Author Archive
Las Vegas, Current account and currency
Economic Releases
May 14, 2018
Yen: Euro:
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Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts
Economic Releases
May 08, 2018
There is now growing evidence that the economy’s deceleration that followed the collapse of oil related capital expenditures at the end of 2014 continued for about two years after which it reversed course. This means the collapse in private sector deficit spending was replaced by other sources of deficit spending, some of
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Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales
Economic Releases
May 06, 2018
Economic intuitive sectors of employment were mixed with truck transport contracting. This month’s report internals (comparing household to establishment data sets) was inconsistent with the household survey showing seasonally adjusted employment expanding only 3,000 vs the headline establishment number expanding 164,000. The point here is that part of the headlines are from
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ADP employment, Light vehicle sales
Economic Releases
May 02, 2018
Auto sales continue to slow: The BEA released their estimate of April vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated sales of 17.07 million SAAR in April 2018 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.7% from the March sales rate, and up slightly from April 2017. Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#kXZuxyjWLR2MW4ME.99 Light truck sales were
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GDP, Bank lending, Construction spending, Capital investment, Emerging market debt, Smartphone exports
Economic Releases
May 01, 2018
As previously discussed, something has to give to bring the savings rate inline, and the low reported personal consumption expenditures are a step in that direction, and housing has also been soft, as were prices. Also, while inventory building adds to GDP, combined with slower sales growth it doesn’t bode well for
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Capex forecasts, Euro area GDP, Gasoline prices, Richmond Fed, New home sales
Economic Releases
Apr 25, 2018
Trumped up expectations reversing? Growing modestly, and still below levels of the early 1970’s, and well below levels of the 2001 recession. The chart is not adjusted for population:
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Architectural index, Corporate leverage, Saudi oil pricing
Economic Releases, Uncategorized
Apr 19, 2018
Muddling through at depressed levels: Saudis set price. If they decide to hike as below, it will happen: OPEC’s new price hawk Saudi Arabia seeks oil as high as $100 Apr 18 (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy to see crude rise to $80 or even $100 a
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Housing starts, Industrial production
Economic Releases
Apr 17, 2018
Must be some tax thing driving multifamily last month: Highlights The residential construction business had a very strong March: housing starts easily topped Econoday’s high estimate at a 1.319 million annualized rate while permits came in just shy of the top estimate at a very strong 1.354 million. Multi-family units are the
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Retail sales, Business inventories, Port traffic, Infrastructure
Economic Releases
Apr 17, 2018
Propped up by autos, as the rest continues weak, and autos aren’t looking so good longer term either: Highlights In a slight reversal of expectations, retail sales proved stronger at the headline level, up 0.6 percent in March, than the core readings which did however still post respectable gains at 0.3 percent
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Budget comments, ISM forecast, Global bank lending, Fed rate expectations, ECB Euro comments
Economic Releases
Apr 13, 2018
Eine neue wissenschaftliche Wahrheit pflegt sich nicht in der Weise durchzusetzen, daß ihre Gegner überzeugt werden und sich als belehrt erklären, sondern vielmehr dadurch, daß ihre Gegner allmählich aussterben und daß die heranwachsende Generation von vornherein mit der Wahrheit vertraut gemacht ist. “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its
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