Shutdown- this time it’s very different

The negatives:

Profit growth already low and slowing
Car sales rolled over in September
New home sales already rolled over
Housing starts flattened
Personal income anemic, and distribution issues further softening demand
800,000 federal workers not getting paid
0 rate policy/QE is a deflationary bias
Pro active austerity already initiated
Federal deficit looking too low for financial conditions
Markets/analysts have ignored/ridiculed the paradox of thrift so are ‘long and wrong’
Japan’s currency depreciation works against US and euro domestic demand

Not only no chance of fiscal relaxation if things go bad, but more likely further fiscal tightening.

So it’s thereby worse than flying without a net.

The positives:

Just rhetoric-
Americans are resilient and all that…

feel free to distribute.

Currency depreciation not necessarily the silver bullet

BOJ Survey Shows Consumer Sentiment Worsen As Energy Prices Rise

October 2 (Dow Jones) — A Bank of Japan survey showed Wednesday that consumer sentiment worsened for the first time in three quarters as a rise in energy prices amid a lack of major wage increases negatively affected their views on the economy. The central bank’s survey of the general public showed that the diffusion index measuring the current state of the economy fell to minus 8.3 from minus 4.8. Of the poll of 2,252 consumers, 83% of respondents said they expect the prices of goods and services to rise over the coming year. That’s higher than 80.2% in the previous June survey. The survey also showed that 16.2% of the respondents see the economy improving in coming year, down from the previous 24.3%.