Author Archive

Mtg apps, Jolts, Trade

Still going nowhere: Highlights The volume of purchase applications for home mortgages remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in the February 2 week, while refinancing applications rose 1.0 percent from the previous week despite the headwind of rising interest rates. Unadjusted, purchase applications increased 7 percent from the previous week, though ...Read More

US service sector surveys

Seems the two US service sector surveys are a bit at odds with each other: ...Read More

Employment, Factory orders, Bank loans

Note how the year over year growth rate continues it’s 3 year decline, and is in ‘stall speed’ with no sign of reversal. And last I heard a .1 change in the work week hours is equal to about 100,000 jobs, so the .2 drop last month offsets the 200,000 new jobs: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Construction spending, GDP comments, Comments on tax cuts, Comments on fed policy

Even lower than expected as weakness continues: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 17.1 million annual rate in January By Bill McBride Feb 1, (calculated Risk) — Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 17.1 million SAAR in January. That is down 1.2% from January 2017, ...Read More

ADP employment forecast, Pending home sales, Income and spending

This is now a forecast for Friday’s payroll number, and note from the chart that it’s been diverging all year. Seems there’s some kind of error in their forecasting methodology? Highlights ADP sees a very strong employment report coming out on Friday, estimating a 234,000 rise in private payrolls. ADP has been ...Read More

Spending and savings, Apartment market tightness, Vehicle sales

Seems to me this divergence has been stretched to the limit: And this chart from Daniele Della Bona shows how dipping into savings via borrowing adds to interest expense that further reduces savings when other personal income is lagging: And this shows the gap: And from a different angle: And this was ...Read More

Personal income and outlays, GDP, PMI’s, Philly Fed index, Bank loans, Rail traffic

Pretty much in line with expectations, but last month’s spending increase means what I think was an unsustainably low savings rate is now even lower. Highlights Personal income rose 0.4 percent in December with wages and salaries up a solid 0.5 percent. Spending also rose 0.4 percent in December with November revised ...Read More

New home sales

Much lower than expected, and last month’s number, which was touted as the turning point for housing, was revised lower as well. And note from the chart we’re still below the levels of the 1970’s when the population was about 40% lower: Highlights The headline 9.3 percent decline in new home sales ...Read More

Existing home sales, PMI services, Coal mining jobs

Less than expected and last month’s number revised a bit lower, so still no contribution to growth for the year: Highlights Lack of supply pulled down existing home sales in December and may very well pull down sales in January as well. Existing home sales fell 3.6 percent in December to an ...Read More

Housing starts, Apple repatriation

Starts were quite a bit lower than expected while permits held steady: From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000. This is 8.2 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,299,000 and is 6.0 percent below ...Read More