OECD Calls an End to the Global Recession


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Guess it wasn’t as bad as most of the doomsday crowd thought?

They never give sufficient credit to the automatic stabilizers and fiscal policy in general.

I suppose that were understood there would have been a policy response at least a year ago to avert the damage that resulted by their lack of appropriate action.

Nor is a double dip out of the question, with proposals to tighten fiscal looming and interest rates very low.

OECD calls an end to the global recession

By David Prosser

September 12 (The Independent) — The global downturn was effectively declared over yesterday, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revealing that “clear signs of recovery are now visible” in all seven of the leading Western economies, as well as in each of the key “Bric” nations.

The OECD’s composite leading indicators suggest that activity is now improving in all of the world’s most significant 11 economies – the leading seven, consisting of the US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Japan, and the Bric nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China – and in almost every case at a faster pace than previously.

Composite Leading Indicators point to broad economic recovery

September 11 (OECD) — OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for July 2009 show stronger signs of recovery in most of the OECD economies. Clear signals of recovery are now visible in all major seven economies, in particular in France and Italy, as well as in China, India and Russia. The signs from Brazil, where a trough is emerging, are also more encouraging than in last month’s assessment.


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5 Responses to OECD Calls an End to the Global Recession

  1. C.F. Allison says:

    Virtually all of the PhD economists missed this greatest of economic collapses since the Great Depression. Now, after the DOW crashed from 14,000 to 7,000 but has recovered to 9,700, they are suddenly calling everything peaches and cream (en masse). I’ll play the contrarian and say that they are all wrong — again and this is Elliott Wave 2 up and Wave 3 down is just around the corner. Unfortunately for all you optimists, Wave 3 down will make Wave 1 down (yeah,that was the part that took the Dow to 7,000), look like a Sunday picnic. Oh, and contrary to the government spending enthusiasts, Helicopter Ben won’t be able to convince anyone to borrow and spend more money….the psychology of fear will soon rule the day….

    Reply

  2. warren mosler says:

    what, operationally, are central bankers doing that has further macro consequence of any consequence?

    Reply

  3. CJ Maloney says:

    First off, I must disagree with all the PhD addled “experts” calling an end to the depression – what we are experiencing is little more than a jolt of monetary mischief. It is not hard to create a boom in paper assets through printing massive sums of new fiduciary media – see the recent happenings in Zimbabwe. The bad investments and bankrupt banks (among other businesses) have STILL, two years on, NOT been cleaned out by bankruptcy. Without that happening, the end of this depression will take many years.

    I also must disagree with Mr. Mosler who wrote “negative consequences will come from a shortage of the aggregate demand necessary to get the output bought.” All that is necessary to get “aggregate demand” going again is to allow prices to fall to whatever level will clear inventory. And who is preventing this process at all costs?

    Again I must disagree with Mr. Mosler who writes “the central banks have very little to do with this process, though they don’t know that.” The central banks, by their insane, irrational DELIBERATE efforts to “raise prices” (so much for caring about the unemployed and the poor) are doing all they can to prevent the market from adjusting – so they have everything to do with the fact that the clearing process is moribund.

    There should be a giant sign above every single central bank that states “Don’t Mess With Prices”. Unfortunately, the defining characteristic of today’s central banker is that they are all very, very, very good at math, but know nothing of economics.

    Letting prices adjust and letting bankrupt businesses fail, THAT will clean out the errors of the past. By the central bankers refusing to let that happen, they are extending and exacerbating the misery.

    Reply

  4. Warren Mosler says:

    negative consequences will come from a shortage of the aggregate demand necessary to get the output bought.

    the central banks have very little to do with with this process, though they don’t know that.

    it’s mainly about fiscal policy.

    By the way, you write very well!

    Reply

  5. Captain CraZ says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/160619-the-coming-consequences-of-banking-fraud?source=article_sb_popular

    The Double Dip Recession, or the “W” shaped recovery that a minority of economists, such as Joseph Stiglitz, is now stating as a strong possible outcome of this current rally, should not be discussed in the realm of economics but rather in the more apropos realm of financial fraud. The fact that the upleg of the “W” shaped recovery that is occurring now will inevitably crumble in spectacular fashion will not be a result of any free market principle, but rather the direct consequence of a fraudulent scheme executed by an elite global financial oligarchy, otherwise known as Central Banks. If the mission of this current manufactured leg-up in Western stock markets was to fool the world into believing that global economies are recovering, then clearly, up until this point, the mission has been a resounding success. For those unfamiliar with the term “blowback”, it’s a CIA term that was first used in March 1954 to describe the unintended consequences of US government international activities kept secret from the American people.

    Though this term has primarily been used to describe the consequences of covert military operations, “blowback” is an appropriate term to use to describe the coming consequences of banking fraud because the US government, US Federal Reserve, Wall Street, the US Treasury, and the Exchange Stabilization Fund have all engaged in domestic and international financial and monetary transactions that have been kept secret from the world, and that will have severe and negative consequences in the not so distant future. In fact, I predict that the blowback of these activities will not only exceed, but far exceed, the fallout the world experienced in 2008 at the prior apex of this current crisis. Most people today can not even fathom how bad the situation will become primarily because of all the secrecy that the banksters have engaged in – in US Treasury markets, the gold markets, the US dollar markets, agriculture commodities, stock markets, and financial markets – in hiding reality from the people.

    Reply

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