Author Archive
New homes sales, PMI, Chicago Fed, recovery tracker
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Jan 27, 2022
Covid dip, recovery, and now settling back at prior levels. After years of ultra low mortgage rates growth remains slower and absolute levels far below the prior cycle: Post war slowdown narrative continues to unfold: “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to -0.15 in December 2021 from an
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Unemployment claims, existing home sales, architecture billings, housing starts
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Jan 20, 2022
Signs of a post war slump continue:
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Consumer sentiment, industrial production, retail sales, inventories
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Jan 14, 2022
Post war deceleration seems to be on track. Debt/GDP falling fast as Federal Covid spending winds down.
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Payrolls, consumer credit
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Jan 09, 2022
Continues to level off well below the pre covid trend: Picking up as Federal transfer payments diminish:
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Construction spending, JOLTS, vehicle sales, durable goods orders
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Jan 06, 2022
Starting to fade, and this is not adjusted for inflation: Not sure what to make of this except the post covid bounce seems to be leveling off? This slowdown is more than just a parts shortage: This slowdown is more than just a parts shortage:
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Dallas Fed, pending home sales, trade
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Dec 30, 2021
Working its way lower as are most of the indicators: This has helped keep US demand down as fiscal transfers sustained income in the midsts of extensive supply side issues:
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New home sales, personal consumption, personal income, Architecture index, Chicago Fed
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Dec 23, 2021
Looks to be leveling off: Fallen back to pre covid trend was fiscal transfers expire, with more on the way for Jan: Back to low growth mode:
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Retail sales, housing starts, industrial production, unemployment claims
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Dec 16, 2021
After a nice bounce from the covid dip they seem to be leveling off. And these numbers aren’t adjusted for ‘inflation:’ Up last month but still look to be going sideways: Still slowly recovering to pre covid levels: New claims for unemployment comp remain low:
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Unemployment claims, port of LA, CPI, consumer sentiment
Economic Releases, Retail Sales
Dec 10, 2021
Back to pre covid levels as fewer people are being let go: Looks to me like the increases will subside if energy prices stabilize: Still looks to be on the decline, as federal deficit spending is quickly fading and inflation reduces the value of savings, causing people and businesses to spend less
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Trade, Japan, fading savings
Economic Releases, Japan, Retail Sales
Dec 08, 2021
The slowdown in imports could indicate a slowing domestic economy: Both exports and imports increased in October. Exports are up 18% compared to October 2020; imports are up 22% compared to October 2020. Japan not doing so well: Personal income and savings went up with the fiscal transfers, and now they’re fading:
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