- ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Released 7:45 EST)
- ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Released 7:45 EST)
- Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)
- Redbook Store Sales MoM (Released 8:55 EST)
- ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)
- GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST)
- GDP YoY Annualized Real (Released 8:30 EST)
- GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (Released 8:30 EST)
- GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST)
- Core PCE QoQ (Released 8:30 EST)
- GDP ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
- GDP ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
- S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Released 9:00 EST)
- S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Released 9:00 EST)
- S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Released 9:00 EST)
- S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
- Consumer Confidence (Released 10:00 EST)
- Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Released 10:00 EST)
- Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Released 10:00 EST)
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Released 10:00 EST)
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Released 10:00 EST)
- House Price Index MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
- House Price Index YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
- House Price Index ALLX (Released 10:00 EST)
- House Price Purchase Index QoQ (Released 10:00 EST)
Karim writes:
- Overlooked with the Fed headlines, but likely to lead to further downward revisions to Q4/Q1 growth outlook.
ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 25)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -0.80% |
| Prior | -0.10% |
| Revised | n/a |
Looking very soft, even with low gasoline prices.
ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 25)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -0.90% |
| Prior | 0.30% |
| Revised | n/a |
Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 25)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -1.40% |
| Prior | -0.90% |
| Revised | n/a |
Same.
Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 25)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -1.30% |
| Prior | -1.10% |
| Revised | n/a |
Karim writes:
- Johnson Redbook sales down 1.3% m/m thru 3rd week of November.
- Another negative retail sales month sets up Q4 real GDP for at least -4%
ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 25)
GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q P)
| Survey | -0.5% |
| Actual | -0.5% |
| Prior | -0.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
As expected and in line with the longer term down trend in real gdp growth
Good evidence of a continuing and increasing lack of aggregate demand.
GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q P)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 0.7% |
| Prior | 2.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
Mildly positive but the trend is still looking down.
GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q P)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 3.4% |
| Prior | 4.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
Barely positive.
GDP Price Index (3Q P)
| Survey | 4.2% |
| Actual | 4.2% |
| Prior | 4.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
High but expected to fall with falling commodity prices.
Core PCE QoQ (3Q P)
| Survey | 2.9% |
| Actual | 2.6% |
| Prior | 2.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
Looks to be in a long term uptrend, though also expected to fall with commodity prices.
GDP ALLX 1 (3Q P)
GDP ALLX 2 (3Q P)
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Sep)
| Survey | 163.00 |
| Actual | 161.56 |
| Prior | 164.57 |
| Revised | 164.40 |
Took a turn for the worse.
Karim writes:
- Case Shiller down 1.85% q/q and -17.4% y/y
S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Sep)
| Survey | -16.90% |
| Actual | -17.40% |
| Prior | -16.62% |
| Revised | -16.60% |
S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (3Q)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 150.04 |
| Prior | 155.32 |
| Revised | 155.45 |
S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (3Q)
| Survey | -17.05% |
| Actual | -16.55% |
| Prior | -15.40% |
| Revised | -15.07% |
Consumer Confidence (Nov)
| Survey | 38.0 |
| Actual | 44.9 |
| Prior | 38.0 |
| Revised | 38.8 |
Tiny blip up- well above expectations.
Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Nov)
Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Nov)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
| Survey | -27 |
| Actual | -38 |
| Prior | -26 |
| Revised | n/a |
Far worse than expected, more in line with Q4 GDP forecasts of -4%.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Nov)
House Price Index MoM (Sep)
| Survey | -0.7% |
| Actual | -1.3% |
| Prior | -0.6% |
| Revised | -0.8% |
Also falling like a rock.
House Price Index YoY (Sep)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -7.0% |
| Prior | -6.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
No sign of turning around yet.
House Price Index ALLX (Sep)
House Price Purchase Index QoQ (3Q)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -1.8% |
| Prior | -1.4% |
| Revised | n/a |
The decline has resumed.
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