Morgan Stanley on eu

German IFO, GDP & Eurogroup: After last month’s drop to 107.4, MS Research expects the IFO business climate to decline by further 0.4 points to a reading of 107.0 in November. They would expect both business expectations for the next 6 months and current business conditions to have corrected, with the expectations component losing more. The drop in sentiment underscores the fragile nature of the economic recovery and the rising concerns of business leaders about the economic policies likely to be pursued by the Grand Coalition. The PMIs yesterday confirmed that growth in the euro area has stalled in 2H. That said, a surprise shock to the downside will further strengthen case for further ECB measures. We also have the release of Q3 GDP where MS research expects growth to have decelerated materially, with headline growth declining from 0.7%Q to just 0.3%Q. On the policy front, Eurogroup finance ministers will discuss the European Commissions recommendations on the 2014 draft budgets. Market participants are likely to pay close attention to France, Italy and Spain.