This is the driving force behind gold. When central banks buy it, they pay for it by crediting a central bank member bank’s account on their own books. It is spending that adds to currency depreciation and ‘inflation’ in general. I call it off balance sheet deficit spending as it ‘doesn’t count’ as deficit spending as reported by the local government or international agencies like the IMF and World Bank. Note that Turkey was the largest buyer which I calculate to be about $5 billion of gold purchases.

No sign of recession from rate hikes here:

Lower than pre-Covid level, but seems to be going sideways since the rate hikes:

This series has continued to weaken since the rate hikes, even as real estate lending continues to grow and new home construction is at an all time high:

Continues to look to me to like the increased government deficit from the rate hikes, at the macro level, continues to support output and employment and is not triggering a recession as feared?

Still a very high number- well above pre-Covid levels:

Back to pre-Covid trend line:

A slight decline for the month but still trending higher. No sign of recession here:

The rate of growth of bank real estate lending continues to increase since the rate hikes were initiated:

So far so good for Q3 that ended Sep 30- about in line with pre-Covid growth rates:

Much like the US, much of the rest of the world is hiking rates with high debt/GDP and supporting their economies that had slowed from fiscal contraction with massive government interest payments- universal basic income for those who already have money:

Looks like the pro forecasters see accelerating earrings ahead- yet more evidence the rate hikes aren’t working in the intended direction:

Lots of commodities to or near pre-Covid levels:

Still looking lower but still positive and not yet indicating recession:

Modest growth continues.

The data keeps telling me the rate hikes are helping the economy rather than hurting it:

This is nominal, not adjusted for inflation, and there is no evidence of rate hikes slowing anything down:

Same here for inflation-adjusted consumption:

Too soon to say it is turned up, but better than expected and not indicating a recession:

“The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 58.6 in September of 2022 from a preliminary of 59.5, but remained above 58.2 in August and the highest in five months. Expectations were revised sharply lower (58 vs 59.9 in the preliminary estimate) while current conditions were seen better (59.7 vs58.9). Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook for business conditions. Meanwhile, inflation in the year ahead was seen higher (4.7% vs 4.6% in the preliminary estimate) while the five-year outlook was revised lower (2.7% vs 2.8%).” (United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment)

No recession here:

Permits for new home construction are down from the post-Covid bounce but remain above pre-Covid levels:

New home sales recovering from rate hike fears and returning to pre-Covid highs, as in fact rate hikes increase gov deficit spending on interest expense paid to the economy, adding to incomes and spending:

Stabilizing at modest expansion levels, helped by exports due to relatively low cost US energy:

No sign yet the Fed rate hikes have worked to slow lending and demand as presumed they would:

US exports continue to grow rapidly as the US has the least expensive energy costs.
It’s an indirect way to export energy and it works to keep the $US relatively strong:

New highs and growing rapidly:

No sign of stress here:

Sales had leveled off pre-Covid, then took a Covid dip followed by a recovery bounce,
and now seem to be maybe a touch below the pre-Covid range:

Moderate growth in this leading indicator:

I have no idea what this response means as we gravitate towards nuclear war:

Housing may be bouncing back as the fear of rate hikes is overtaken by the increase in incomes:

Nice move up away from recession, though too soon to say things have reversed: