Tag Archives: Initial Jobless Claims

2007-12-20 US Economic Releases

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small 2007-12-20 GPD Annualized

GDP Annualized (3QF)

Survey 4.9%
Actual 4.9%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

small 2007-12-20 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (3QF)

Survey 42.8.9%
Actual 2.8%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

2007-12-20 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (3QF)

Survey 0.9%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

Above numbers as expected.

small 2007-12-20 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (3QF)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

This is now at the upper bound of the fed’s comfort zone.

2007-12-20 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 15)

Survey 335K
Actual 346K
Prior 333K
Revised 334K

Creeping up.

Fed gets concerned if it gets over 375K.

2007-12-20 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 8)

Survey 2610K
Actual 264K
Prior 2639K
Revised 2634K

Creeping up as well, but not yet a major concern.

2007-12-20 Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators (Nov)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

Pretty much in line with expectations.

2007-12-20 Philadelphia Fed.

Philadelphia Fed. (Dec)

Survey 6.0%
Actual -5.7%
Prior 8.2%
Revised n/a

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2007-12-13 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-13 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.5%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Off the charts!

2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

Core moving up to headline?
That’s the fed’s worst nightmare now.

2007-12-13 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 6.0%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

Moving higher from an already too high number.

2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

The ‘anchor’ is slipping.

2007-12-13 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Consumer spent above energy price hikes.
Reserves the softness of the 0.2% spending number reported for October.

2007-12-13 Retail Sales Less Auto

Retail Sales Less Auto (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Very strong.

2007-12-13 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 335K
Actual 333K
Prior 338K
Revised 340K

Fed sees no slack in the labor markets.

2007-12-13 Continuing Claims

Counting Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 2599K
Actual 2639K
Prior 2599K
Revised 2601K

Some weakness here but overwhelmed by the other numbers being reported.

2007-12-13 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Oct)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

No obvious signals here.

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2007-12-06 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-06 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 335K
Actual 338K
Prior 352K
Revised 353K

Down from the week before, chart still looks like a modest up move has taken place. Still comfortably below the 375-400K level that would signal a slowdown.


2007-12-06 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Nov 24)

Survey 2620K
Actual 2599K
Prior 2665K
Revised 2658K

Also backing off from last week’s mini spike and not a problem for the fed at current levels.

2007-12-06 Mortgage Deliquencies

Mortgage Delinquencies (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.59%
Prior 5.12%
Revised n/a

 

Delinquencies up some, but probably not far from fed expectations.

2007-12-06 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

Survey 2.4%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 5.12%
Revised n/a

 

These look fine – up a touch and no sign of collapse.

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2007-11-29 US Economic Releases

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GCP Annualized (3QP)

Survey 4.8%
Actual 4.9%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

Keeps coming in above expectations.

Personal Consumption (3QP)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 3.0%
Revised n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

GDP Price Index (3QP)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.9%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

Core PCE QoQ (3QP)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24)

Survey 330K
Actual 352K
Prior 330K
Revised 329K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

Continuing Claims (Nov 17)

Survey 2575K
Actual 2665K
Prior 2566K
Revised 2553K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 750K
Actual 728K
Prior 770K
Revised 716K

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -2.6%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 4.8%
Revised -0.1%

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

Help Wanted Index (Oct)

Survey 23
Actual 23
Prior 24
Revised n/a

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

House Price Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Moving lower.
Do you think any of this is below fed expectations as of October 31st?

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