When/if word gets out that depositors can lose, that contagion spreads across the euro zone with a general run on the banking system to actual cash, gold, and other currencies, which doesn’t create a cash shortage but drives the euro down further, and further weakens the credit worthiness of all the national govts.
As previously suggested, the endgame is a shut down of the payments system and a reorganization of the entire system with credible deposit insurance and central funding.
My proposal still seems the only one I’ve seen that makes any sense at all, and it’s still not even a consideration.
Europe-wide carnage we saw today.
This is not just about sovereign debt. This is about a concern about the banking system.
The word from S&P is that Greek debt holders will take a major haircut on their holdings, and that means serious problems for banks. (See the full list of victims here)
The surging CDS of Portuguese and Spanish banks is a major red flag.
From CMA Datavision: