Tag Archives: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

2008-09-09 USER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Stores Sales YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

 
Muddling through, well off the bottom, and not at recession levels.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep. 9)

 
Pretty much the same, muddling through and far from recession levels.

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Pending Home Sales (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 86.5
Prior 89.4
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.2%
Prior 5.3%
Revised 5.8%

 
A bit lower but last month’s gain revised even higher.

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.5%
Prior -11.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still negative but looks to be surfacing rapidly.

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 10.6%
Prior 9.3%
Revised n/a

 
Inventories up but within normal fluctuations.

The question is causation- weak sales and unwanted inventories or building inventories for increasing demand

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Jul)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 45.8
Prior 42.8
Revised n/a

 


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2008-04-08 US Economic Releases

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COMMENTS TO COME!!

2008-04-08 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.9%
Prior 0.0%
Revised 0.3%

2008-04-08 Pending Home Sales Total SA

Pending Home Sales Total SA

Survey n/a
Actual 84.6
Prior 86.2
Revised n/a

Last month revised to actually being up a tad, but back down this month.

Not going anywhere as of February, but still a winter number.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Apr)

Survey 41.5
Actual 39.2
Prior 42.5
Revised n/a

2008-04-08 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Apr 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -34
Prior -33
Revised n/a

Still looking to me as turning to the upside. A stable stock market should help a lot.

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2008-03-11 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-11 Trade Balance TABLE

Trade Balance TABLE

2008-03-11 Exports YoY

Exports YoY

2008-03-11 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Jan)

Survey -$59.5B
Actual -$58.2B
Prior -$58.8B
Revised -$57.9B

Exports up over 16.6% year over year (supports GDP) – looks like a banana republic!

Trade balance lower than expected with crude up to much. Should keep working it’s way lower all year as non residents work to reduce their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Mar)

Survey 40.5
Actual 42.5
Prior 44.5
Revised n/a

Down, but a little bit better than expected.

2008-03-11 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -30
Prior -34
Revised n/a

Could that be a bounce back?  Haven’t seen one in so long can’t remember….

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2008-01-08 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-08 Pending Sales Total SA

Pending Home Sales Total SA

Survey -0.7%
Actual -2.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom.

ibd-tipp-economic-optimism-graph.gif

Economic
Outlook		 Personal
Financial
Outlook		 Federal
Economic
Policies		 Overall
Jan. 2008 31.4 55.7 42.7 43.2
Dec. 2007 32.1 58.3 42.7 44.4
Nov. 2007 30.8 53.5 47.1 43.8
Oct. 2007 38.5 58.2 45.1 47.3
Sept. 2007 37.9 59.3 47.3 48.2
Aug. 2007 40.3 59.8 48.5 49.5
July 2007 39.5 58.3 46.8 48.2
June 2007 41.3 58.9 47.1 49.1
May 2007 39.1 57.6 47.3 48
April 2007 34.9 56.2 45.3 45.5
March 2007 41.5 61.1 49.8 50.8
Feb. 2007 46.4 60.8 51 52.7

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan) TABLE

Survey 43.0
Actual 43.2
Prior 44.4
Revised n/a

Speaks for itself…

2008-01-08 Consumer Credit Net Net Change

Consumer Credit Total Net Change

Survey $8.0B
Actual $15.4B
Prior $4.7B
Revised $2.0B

Explains November spending strength and probably borrowed from December due to how the holidays fell.

2008-01-08 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence

Survey -20
Actual -20
Prior -20
Revised n/a

♥

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