2009-05-06 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior -18.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 264.30
Prior 251.60
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 5169.30
Prior 5108.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 47.0%
Prior 180.7%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Apr)

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ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey -645K
Actual -491K
Prior -742K
Revised -708K

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ADP ALLX (Apr)


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2009-03-04 USER


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It all still looks very, very weak. But so low that even small improvements will show high % gains.


MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.6%
Prior -15.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 236.40
Prior 250.50
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3063.40
Prior 3618.00
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 158.49%
Prior 222.40%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Feb)

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ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey -630K
Actual -697K
Prior -522K
Revised -614K

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ADP ALLX (Feb)

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 193.05
Prior 199.39
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.43%
Prior -21.59%
Revised n/a

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 41.0
Actual 41.6
Prior 42.9
Revised 42.9


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2009-01-07 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 344.20
Prior 320.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 5904.50
Prior 6733.80
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 274.5%
Prior 148.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Dec)

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ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey -495K
Actual -693K
Prior -250K
Revised -476K

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ADP ALLX (Dec)


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2008-04-30 US Economic Releases


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2008-04-30 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 25)

Survey n/a
Actual 340.1
Prior 357.3
Revised n/a

Definately looking weak. Winter is over, and tax rebates are in the mail.


2008-04-30 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 1905.2
Prior 2286.3
Revised n/a

Settling down as well.


2008-04-30 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey -60K
Actual 10K
Prior 8K
Revised 3K

Employment growth continues to slow over time but not yet signaling recession.

Non-farm payrolls muddling through as well.


2008-04-30 GDP QoQ Annualized

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Still in the black, and my guess is it’s likely to be revised up with the March trade numbers that are due in in a couple of weeks.


2008-04-30 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (1Q A)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Also holding up better than expected, and rebates are on the way.


2008-04-30 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (1Q A)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

Better than expected, still high, and with crude continuing to move up it’s going up as well.


2008-04-30 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (1Q A)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

The trend is up, and the Fed is monitoring it closely…


2008-04-30 Employment Cost Index

Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

Looks under control, but not a brake on inflation.


2008-04-30 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 47.5%
Actual 48.3%
Prior 48.2%
Revised n/a

A touch better than expected, but still trending lower.


2008-04-30 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 48.0
Prior 47.0
Revised n/a

Also not down to recession levels yet.


2008-04-30 FOMC Rate Decision

FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 30)

Survey 2.00%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.25%
Revised n/a

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