Personal consumption, personal spending, rig count


Settling down as fiscal transfers subside, but still elevated:


Income falling faster than consumption is growing:

Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments

Transfer payments decreased by $70 billion in July, but were still $1.7 trillion (on SAAR basis) above the February level. Most of the increase in transfer payments – compared to the level prior to the crisis – is now from unemployment insurance.

However, there will be sharp decline in unemployment insurance in August.

Oil investment down and still falling a bit:

Jobless claims, corporate profits, Fed, COVID testing

Still over 1million new claims last week. This is seriously bad:

They had already leveled off well before the collapse:


As the carpenter said about his piece of wood:
‘No matter how much I cut off it’s still too short.’
They still have the interest rate thing backwards:


Testing is down as are new cases, just like the President said:

Housing starts, Japan, consumer spending, Europe, house prices

Looks like at best it’s going sideways:

Bad!!!

The Japanese economy shrank 7.8 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2020, compared with market forecasts of a 7.6 percent decline, and after a 0.6 percent fall in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. This was the third straight quarter of contraction and the steepest on record, amid the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Private consumption (-8.2 percent vs -0.8 percent in Q1), capital expenditure (-1.5 percent vs 1.7 percent), and government spending (-0.3 percent vs flat reading) all declined. In addition, net external demand subtracted 3.0 percentage points off growth, with exports falling the most since Q1 2009 (-18.5 percent vs -5.4 percent) while imports dropped for the third straight quarter (-0.5 percent vs -4.2 percent). On an annualized basis, the economy collapsed 27.8 percent in the June quarter, the deepest on record, compared to consensus of a 27.2 percent drop and after a 2.2 percent decline in the March quarter.


Now turning down as benefits expired: