Optimism index, Consumer sentiment, port congestion, lumber, iron ore, coal, steel, soybeans

Apparently ports are clearing:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/01/commerce-secretary-gina-raimondo-sees-clear-improvements-happening-at-congested-us-ports.html

Several commodities seem to have peaked and then fallen back.
Inflation is a continuous increase in the price level, so it doesn’t seem like that’s yet the case:

China, Brazil manufacturing, US Construction Spending, coal

Seems a global thing:

No recovery here:

Another price reversal:

GC Newcastle coal futures tumbled by over 30% to $150 per metric ton, the lowest in three months, and are more than 40% below a record high of $269.5 hit on October 5th, as China stepped up policies to boost output ahead of the winter season. China’s average daily output increased by over 1.2 million tonnes to a record at above 11.6 million tonnes on October 18th. As a result, Chinese power plants now have stocks to produce power for 16 days from less than two days’ inventories at the start of October.

GDP, Unemployment claims, China coal

Deficit spending as a % of GDP heading south fast:

US GDP Growth Disappoints

The American economy expanded an annualized 2% on quarter in Q3 2021, well below market forecasts of 2.7% and slowing sharply from 6.7% in Q2. It is the weakest growth of pandemic recovery as an infusion of government stimulus continued to fade and a surge in COVID-19 cases and global supply constraints weighted on consumption and production.

Gov’s saving money as claims fall:


Transitory?

Consumer sentiment, oil prices, federal debt/GPD

Not looking good:


Russians and Saudis now cooperating to set crude oil prices.
Not good:

Post covid fiscal contraction is underway and debt/gdp is forecast to fall a lot further.
Most of the Federal assistance was the likes of unemployment benefits which have
now expired and new spending programs from Congress seem to be not happening,
at least any time soon. Also, higher prices mean the inflation adjusted value of the
outstanding public debt falls which is a drag on private sector spending as agents seek
to sustain the value of their savings:

Unemployment claims, employment, shipping costs, oil prices

Down a bit since Federal benefits expired. This materially cuts gov. spending:

A lot worse than expected. They thought the end of Federal benefits would send people back to work.
However, a cut in Federal spending cools down aggregate demand:


Transitory comes to mind:

Saudis and Russians are working together to set price. What could go wrong???
:(

Unemployment claims, personal income and consumption, total vehicle sales

Who would have thought?


This is through August which included Federal unemployment benefits that have subsequently expired.
Income is now weaker than it was at the time of this report:


Without transfer receipts income continues to lag pre covid levels:


This is likely to go down in September with expiring Federal benefits: