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The possibility of announcing an exit from Afghanistan with the funds saved to pay down the deficit would be extremely popular short term and contribute to lower GDP and higher levels of unemployment over the medium term.
Those shorting dollars are selling them to foreign central banks who want their currencies weaker vs the dollar. This means it is unlikely they ever sell their dollars.
Float to lower crude prices and modestly declining us gasoline consumption would threaten the viability of the dollar shorts.
Much of this has been a reaction to the fed building its portfolio, which many presume to be an inflationary act of ‘printing money’ which it is, in fact, not.
By Oliver Biggadike and Matthew Brown
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — Brazil, South Korea and Russia are losing the battle among developing nations to reduce gains in their currencies and keep exports competitive as the demand for their financial assets, driven by the slumping dollar, is proving more than central banks can handle.
South Korea Deputy Finance Minister Shin Je Yoon said yesterday the country will leave the level of its currency to market forces after adding about $63 billion to its foreign exchange reserves this year to slow the appreciation of the won. Chile Finance Minister Andres Velasco said the same day that lawmakers approved an increase in local debt sales to finance spending, a move that will allow the government to keep more of its dollar-based savings overseas and slow the pesoâ€™s rally.
Governments are amassing record foreign-exchange reserves as they direct central banks to buy dollars in an attempt to stem the greenbackâ€™s slide and keep their currencies from appreciating too fast and making their exports too expensive. Half of the 10-best performers in the currency market this year came from developing markets, gaining at least 14 percent on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
â€œIt looked for a while like the Bank of Korea was trying to defend 1,200, but it looks like theyâ€™ve given up and are just trying to slow the advance,â€ said Collin Crownover, head of currency management in London at State Street Global Advisors, which has $1.7 trillion under management.
The won, after falling 44 percent against the dollar in March 2009 from its 10-year high of 899.69 to the dollar in October 2007, is now headed for its biggest annual rally since a 15 percent gain in 2004. It traded today at 1,160.32, up 8.6 percent since the end of December.
Brazilâ€™s real is up 1.6 percent this month, even after imposing a tax in October on foreign stock and bond investments and increasing foreign reserves by $9.5 billion in October in an effort to curb the currencyâ€™s appreciation. The real has risen 33 percent this year.
â€œWe have to be careful that our exchange rate doesnâ€™t appreciate too much as to deindustrialize the country,â€ Marcos Verissimo, chief of staff at Brazilâ€™s state development bank known as BNDES, said yesterday at a conference in Sao Paulo. â€œThe capital goods industry has suffered tremendously.â€
Russiaâ€™s Bank Rossii increased its foreign reserves by 15 percent since March 13 as it sold rubles in an attempt to cap the currencyâ€™s gain. Even so, the surge in commodities prices this year means Russiaâ€™s steps to fight a stronger ruble may â€œnot be productive,â€ the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. Energy, including oil and natural gas, accounted for 69.5 percent of exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union and the Baltic states in the first nine months, according the Federal Customs Service.