Housing starts, Japan, consumer spending, Europe, house prices

Looks like at best it’s going sideways:

Bad!!!

The Japanese economy shrank 7.8 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2020, compared with market forecasts of a 7.6 percent decline, and after a 0.6 percent fall in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. This was the third straight quarter of contraction and the steepest on record, amid the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Private consumption (-8.2 percent vs -0.8 percent in Q1), capital expenditure (-1.5 percent vs 1.7 percent), and government spending (-0.3 percent vs flat reading) all declined. In addition, net external demand subtracted 3.0 percentage points off growth, with exports falling the most since Q1 2009 (-18.5 percent vs -5.4 percent) while imports dropped for the third straight quarter (-0.5 percent vs -4.2 percent). On an annualized basis, the economy collapsed 27.8 percent in the June quarter, the deepest on record, compared to consensus of a 27.2 percent drop and after a 2.2 percent decline in the March quarter.


Now turning down as benefits expired:

Consumer spending, trade, layoffs, jobless claims, political comments

Still very weak- gone from increasing to decreasing:

Slowdown plus fiscal adjustment supporting income increased imports vs exports, and oil production going from positive to negative is still in progress:


Layoffs continue at a very high level as firms who kept employees with gov assistance are now letting them go:


New jobless claims continue at over 1 million per week for the 20th week:


Continuing claims remain above 16 million:


fyi:

Personal income and consumption

This shows the dependence on federal deficit spending to sustain incomes;

Real personal consumption has collapsed-and particularly for services- far more than in 2008/09 even with the increase
in personal income from the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment compensation. A large part of the reason
is that it isn’t safe to go to work and those services simply aren’t available. A financial crisis has been averted, but
not an economic collapse:

Income, Consumption, Savings, Consumer loans, Real estate loans

So jobs and paychecks and profits were lost, but gov deficit spending more
than made up for the lost personal income, but spending went down anyway,
as personal savings went up. Then personal income fell back some, consumption
increased some, and savings went down some.
The $1,200 distribution was a one time event, and the new deficit spending
on unemployment benefits of $600/week just expired, making it all dependent
on what Congress does next…