Re: Eurozone to stick to their budget rules


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This will keep a lid on euro aggregate demand in the eurozone for a while as budget deficits grow due to falling revenues and increasing transfer payments.

Larger national deficits are needed to sustain output and employment, but also add systemic risk due to their peculiar institutional structure.

Eurozone to honour budget rules as econ faces stall

By Dave Graham and Anna Willard

BRUSSELS, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Euro zone finance ministers pledged on Monday to stick to European Union budget rules even though economic growth is seen halting next year, in a deal the European Commission hailed as needed policy cooperation.

“This is not the time to let the deficits rip,” said Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of monthly talks among the finance ministers of the 15-country currency area.

“We don’t want to indulge in an orgy of spending and indebtedness — in essence, mortgaging future generations,” he told a news conference after their Monday talks.

The ministers backed European Commission forecasts that the aggregate budget gap of the euro countries would rise to 1.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 from 1.3 percent seen this year and to 2.0 percent in 2010, unless policies change.

They also supported the Commission’s estimate that euro zone economic growth would slow to a mere 0.1 percent next year from 1.2 percent expected in 2008 in the wake of the financial crisis.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the widening of the deficit, mainly as a result of a natural fall in revenues and a rise in expenditure, already constituted a significant fiscal stimulus for the euro zone.

>   
>   On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 11:18 PM, James K. wrote:
>   
>   sad, sad.
>   
>   ”This is not the time to let the deficits rip,” said Jean-Claude Juncker,
>   chairman of monthly talks among the finance ministers of the
>   15-country currency area.
>   

Their loss, our gain, if we play our cards right and accommodate their desire for export driven growth- preferably with their exports going to us.

Might happen if we have the right fiscal package and trade policy to support imports.


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Reuters: German surplus


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Wrong time for tight fiscal from a macro perspective, and contributed to the subsequent slowdown, but as a credit sensitive entity they are compelled to go in that direction.

It’s one of those darned if you do and darned if you don’t.

German budget surplus seen at 7 bln eur in H1-report

by Dave Graham

(Reuters) Germany likely posted a budget surplus of some 7.3 billion euros ($10.85 billion) in the first half of 2008 according to the Kiel-based IfW economic research institute, business daily Handelsblatt reported on Sunday.

The IfW thinktank had calculated the combined surplus of federal, state and local governments in the first half equated to 0.6 percent of German gross domestic product, the paper said.

Germany’s Federal Statistics Office is due to publish a budget balance estimate for the January-to-June period on Tuesday. ($1=.6727 Euro)


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