percent. Vehicle orders fell 4.2 percent in the month with vehicle shipments ...Read More

New home sales, OPEC, Tariffs, bank lending

Up more than expected, but last month revised quite a bit lower as well, as housing overall remains depressed: This is not population adjusted: OPEC ministers strike deal on oil production levels A source confirmed to CNBC that a deal has been struck and a statement critical of the U.S. that Iran ...Read More

Mtg apps, Current account, Existing home sales, Wage growth, Equity valuations

Purchase applications remain negative this year vs last: Highlights The June 15 week was an active one for mortgage bankers as the purchase index rose a solid 4.0 percent and the refinance index 6.0 percent. Despite the jump in the purchase index, its year-on-year rate remains in the negative column for a ...Read More

Housing starts, Redbook retail sales, Euro current account

No houses get built without a permit: Highlights The good news in May’s housing starts report is centered in the present, less so in the outlook. Starts jumped 5.0 percent in the month to a 1.350 million annualized rate that hits the top end of Econoday’s consensus range and that should give ...Read More

Housing index, Saudi oil pricing charts

A lot less than expected as the housing slump continues: Highlights Acceleration is not the indication from the home builders’ housing market index which, though at a high level, edged back 2 points in June to 68 which is at the bottom end of Econoday’s consensus range. Current sales at 75, future ...Read More

Industrial production, China retail sales, Miles driven, Federal interest payments, Budget charts

A weaker than expected print due to auto sales which have been volatile, but charts show it’s still chugging along at a modest pace: Highlights A big drop in autos skewed industrial production lower in May, slipping 0.1 percent and missing what was an already soft consensus by 2 tenths. Manufacturing volumes ...Read More

Jobless claims, Retail sales, Bank lending, Fed comments

Just a reminder (from 2015) as to why claims are this low: This is not population adjusted: We haven’t yet to recover from the last recession, in my opinion due to an ongoing lack of demand: Highlights The FOMC said yesterday that household spending has picked up and indeed it has. Retail ...Read More