Still in a down draft with additional tariffs scheduled to kick in Dec 15. Decelerating employment growth translates into decelerating personal income growth, etc. etc. etc.

Similar pattern for wages- up some with tax cuts, down with tariffs:

Meanwhile seems the crowd is making a big deal over the larger than expected headline number of data that’s both volatile and subject to large revisions:

The 266,000 jobs added in November is an important number since it defies expectations, at least for one month, that the labor market is slowing down. The report was way better than the 187,000 jobs expected by economists.

The end of the GM strike helped inflate the number, with 41,300 jobs added in motor vehicles and parts, but the overall gain in payrolls was still about 100,000 better than expected by many economists. Manufacturing gained 54,000 overall.

“The bottom line is the labor market is cooking. It clearly says the Fed should not do anything more. The Fed can now sit back on the shelf, not have to worry about having to be pestered about lower rates,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

Wholesale inventories are too high and going the wrong direction as sales fail to keep pace and are now in contraction:

This recession could be worse than 08?
;)

A Growing Share of S&P 500 Companies’ Earnings Are Contracting

350 health professionals sign letter to Congress claiming Trump’s mental health is deteriorating dangerously amid impeachment proceedings

Makes matters worse:

US vows 100% tariffs on French Champagne, cheese, handbags over digital tax

US capital expenditures collapsing:

In contraction:

Deceleration that was temporarily interrupted by the tax cuts has resumed with the tariffs:

The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia decreased to -1 in November 2019 from 8 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 6. Shipments (-2 vs 4 in October), new orders (-3 vs 7) and backlog of orders (-11 vs 6) declined while employment softened (5 vs 13).

In contraction:

Both now showing contraction:

Top news!!!
;)

Deceleration most everywhere:

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Unexpectedly

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.71 in October from -0.45 in September and below market forecasts of -0.43. That was the lowest reading since April, as all four categories made negative contributions to the index. Production-related indicators contributed the most to decline followed by employment.

In contraction as rig counts continue to decline:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -1.3 in November 2019 from -5.1 in the previous month, above market consensus of -11.3. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016 (-2.4 vs 4.5 in October). Other measures of manufacturing activity were also negative in November: new orders (-3.0 vs -4.2); growth rate of orders (-9.3 vs -5.9); capacity utilization (-5.3 vs 3.6); and shipments (-4.5 vs 6.0). The company outlook index fell 10.9 points to -2.1; while the index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks moved up 5.0 points to 17.1. Labor market measures suggested employment levels were unchanged. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in November.

Ominous:

Turned down with tariffs: