Construction spending, ISM manufacturing

Another setback for construction, which a ‘borrowing to spend’ item:

Construction Spending

cons-spending
Highlights
Construction outlays unexpectedly declined in September on public outlays and somewhat on the private nonresidential component. Private residential spending was a positive for the month. . Construction spending declined 0.4 percent in September after a 0.5 percent decrease in August. Market expectations were for a 0.6 percent boost.

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Meanwhile, manufacturing is chugging along as it usually is:

ISM Mfg Index

ISM-table
Highlights
The ISM report stands out starkly from the net result of other anecdotal surveys on October’s manufacturing sector, showing outstanding growth at a composite index of 59.0 vs 56.6 in September. This level matches August’s level with the two the strongest since February 2011.

New orders, the most important reading in the report, rose a strong 5.8 points to a blistering 65.8. This points to rising activity across the supply chain in the months ahead. Export orders slowed in the month, as they did for Markit’s sample released earlier this morning, which implies that domestic demand is especially strong. In two signs of strength, total backlog orders rose while supplier deliveries, reflecting ongoing congestion in the supply chain, slowed.

Production, at 64.8, is strong and in line with orders. Inventories show slight accumulation. Price pressures moderated as they have in most reports for October, the result of lower oil prices.

This report may be just a bit too strong, given that ISM’s data have not been tracking well this year with hard data on the manufacturing sector where growth has been flat.

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Mortgage Purchase Applications Fall Even Further

This continuing decline is particularly troubling as cash buyers are also on the decline, and home sales are already at severely depressed levels by any measure.

Furthermore, prices have also been falling month to month, and the year over year gains are heading towards negative territory as well.

This cycle may now be over.

With the federal deficit this low in the context of today’s credit conditions, income lost in one slow period is a drag on the next period, as credit expansion can’t keep up with unspent incomes and it all goes into reverse.

MBA Purchase Applications

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Highlights
The big drop this month in mortgage rates has yet to raise demand for purchase applications which, in the October 24 week, fell a sharp 5.0 percent for the second straight week. And the trend for purchase applications is suddenly moving lower with the year-on-year rate, which had been in the low negative double-digits, now at minus 15 percent.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, 2014. …

The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. … The seasonally adjusted purchase index and conventional purchase index were the lowest since February 2014, while the government purchase index was the lowest since August 2007.

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